In the baijiu industry, against the backdrop of inventory backlog, quick shipment is a common goal for both manufacturers and distributors, but at the operational level, the two diverge. Manufacturers generally follow the approach of strengthening consumer-side guidance to drive channel sales. In the past two years, major brands have spared no expense in marketing and promotions, trying every means to relieve channel pressure, but in terms of actual results, marketing leverage has struggled to boost terminal sales growth. For distributors, the brand's long-term solutions cannot quench the channel's immediate thirst. Under pressure from costs, cash flow, and other factors, more small and medium-sized distributors are bypassing the rules and resorting to cross-regional selling. As a result, price inversion has become the most widely discussed phenomenon in the baijiu industry this year. One Product, One Code: The Sword of Damocles for Channels Year-end rebates are the most direct link between manufacturers and distributors, and the purchase volume and task completion rate directly determine the rebate amount. For example, a brand's agency policy states: "Complete 60% of the annual task target, receive a rebate of 5% of the annual purchase amount; complete 80%, receive 8%; complete 100% or above, receive 10%." Unable to resist the salesperson's repeated persuasion and the temptation of year-end rebates, many distributors continue to purchase goods even when they know their inventory is already difficult to digest. Once the contract is signed, the risk is transferred, and the manufacturer breathes a sigh of relief, but the distributor is left worried—how to sell the goods? Some overwhelmed distributors have to cut losses by selling products below the guide price, or even below wholesale price, into online platforms. If costs are controlled, even selling at a loss, the year-end rebate offsets the loss, and they still make a profit. This leads to frequent price chaos. In November last year, a baijiu giant broke ties with an online platform over "multiple low-price sales of its core products," eventually terminating cooperation. This year, major baijiu brands have seen their online prices fall below guide prices, all examples of price turbulence caused by cross-regional selling. Some distributors choose to sell products at low prices into other regions, with large wholesale markets serving as springboards for these products to flow elsewhere. Brand owners are well aware of this. Typically, once a brand discovers cross-regional selling, it will deduct the distributor's deposit and require the distributor to repurchase the products at the guide price. In severe cases, the agency rights may be directly revoked. In April this year, Jiugui Liquor's Neican brand issued a notice naming two famous baijiu wholesale markets, stating that "products found to be cross-regionally sold in these markets will be penalized at 2 times the amount according to the market order management system." Some distributors revealed that some brands have begun "sting operations" in certain key wholesale markets, showing the intensity of the crackdown on cross-regional selling. In times of stability and overall price stability, manufacturers often turn a blind eye to channel cross-regional selling. After all, "products don't sell without cross-regional selling" is a consensus in the market. Cross-regional selling actually stimulates competition among distributors, accelerating the survival of the fittest, which manufacturers may welcome. But now, even Moutai has seen price inversion, and the price systems of major brands are experiencing significant shocks, making it imperative to crack down on cross-regional selling. QR codes, which are naturally traceable, have become a powerful tool for manufacturers to strictly control cross-regional selling. In the past two years, well-known brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Shede have successively launched one-product-one-code and scan-code red envelope campaigns. In the view of Li Yaoyao, head of Nanjing Jubaoshan Culture New Media, the concentrated emergence of scan-code red envelopes is due to multiple reasons: "First, baijiu prices were generally inflated before, and scan-code red envelopes are equivalent to a disguised price reduction; second, consumers scan codes to receive red envelopes, and terminals also get rewards, achieving BC integration. Third, for manufacturers, based on the backend data from scanning, they can identify core terminals for focused investment. Additionally, through scanning, manufacturers can monitor cross-regional scan rates, thereby curbing cross-regional selling." However, from the actual results, the boost to terminal sales from scan-code promotions remains to be seen. "It has a certain promotional effect," said Li Li, general manager of Yufu Jiuyuan. "The scan-code policy involves dual rebates, so terminal tobacco and liquor stores naturally have the willingness to promote it. Some consumers may also be attracted by the red envelopes, but given the current consumption situation, the effect of this stimulus should be limited. For the overall industry, scan-code red envelopes are unlikely to bring incremental growth; they mainly promote the flow of existing consumption among brands." The intervention of one-product-one-code has greatly curbed the occurrence of cross-regional selling. An example illustrates the constraint effect of introducing scan codes on cross-regional selling: private-label liquor and cross-regional selling liquor are the main circulating products in a famous baijiu wholesale market. In the first half of this year, many influential merchants in this market began sourcing base liquor from Guizhou to make private-label liquor, showing that the market space for cross-regional selling liquor has been gradually compressed. Replacement Bottle Liquor, Opened Bottle Liquor, Bare Bottle Liquor... Why Is the Baijiu Market in Chaos? Unable to sell through normal channels, and wary of the Sword of Damocles of one-product-one-code when attempting cross-regional selling, distributors face unprecedented cash flow pressure. Many distributors and terminal store owners start to exploit manufacturer policies. In this context, various unusual sales forms such as replacement bottle liquor, opened bottle liquor, and bare bottle liquor have emerged. Li Yaoyao believes there are three reasons behind this phenomenon: "First, these operations allow low-price customer grabbing and faster shipment; second, scan-code rewards are greater than direct sales profits, making it more profitable; third, some opened sauce-flavored liquor can be used to make fake liquor or as blending liquor for other spirits, enabling secondary sales." Behind the frequent market chaos lies the temptation of manufacturer policies. Manufacturer policies are divided into consumer policies and channel policies. The former targets consumers through one-product-one-code, while the latter targets distributors at all levels, providing subsidies after completing certain tasks, such as tasting liquor support and meal expense support. With the possibility of arbitrage, some distributors and terminals begin to use their own tricks. Here are a few simple examples: Case A: A brand supports distributors in holding tasting events, reimbursing related meal expenses and providing different amounts of tasting liquor based on the number of attendees. To prevent distributors from exploiting the policy, the brand requires receipts, on-site photos, and that the tasting liquor is consistent in quality with its best-selling product but with different packaging. After the event, the tasting liquor bottles must be returned. How do distributors "use" the rules? When guests arrive and the event is about to start, distributors place the tasting liquor on the table for photos, then take it away immediately. When the banquet begins, they use other liquor they distribute as the on-site drink. The tasting liquor can then be openly taken out. Afterwards, they hold a live stream, replace the bottles on site, return the empty bottles to the manufacturer, and sell the "new bottles with old liquor" at a "fracture price." For more "desperate" distributors, even invoices and photos can be forged, allowing them to profit from both money and liquor. Another situation: a brand also provides banquet support to distributors with similar conditions, but the difference is that the on-site liquor provided is exactly the same as its best-selling product, except without the outer carton packaging. Distributors can repeat the above "liquor extraction" operation, and the extracted bare bottle liquor can be sold through online channels or to regular customers. Merchants need to report banquets to the manufacturer, which will arrange salespeople to be present. However, with salespeople's incomes shrinking significantly, no one can guarantee that there won't be interest distribution between distributors and salespeople, forming a community of interests. For consumers, compared to bare bottle liquor, replacement bottle liquor is the most concerning. If they actually get new bottles with old liquor, it might be a bargain, but in reality, the risk of buying fake liquor is extremely high. Case B: A major brand's low-end liquor priced around 150 yuan is doing terminal promotions with a 100% scan-code rebate activity, with the following rules: First prize: Add 10 yuan to exchange for one bottle of this product, with a 10% chance. Second prize: WeChat red envelope of 66.6 yuan, with a 10% chance. Third prize: WeChat red envelope of 8.8 yuan, with a 50% chance. Fourth prize: 168 points (redeemable for other products in the online mall), with a 30% chance. The purpose of this activity is to promote terminal sales and also to force channels to pay for goods, as only new batches can participate. Under these rules, distributors can also profit. Suppose a distributor purchases 100 cases. After arrival, they open the cases and bottles to scan codes. In an ideal state, their income would be: 60 bottles of liquor, 6,636 yuan, and 30,240 points. The costs are the purchase cost and the 600 yuan paid for the first prize exchanges. At this point, the liquor has been opened. How to sell it? Generally, distributors have three ways to sell: sell at a discount through their own live streams; sell at low prices to tobacco and liquor stores; or sell at low prices to individual bosses or small company procurement for internal team-building events. Tobacco and liquor stores, after receiving the opened bottles from the channel, will also follow the distributor's operations, selling at low prices directly or to regular customers. In this way, the 100 cases of inventory are smoothly digested. Of course, even if each level keeps lowering prices, and the final transaction price falls below the wholesale price, as long as the rebate is obtained, everyone is happy. In addition to replacement bottle liquor, opened box liquor, and opened bottle liquor, other common channel sales methods include label-stripped liquor, code-scraped liquor, and cap-replaced liquor. The underlying logic is nothing more than finding loopholes in policies. The Tacit Balance Between Manufacturers and Distributors The various channel chaos this year also reveals that manufacturers and distributors are currently in a stalemate caused by interest distribution. As the year-end approaches, even if the channel is under pressure, manufacturers will likely continue to push inventory. "Because manufacturers also face pressure from various sources, such as operational assessment pressure and pressure from listed shareholders. To cope with these, pushing inventory to the channel and relieving their own pressure is inevitable," Li Li said. In this context, manufacturers and channels may gradually reach a subtle tacit understanding. Price stability and shipment are the core demands of brand owners this year. Regarding price stability, the intervention of one-product-one-code has controlled the problem of cross-regional selling at a fundamental level. Once cross-regional selling is constrained, the brand's price system will not collapse on a large scale. Although various chaos this year has exacerbated product price disorder to varying degrees, whether it is replacement bottle liquor, opened box liquor, opened bottle liquor, or label-stripped liquor, code-scraped liquor, and cap-replaced liquor, the final sales scenarios are narrow, limited to self-drinking, small gatherings with friends, and banquets with regular customers. Important scenarios valued by major brands, such as business banquets and weddings, are difficult for these liquors to enter. Therefore, even if some anchors on Douyin openly sell opened bottle liquor and opened box liquor, manufacturers have not taken strong action. Regarding shipment, when the manufacturer receives the distributor's payment, it basically means the manufacturer has escaped risk. From then on, no matter how the channel sells, as long as it doesn't go too far and doesn't touch the brand's bottom line, the brand is willing to let it slide. After all, in the current weak consumption environment, many policies and requirements can be appropriately relaxed. For brand owners, not giving distributors a way out often means cutting off their own future. Manufacturers and distributors need to maintain a tacit balance. The images in this article are from the internet, and the captions are for reference only, with no indicative meaning or commercial purpose.