History always moves in a zigzag, never in a straight line, and so does our market. The FMCG market has been growing for nearly forty years, a long enough spring. But the grim situation reminds us that we must face a cruel reality. According to a headline article published by New Distribution on May 5, among 78 listed FMCG companies that have released their 2023 annual reports, 26 saw revenue declines and 29 saw net profit declines, accounting for more than one-third. It is worth noting that these 78 listed companies are all leading brands in their respective categories, and based on the latest market conditions in the first quarter, the trend of market capacity stagnation continues. Today, even the most optimistic people have to recognize and admit that we are indeed in an era of shrinking volume! Objectively speaking, China's FMCG industry has never truly experienced a full cycle, and we lack a complete understanding and experience in dealing with cycles. Why has the era of shrinking volume come? Although every manufacturer and distributor has mentally prepared for the difficulty of the market, many do not understand why the era of shrinking volume has come and why it is already here. FMCG is not high-tech; it is a basic industry with the broadest audience. Its prosperity depends on "population size, consumption capacity and expectations, and supply-demand levels," and is also subject to the subjective influence of "consumption concepts." Population size: Our population growth rate has been declining since 2013, and turned negative for the first time in 2022. The slow decline in population is difficult to reverse in the long term. The FMCG economy is a population economy, which is the fundamental reason for the market capacity peaking or even declining. Consumption capacity and expectations: Our consumption capacity has been growing in the past, but the rate of income growth is also declining. Combined with various uncertainties, the weakening of consumption expectations in the short term is an indisputable fact. Supply-demand levels: As mentioned earlier, FMCG is not high-tech; whether in production or circulation, it is an industry with low barriers to entry. Therefore, most FMCG products are currently in a state of absolute oversupply. This is an industry reality that we cannot change and can only face. These three objective factors do not support continued growth in market capacity, which is the fundamental reason why the era of shrinking volume is inevitable and has already arrived. Until these three factors are reversed, the overall shrinkage of FMCG will not end. From the perspective of consumption concepts, it is a mixed bag. On the positive side, consumers' willingness to pay for brands they truly like and products and services that provide sufficient emotional value is still rising. On the negative side, a large portion of the young main consumer group is entering the low-desire "Fourth Consumption Era." The above objective facts are the fundamental reasons why our market is difficult, growth is hard, and profitability is even harder today. The transition from the era of incremental growth to the era of shrinking volume is a great change between the old and new worlds. Mr. Hou Xiaohai, Chairman of the Board of China Resources Beer Holdings, first proposed the 'New World' concept in 2021, which quickly became one of the biggest consensus in the FMCG industry. The proposal of the 'New World' has two profound meanings: First, once the new world comes, there is no return to the old world. The disappearance of volume-based growth is an important feature of the new world. There may be brief recoveries in between, but remember, before the trends of the three objective factors are reversed, all rebounds will not reverse. What we can do is abandon illusions and prepare for battle. Second, the biggest difference between the old and new worlds is the difference in worldviews. Without finding the correct survival rules of the new world, it is impossible to establish a new worldview; either you voluntarily exit the market or you will inevitably be eliminated by the market. The worldview established in the old world over the past forty years, including all our marketing systems, models, methods, and practices, was based on the cornerstone of continuous market capacity growth. For example, the "deep distribution" model, which once made significant contributions, was born from this and became a prominent doctrine. The cornerstone of the old world, "capacity growth," has collapsed. An important foundation of the new world is that the population scale will no longer expand. Therefore, the worldview of the new world is to establish a new marketing system, model, method, and practice based on the 'era of shrinking volume.' Today, we cannot yet determine how this new world will evolve. But what we can be sure of is that the 'era of shrinking volume' will be the first stage of the new world. The first stage is also the stage where the old world is collapsing and the new world has not yet been fully established, which is the most painful stage. Involution, bloody competition, and the more you give, the greater the disappointment will be the main characteristics of this stage. Before enough losers are eliminated and a clear new world order is established, this is what we must face today, and it is also the only way for us to step into the new world. So, how can we navigate the era of shrinking volume, how can we temper ourselves in pain, and find the only way to the new world? From August 20 to 22, 2024, the 2024 6th China FMCG Conference & 3rd China FMCG Hard Discount Conference & 3rd China FMCG Distributor Conference, themed 'Navigating the Era of Shrinking Volume' and hosted by New Distribution, will be grandly held in Shanghai. At this conference, we will focus on a top-tier guest matrix of leading Chinese FMCG brands, authoritatively interpret market trends, professionally analyze industry status, provide precise business docking and cooperation opportunities, help enterprises accurately grasp market pulse, formulate effective response strategies, and achieve resource sharing and coordinated development. At the same time, we will invite national leading retail platforms to thoroughly explain the hard discount retail competition model from multiple perspectives, interpret long-cycle trends and opportunities through practical cases, and help enterprises find key opportunities to achieve hard growth through the cycle. Gathering 500+ outstanding distributors from across the country, we will comprehensively interpret distributor business from the perspectives of enterprise growth paths, challenges and opportunities, and operational practices, helping distributors break through their survival radius and solidify their business inventory!