Click read original text for details Some say, trends are visible to everyone, why do others always seize them? Those who say this are likely "linear thinkers," commonly known as "one-track minds." Why do I say that? Consider how many times in your life you've "given up halfway." Giving up halfway is simply when, at some point in your life, you suddenly decide to turn over a new leaf and set a grand goal for yourself. It might be reading 50 books in a year, jogging 10 kilometers every morning, or learning a foreign language in six months... At first, you persist for a few days, feel great about yourself, and believe that if you keep going, you'll surely become a brand-new person. But in reality, most people have "three-minute passion." You find that even after trying so hard, you're still far from your goal. Because you haven't gotten a promotion or raise from reading a few books, nor have you developed six-pack abs from jogging, and you even realize your job doesn't require a foreign language... So, you become disheartened, give up on yourself, and gradually abandon your original goals. From the above, it's clear that a person gives up halfway because they discover a huge gap between their goal and their ideal. In other words, such people exhibit typical "linear thinking" when facing problems. Linear thinking is cause-and-effect thinking—a straight, uniform, one-dimensional way of thinking that assumes everything in the world is linearly connected. Using the example above, these people only believe in "no pain, no gain," ignoring the "variables" between effort and reward. That is, the results of all efforts take a specific period to materialize, and the process develops along a curved path. Therefore, if you want to better judge and seize opportunities, you must first switch away from linear thinking and adopt a more multidimensional perspective. Why Do You Always Miss the Trend? "Wasting an opportunity is far more regrettable than missing one." This saying seems to resonate with many. Ten years ago, Beijing's housing prices weren't that high; if you had money, any purchase would have multiplied several times. Five years ago, Tencent's stock wasn't absurdly expensive; a small investment would have made you "financially free" today. Three years ago, Xiaomi's Lei Jun offered me a mid-level position; joining then would have made me worth tens of millions now... The birth of a new opportunity always attracts onlookers, but why do only a few seize it? The reason is simple: most of us are under the "curse of knowledge." Wait, didn't we say knowledge is power and can change destiny? How has knowledge become a curse now? Knowledge often hinders our progress; only ignorance brings new possibilities. Don't worry, this idea isn't original to me. Over two thousand years ago, the famous ancient Greek thinker and philosopher Socrates was hailed by many as "the wisest man in the world." However, Socrates not only denied this but also said: "The reason I seem to have wisdom is that I know how 'ignorant' I am." This can be applied to the four levels of cognition that many people mention:
Unconscious incompetence: No awe, thinking you know everything;
Conscious incompetence: Beginning to have awe, open to new cognition;
Conscious competence: Having a certain depth of cognition, but still having blind spots;
Unconscious competence: The realm of great wisdom appearing foolish, always maintaining an empty-cup mindset. The so-called "ignorance" actually focuses on "not knowing what you don't know," yet assuming you "know what you know." This sounds a bit convoluted; in simpler terms: Knowledge is merely abstract concepts summarized from predecessors' experiences, but everyone has blind spots. The further your vision cannot reach, the more likely it holds the truth of the problem. For example, the biggest problem I see in many workplace newcomers is not lack of effort, but that they only solve problems using methods prescribed by their leaders. At the slightest unfamiliar difficulty, they become helpless. Why do we always rely on old methods and old cognition when facing new opportunities and problems? The reason is simple: in our dozen years of education, everyone had to answer within a unified, predetermined framework. Any deviation was marked as failing. But the workplace and life should never be closed-book exams; they are open-book tests. So, this is why many people claim to see the "trend" but never dare to step in. Essentially, it's because your "known" overcomes your "unknown," and you refuse to believe in your own "ignorance." How to Determine If the Trend Ahead Is a Pitfall When facing opportunities, the biggest test is not execution but insight. The world never lacks opportunities: artificial intelligence, big data, IoT, blockchain... one wave chases another, and the wind that blows pigs around never stops. But with so many opportunities, why do you always encounter pitfalls? Is it that there are too many liars and not enough fools, or is your judgment fundamentally flawed? Actually, neither is necessarily correct. The more likely possibility is that you mistimed it! For example, many know that before Didi, the concept of ride-sharing existed abroad, like Uber, which was defeated by Didi in China. In fact, when it comes to ride-hailing, neither Didi nor Uber was the first. The world's first internet ride-hailing platform was actually Yidao Yongche, founded by Zhou Hang. Yidao was founded in 2011, but its growth started in 2012, the first year of the mobile internet. At that time, many had a preliminary understanding of the sharing economy, which could be considered the "peak of expectations." However, many may not know the following story. Actually, there was a somewhat famous entrepreneur in China named Wang Yong, who, as early as 20 years ago, began advocating and practicing the concept of shared mobility. Who is Wang Yong? He is from Shaoyang, Hunan. He originally worked in advertising design, later founded a planning company, gained some fame in the industry, and became the secretary-general of the Brand China Industry Alliance. Why do I know Wang Yong so well? Because in 2010, he gave a small sharing session at Peking University on the topic of "carpooling." As an advocate of energy conservation and environmentalism, Wang Yong promoted the concept of "carpooling" early on. He started by using his private car to pick up passersby during commutes, and later persuaded more and more people to join the carpooling movement. As far as I know, although Wang Yong was one of the earliest practitioners of the "shared mobility" concept in China, he only entered the ride-hailing field as a competitor in 2014, with his platform called "Weiwei Pindan." 2014 was the most bustling year for shared cars: Didi, Kuaidi, Dida, 51 Yongche, Tiantian Yongche, and Weiwei Pindan... every company had countless capital backing, like stars around the moon. But then, on February 14, 2015, Didi and Kuaidi announced a merger. Once the news broke, capital immediately cooled down. Weiwei Pindan, which had been valued at 1 billion yuan within a year, suddenly fell into a state of neglect like a Waterloo. To maintain a glimmer of hope, Wang Yong invested 20 million yuan of his own money into the company. At this time, the shared mobility sector was in its "dark destruction period." No matter how Wang Yong struggled, he ultimately couldn't escape the fate of the project's collapse. The rest of the story is well known: from shared mobility to shared bikes, shared cars, shared e-scooters... the entire mobility industry went from the "climbing period" to the "saturation period." But who are the winners? Of course, those who adapt to the "life cycle" of trends. In other words, so-called opportunities are useless if you just see them; even if you act immediately, you may not gain anything. To truly seize an opportunity, you need to fully align with the development laws of things. However, to achieve this, it's not just about clever speculation; you also need to learn to view problems with more three-dimensional thinking. How to Seize Opportunities That Belong to You As the saying goes, "Everything is ready except the east wind." This is a misconception many have: they think they've worked hard enough and just need one opportunity. Speaking of this, I can responsibly tell you: Opportunities are not "seized" but "borrowed." How to understand this? You've probably heard the story of "borrowing arrows with straw boats." According to the Records of the Three Kingdoms: During the Battle of Ruxu, Sun Quan repeatedly challenged Cao Cao, but Cao Cao refused to come out. Later, Sun Quan couldn't think of a solution, so he deliberately put Zhuge Liang on the spot, demanding he produce 100,000 arrows within 10 days. Unexpectedly, Zhuge Liang calmly looked at the sky, calculated on his fingers, and said he only needed 3 days to deliver 100,000 arrows. Then, the first day passed, the second day was quiet, and just as Sun Quan was about to lose his temper, a thick fog descended on the third day. Zhuge Liang, using Cao Cao's suspicious nature, dispatched several straw boats to lure the enemy and instantly borrowed 100,000 arrows, achieving a remarkable feat. What does this story illustrate? If you consider making arrows as the goal in life, then the fog in the sky is like a trend. The cleverness of "borrowing arrows with straw boats" lies in the fact that Zhuge Liang didn't think about how to make 100,000 arrows himself, but how to "borrow the momentum." This is like when a trend comes, many think about how to jump into it and chase the trend, but only a few think about how to make the trend "work for me." This principle is simple, but many prefer to go in the opposite direction. For example, seeing others make money from cryptocurrency, they buy coins; seeing others become popular on live streaming, they start using Douyin; seeing others succeed in entrepreneurship, they rashly quit their jobs... Remember, many content entrepreneurs who succeeded in the new media dividend were veterans who had honed their skills in traditional content industries for years. How could a rookie who hasn't even written 100,000 characters suddenly get 100,000+ reads overnight? Therefore, opportunities that others can seize may not belong to you, and trends that others dare to chase may not suit you. If you truly want to create opportunities and achieve exponential growth, consider the following two points: 01. Elevate Thinking, Strike from Above Elevated thinking, as mentioned earlier, means you first need to raise your thinking framework. If you compare a person's knowledge to a circle, then inside the circle is what you know, and outside is what you don't know. In fact, the larger your circle, the more you realize your ignorance. But the scary thing is that many people can't recognize what they don't know. This requires us to look down on ourselves from a higher level. The Chinese concept of "great wisdom appears foolish" is exactly this: you may think you know a lot, but you still need to view everything with an empty cup. For example, when a trend emerges, don't follow the crowd in judging whether it's right; instead, ask a few more "whys." Apply the same principle at work: when your boss gives you a task, ask yourself why he gave it to you, and why you can do it well rather than someone else. What is "strike from above"? Those who have read "The Three-Body Problem" will easily understand. The so-called dimension reduction, simply put, is that compared to 2D, 1D is a reduction; compared to 3D, 2D is a reduction. Think about watching a blockbuster in a cinema: do you prefer a 3D experience or a 2D one? Yet, 3D and 4D didn't appear out of thin air; they evolved from 1D and 2D. In the face of life's opportunities, how can we benefit from "dimension reduction"? The method is simple: our thinking should be high-profile, but our actions should be down-to-earth. So-called down-to-earth actions first require avoiding "ineffective effort." In other words, compared to short-term gains and low-value repetitive work, we should focus on things with "long half-life & high return value." What is "half-life"? It refers to how your passion diminishes over time; "Return value" refers to the spiritual or material rewards you gain from doing something. For example, playing games or scrolling through Douyin: these have "high return value" but "short half-life," meaning the longer you do them, the less you gain. Conversely, there are many things with "long half-life & short return value," like reading, exercising, interacting with experts, and building good credit... Why talk about personal effort when discussing seizing opportunities? The reason is simple: from a multidimensional perspective, personal effort is like a "point," while trends empower you, acting as the "line, surface, and body." A point must attach to a line, and a line must attach to a surface and body. This is like when a trend comes, it first activates an economy, then an industry, then some companies, and finally individuals. So, when you look down from a high-level perspective at the development of a new species, don't forget the old saying: "To forge iron, you need a strong hammer." Remember, seizing an opportunity isn't as hard as imagined; the hard part is whether you can resonate with the trend in the same frequency and cycle. In other words, you must be able to enjoy the highs of opportunity and endure the darkness of trends. 02. Use 5W2H to Build Your Thinking "Axis" When I mention "axis," you might think of mathematical axes like X, Y, Z. In the realm of cognitive thinking, I like to compare it to a "spatiotemporal structure." For example, when writing a narrative, we first think of the seven elements: time, place, character, cause, process, plot, and result. The "axis" I refer to is the main thread of thought that connects a complete story. For instance, as a former product manager, when designing an app, I first ask myself a 5W2H question: Who: Who is the product for? → What: What is the main function? → Why: Why would users use it? → Where: What are the promotion channels and user scenarios? → When: When will the product be delivered? → How: How to organize development and marketing? → How much: Is the product free, and what's the price? In fact, each keyword in 5W2H can extend into many more questions. Many know that asking these questions helps see a problem more multidimensionally. This system isn't the most comprehensive thinking method, but it helps us understand 95% of unknown things. Like a new technology, a new industry, a new company, or even a new job opportunity. By now, you might understand. The same thing often has different interpretations in different people's eyes. The difference lies in whether you can stand at a higher level and use more dimensions to think. Masters are masters not because they have more opportunities than you, but because they can view problems from a more three-dimensional perspective. This is like everyone has a wall around them. Ordinary people stand inside the wall thinking the world is only as big as what they see, while masters stand on tiptoes to look beyond the wall, because they know the size of the world isn't determined by the wall, but by their own height. So we often joke that being tall has its benefits because you can breathe fresher air than others. Source: Mr. Moduo (mrmoduo) On October 23-24, during the Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair, New Distribution will host the "2018 FMCG City Distribution Logistics Conference." We will invite industry experts, FMCG warehousing and distribution specialists, and distributors who have transformed into unified warehousing and distribution platforms to discuss and answer questions about future trends in FMCG city distribution logistics and practical cases of distributor transformation, hoping to bring you new inspiration and thinking! The specific agenda is as follows: List of Participating Companies In no particular order Hunan Zonglan Diandan Network Technology Co., Ltd. Jingbang (Wuhan) International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. Mengniu Dairy Qinghai Hanxiang E-commerce Co., Ltd. Unilever Services (Hefei) Co., Ltd. Shanghai Branch Huicong Hunan Xuan'ang Food Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Tongdaoren Information Technology Co., Ltd. Qingdao 888 Trading Co., Ltd. Uni-President Enterprises (China) Investment Co., Ltd. Hunan Province Zhongxiang Gongpei Logistics Co., Ltd. Shenglong Ingredients COSCO Shipping Logistics Warehousing and Distribution Co., Ltd. Guangxi Yongpai Liquor Industry Co., Ltd. Shangqiu Kangrong Trading Co., Ltd. Jinan Dingzhong Economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Liaoning Bimai Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. Kunming Xiongjia Trading Co., Ltd. Shaanxi Houheng Trading Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Dingwo Enterprise Information Consulting Co., Ltd. Shaodong Jiajiale Commercial Firm Boda Trading Industrial Bank Changsha Branch Wuhan Muchen Convenience Store Chain Co., Ltd. Fujian Fuxing Yuncang Logistics Co., Ltd. Guizhou Yilimi E-commerce Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Xiao Lao'er E-commerce Co., Ltd. Jinshankoufu Shanxi Taihang Yuanjing Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Shanxi Dezhun Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Shaoyang Tongdeli Trading (Xiangbang Logistics) Huanfu Tongda Express City Distribution Beijing Xinjingxiang Food Co., Ltd. Wuhan Huizhong Tianhong Liquor Industry Co., Ltd. Changsha Paide Biotechnology Co., Ltd. Chao'an Tuqiang Guizhou Yibo Hepin Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Kang'en Industrial Development Co., Ltd. Xiangtan County Yisuhe Town Yuhua Paper Store Luoyang Yuanlang Trading Co., Ltd. Tongchuan Yaozhou District Huayuan Supermarket Co., Ltd. Hunan Yongfu Jiujiu Trading Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Chengchengtong Logistics Co., Ltd. Chongqing Kaiguo Materials Trading Co., Ltd. Beijing Xianmaixianmai Data Technology Co., Ltd. Hanchuan Qixing Trading Co., Ltd. Tongxin Jiuzhiru Trading Co., Ltd. Guizhou Meiguo Guoguo Network Technology Co., Ltd. Hubei Anjie Logistics Co., Ltd. Hubei FMCG Interconnection Technology Development Co., Ltd. ... Representatives of Distributor Transformation (Proposed) In no particular order Jiangsu Huashang City Distribution Network Co., Ltd. Chairman, Rong Jun Hubei Yijiaren Logistics Co., Ltd. Chairman, Wang Bo Sichuan Chengdu Xingrenxing Trading Co., Ltd. General Manager, Jiang Shuming Shandong Yunbang Warehousing and Logistics Co., Ltd. Chairman, Liu Jichen Chongqing Lingyu Consumer Goods Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Chairman, Tu Mingyu Guangzhou Zhongshan Wanrong Marketing Co., Ltd. Chairman, Yang Su Sichuan Bajie Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Chairman, Yuan Xia Hubei Pengdun Meiyitian Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Co-founder, Li Qiangyun Henan Xuchang Jiulegou E-commerce Co., Ltd. Chairman, Zhang Jianyong Hebei Changyi Logistics Co., Ltd. Founder, Ma Haichao Hebei (Chengde) Wulian Yuncang Co., Ltd. General Manager, Meng Yucun Xinjiang Urumqi Su'an Jinchi Logistics Co., Ltd. Chairman, Zhang Xun Jilin Sansheng Lianguo Chairman, Zhang Hailing Hebei Dunjie Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Founder, Qiang Huitao Hunan Damei Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. General Manager, Liao Lei ... -END-