Click to read the original article for details. As June arrives, Changsha has also entered the South's unique "steamer season." The dry heat is now infused with humidity, making it sweltering and unbearable, yet there's nothing to be done unless one completely escapes this environment. Community group buying, which originated in Changsha, seems to be experiencing similar weather nationwide. Unlike the dry heat of the second half of last year, when over 5 billion yuan in capital flowed in to support it, it's now a damp heat—capital seems to have cooled off, with no new financing news emerging. Some community group buying companies that received funding in various regions appear to have delivered less-than-ideal results, and some cities have seen retreats and contractions. "Steamer season" has begun! Two Extremes: Ice and Fire One piece of bad news, one piece of good news. Good news:

  1. "We just launched and have already done over 20 million." Mr. Fang, CEO of Aikedo, excitedly told the author. Aikedo is a fresh food supermarket chain in Jining, Shandong, with over 100 stores. Last year, it did 800 million in sales, and through the community group buying model, it achieved explosive sales growth.
  2. "We plan to use over 1,100 children's swimming club group leaders to achieve a 50% sales increase for diapers through group buying in each store." Mr. Liu, the operator of a leading domestic diaper brand who has already tasted success, told me.
  3. "Through community group buying for alcohol in a small county, we achieved over 2 million in sales during the Spring Festival." —Data from a liquor company.
  4. "ZTO just made a strategic investment in Sou Nong Fang. Through cooperation with express delivery companies, the model of group buying + express delivery + services is becoming the third model of community group buying." Mr. Liu, Chairman of Sou Nong Fang, was very excited about the strategic partnership with ZTO. Bad news:
  5. "The endgame for community group buying has already arrived!"
  6. "The national track for community group buying has closed; those with monthly GMV below 100 million no longer have a chance."
  7. "An internal WeChat group at a community group buying company is already doing handover of group leaders, pivoting and changing direction."
  8. "Capital is preparing to exit; they don't favor community group buying companies. This isn't an internet model." This is internal information the author obtained during a salon attended by over 10 community group buying companies. Has the endgame truly arrived for community group buying companies? Or is it just halftime? Community Group Buying Companies: Players Entering in Waves Currently, the main players in the first tier include Furong Xingsheng, Kaola Youxuan, Ninwo Nin, Dingdong Maicai, Linlin Yi, Shihuituan, Shixianghui, and Squirrel Pinduoduo, among others. These companies are climbing and overcoming hurdles under the whip of capital. In supply chain, some are supporting local suppliers to go national, while others are cooperating with strong supply chain companies like Alibaba and JD.com. In terms of GMV, some are focusing on fresh produce categories by controlling average order value and SKU mix to drive growth, while others are acquiring small and medium platforms to boost GMV. The author refers to the leading community group buying platforms as traffic-driven enterprises: Everything is for traffic; traffic is everything. Under the hostage of traffic and GMV, issues like fake orders, counterfeit goods, compliance problems, and buyer corruption are rampant. The second tier consists of regional retail enterprises, such as Aikedo in Jining mentioned above, a retail company in Zhengzhou with over 200 stores, and numerous community service stores. They already have supply chains, and when paired with community group buying SaaS systems, their efficiency improves rapidly. The challenge for these companies lies in activating and nurturing group leaders. The author predicts that in the future, community group buying will become a standard feature for all retail enterprises. Community group buying is one of the new retail models for retail enterprises, with extremely low costs and high efficiency. The third tier is brand owners. Since group leaders in community group buying are merely channels to aggregate C-end users, why not use them for one's own benefit? The author has observed some forward-thinking brand owners experimenting with community group buying, establishing an M2C model of brand owner—group leader—consumer. By building the brand's "private domain traffic," they can also achieve community group buying with strong social attributes and high-quality, low-priced products. The fourth tier is the express delivery + group buying + services model. Currently, the author has observed cases like Sou Nong Fang in Changsha, mainly through strategic cooperation with ZTO. As the aforementioned players enter in waves and engage in mixed battles, the author sees no sign of the endgame for community group buying. Instead, it's a wave after wave. If we talk about the end of momentum, it can only be said that the capital-backed momentum for community group buying has reached its end—no new investments are coming in; what remains is a game of follow-on investments or mergers. In the new competitive landscape, the first tier has yet to determine a winner, and national city coverage hasn't exceeded half. How can we talk about an endgame? Among the remaining three tiers, the author personally favors the second and third tiers for their potential to disrupt the market. This is because they are one of the tools for reaching C-end users in the new era. Through community group buying, they greatly release sales efficiency and increase supply chain flow—a revolution in efficiency. From an economic perspective, social division of labor is always more efficient than doing everything oneself. Providing retail enterprises and brand owners with good tools to reach C-end users and improve distribution efficiency is a more macro transformation, breaking down the closed walls between supply and demand sides. For companies doing community group buying, there is no longer any opportunity. The community group buying model is just getting started. The Imagination of Community Group Buying Companies: How to Define This Business? Is community group buying just an online grocery shopping business? Of course, the fresh produce market is large enough. For outsiders, it's not wrong to explain it simply as an online grocery shopping business. However, if it's only defined as a grocery shopping business, or to cater to that logic, failing to try other consumption scenarios in operations is a sign of "laziness." You can start with "online grocery shopping" to gain traffic and scale, but internally, you must cultivate a small "blue army" team to work on things different from "household daily consumption scenarios." You need to think about whether there are opportunities to create value in "maternal and infant consumption scenarios" or "elderly consumption scenarios." The author has seen the latest practices; because everyone is losing money in fresh produce, once capital stops providing blood transfusions, where is the value? Don't use tactical diligence to mask strategic laziness. Take a turn, and maybe the gold mine is right there. Is community group buying based on traffic logic or value logic? What is traffic logic? The internet model is traffic logic. Through subsidy wars, acquisition wars, and free-for-all wars, companies become industry traffic leverage within 2-3 years—one survives, many die. The company becomes an industry public utility, its traffic becomes public traffic, and it redistributes to participating enterprises through fees (advertising, marketing, data fees, etc.), profiting from value-added services. Euphemistically, it's "making business easy for the world," commonly known as: "The wool comes from the dog, and the pig pays." This is the author's personal view—Luckin, OFO, and Didi all follow this logic. The first half of the internet suited this logic well. Or rather, any TO C business suits it. Is community group buying a TO C business? A group leader is not a C; they are a channel, a B. What is value logic? Essentially, it's the logic of supply chain revolution. You can only honestly and truly improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance customer experience. In the end, community group buying companies become innovative supply chain companies, essentially breaking down the walls between production areas, sales areas, and delivery points, improving rapid response and network collaboration. Slow, heavy, bitter, tiring, and clumsy! Only those who try it know. In summary, wake up from the opium and aphrodisiac of traffic, and from the superimposed scenario track. Seeing the influx of many peers, finding your own competitive advantage, and deepening your base market might be a refreshing breeze in the humid heat—a "new turning point" under the false fire.