“Buying Traffic Is Death, Not Buying Traffic Is Also Death”: How Did We Fall into the Trap Again?

When faced with the dilemma of choosing between certain death and suicidal action, you are not confronting the real problem!

-01- Let's start with the once-popular concept of "terminal is king." That was during the era when hypermarkets were rising. The president of Carrefour China, Shi Lerong, frequently became a guest of honor at government business conferences across the country, with organizers fussing over him with utmost respect. Carrefour's store opening pace was ten per year, which was considered very restrained. In enterprises, terminal work was called "the final kick" and was deemed extremely important. "Display" was called the life of sales. Retailers and many marketing experts advocated concentrating corporate resources on terminals, calling it "terminal is king." There were also passionate slogans like "fight to the death at the terminal" and "decide victory at the terminal." The logic was roughly: Since the final kick is so important, if we put on eleven forwards, Chinese football could qualify for the World Cup. The result was that terminal resources became increasingly scarce and expensive. Investment increased, but output decreased. Everyone lamented: Doing terminals is death, not doing terminals is waiting for death. At that time, some famous "golden quotes" were widely circulated: "The initial investment is large, but once the market opens, the subsequent investment naturally decreases." "You may not be profitable in my store, but there is a brand effect that can drive the entire market, equivalent to advertising." Does that sound familiar? The colorful clouds floating in the sky—do they look like the 500 yuan you owe me from last week? Similar scenarios have played out repeatedly. We also experienced the era of "advertising is king," which resulted in "doing advertising is death, not doing advertising is waiting for death." The health supplement industry had the era of "concept is king," which also resulted in "doing concepts is death, not doing concepts is waiting for death." In recent years, "advertising is king" has long been forgotten, and the trend of "terminal is king" has passed, but a bigger trend is growing stronger: "traffic is king." Of course, under the surge of "traffic is king," there are still cries of "buying traffic is death, not buying traffic is waiting for death," and there are still deceptive words like "once the market opens, the subsequent investment decreases" and "equivalent to advertising." Only now the wording is more sophisticated, such as "integration of brand and effect."

-02- "Doing something is death, not doing something is waiting for death"—we seem particularly prone to falling into such dilemmas. Just as we climb out of one ditch, we fall into another pit. How does that happen? Let's find an easy-to-understand scenario. In Chapter 36 of "Water Margin," Song Jiang offended the Mu brothers in Jieyang Town and fled all the way to the Xunyang River. With a great river blocking the way ahead and bullies chasing from behind, and Song Jiang unable to swim, he was in a dilemma: "Crossing the river is death, not crossing is waiting for death." At the critical moment, a helpful citizen, Zhang the Boatman, rushed over to "empower" Brother Gongming, enthusiastically offering to ferry him across. But unexpectedly, when the boat reached the middle of the river, the helpful citizen transformed into a river pirate. Boatman Zhang Heng revealed his true colors, demanding more than just the boat fare. "Sword noodles" or "wonton"? Choose one, you dark fellow. Sword noodles means chopping you and throwing you into the river; wonton means tying you up and throwing you into the river. It was no longer about death or waiting for death, but "taking advantage of your illness to take your life." The key point is: how did Brother Gongming solve this problem that went from "dilemma" to "life-threatening"? The answer is just two words—brand. As long as Song Jiang displayed his brand as "Timely Rain of Shandong," all heroes would bow down in submission. Whether you are the River Dragon or the Black Whirlwind, the Winged Tiger or the Dwarf Tiger, you would only kowtow to him. Huawei, Xiaomi, and Laoganma never worry about traffic issues. OV, Gree, and Nongfu Spring never let themselves be forced into a "dilemma choice." Pinduoduo rushes to give Tesla traffic, subsidizing sales for them, but Tesla doesn't appreciate it and even refuses to ship goods. Those physical enterprises that have long adhered to value never have to choose between "death" and "waiting for death." If anyone dares to put me in a dilemma, I'll make you even more embarrassed. On this matter, Sister Dong Mingzhu has the most say. The ruthless Mr. Huang Guangyu silently gave thirty-six likes.

-03- Once you fall into the dilemma of "waiting for death" and "death," what lies before you is not the real problem. Your problem may seem to be "terminals not moving goods," "no traffic," "no conversion," but in reality, it might be that your product lacks appeal, lacks application scenarios, lacks good experience, lacks brand appeal, or even lacks market demand. Just like Brother Gongming's "crossing the river is death, not crossing is waiting for death," it was because he offended the Mu brothers, fled in panic without a clear direction, and failed to show his credentials in time. It had nothing to do with the Xunyang River. If there were no Xunyang River, there would be the Yangtze River; if no Yangtze River, there would be the Valley of No Return. As long as you lack genuine market value, there will always be a hurdle that makes crossing it death and not crossing it waiting for death. After the previous "doing advertising is death, not doing advertising is waiting for death" and "doing terminals is death, not doing terminals is waiting for death," now we have "buying traffic is death, not buying traffic is waiting for death." In the future, there will be "doing conversion is death, not doing conversion is waiting for death," "doing private domain is death, not doing private domain is waiting for death," "doing middle platform is death, not doing middle platform is waiting for death"... The ways to die are diverse and amusing. Root problems never present such dilemmas, such as customer perceived value or demand. No one ever jumps out and says, "doing value is death, not doing value is waiting for death," or "meeting market demand is death, not meeting market demand is waiting for death." So when encountering a dilemma, the first step is to step back from the current problem, find the root problem, and see what is really happening. Pay special attention to "helpful citizens." "The girl wants to cross the river, who will push me?" In the crowd, there will surely be a group of experts shouting in unison: "I'll push you!" One by one, "masters" arrive on colorful clouds. If you encounter a "traffic dilemma," they come to solve your traffic problem; if you encounter a "live-streaming dilemma," they come to solve your live-streaming problem. The "Internationale" has long taught us: "There has never been a savior." These helpful citizens, once they reach the middle of the river, either become boatmen who fleece you—consider yourself lucky if they only take some wool—or they are exposed as fake Li Guis, and in the rough waters, both you and they fall into the river.

-04- The reasoning is not hard to understand, and our physical business owners are smart people. Why do they still frequently fall into pits? This can also be explained by two simple words: one is "illusion" and the other is "delusion." Illusion is when we mistake recent correlation for causation. When a company wants sales, it runs ads, sales rise, so "advertising is king." When terminals are pushed, sales rise, so "terminal is king." Later, when traffic is bought, sales rise, so "traffic is king." The one who scores the goal is the forward, so many companies have the impulse to field eleven forwards. The various "kings" that caused trouble before were all the links closest to the transaction. Even if we deeply understand that sales are a comprehensive result and we need to work on product differentiation, better customer experience, and brand identity, Once we face performance pressure, our eyes involuntarily fixate on the link closest to the sale. This is instinct. Old Miao said that Dong Mingzhu believes live-streaming sales is a gimmick, indicating she doesn't place much importance on traffic. Some people commented that Gree is a large enterprise, so it can afford not to value traffic; if a small enterprise doesn't value traffic, it can only wait for death. This precisely reverses the causal relationship: Gree, Huawei, Nongfu Spring, and Laoganma became large enterprises because they didn't value traffic but valued product competitiveness, strategic competitiveness, and market demand. It's not that they don't value traffic because they are large enterprises. Those companies that follow the traffic baton truly come to no good end. With such an "illusion" foundation, traffic owners can create a delusion. This delusion is that "traffic is extremely important and scarce." A business common sense repeated many times: traffic itself does not generate direct commercial value; it can only be monetized when parasitic on a product. Traffic owners want to sell traffic at a good price, so they need to emphasize the importance of traffic on one hand and create traffic anxiety on the other. Under the advocacy of major traffic platforms and some media people, "traffic is the essence of business" has been blown up into a business "common sense." Sales = Traffic × Conversion × Average Order Value. This so-called "business formula," which only stays at the level of elementary arithmetic, is actually taken as the golden rule of operations. At the same time, with their advocacy, "traffic exhaustion," "traffic peaking," and "traffic becoming more expensive and scarcer" quickly became "consensus."

-05- Is traffic really becoming scarcer? I have asked many marketing practitioners, and most answered affirmatively; I also asked many business owners, and most were skeptical. To answer this question simply, we need to dig to the root and directly ask the parties involved—yes, the ordinary people. For example, interview the aunties dancing in the square. They will surely first ask you what traffic is. You open an app on your phone and tell them that every time they view, click, or spend time, that's traffic. Then you tell them that this thing will become scarcer and more expensive. I bet they will look at you with sympathy: "Is this kid's brain broken? Has he been brainwashed by some pyramid scheme?" Premier Li Keqiang sadly said that 600 million people in China earn less than 1,000 yuan a month. For ordinary people, attention is not valuable; there's plenty of it. Money is what's valuable. Twenty-four hours a day, except for sleeping, we are using attention. If this thing could be sold for money and became scarcer and more expensive, we would all be rich. Is this the legendary "while scrolling Douyin and shopping on Taobao, we push America back to an agricultural country"? Come on, who wants to buy our traffic? We won't jack up prices. Count in all our aunts and uncles, and we'll sell until you go bankrupt. When doing business, you must first talk about common sense: If we define traffic by attention, with a population of over a billion, each person has 24 hours a day, and the total won't change much. What changes is that our attention shifts with changes in carriers, identities, ages, and needs. Traffic has not dried up, nor has it peaked. Users are there, and attention is there. It's vast, endless, and constantly shifting. It's natural for traffic owners to emphasize the importance of traffic. All "scarcity" is hyped. But when there is truly more, the price does go up. When more and more companies see through this trick and burst this delusional bubble, the value of traffic can truly return. In the end, all internet platforms are essentially advertising companies. It's just that the former advertising resources are now called "traffic portfolios." The dead "advertising is king" has been reincarnated under a new name: "traffic is king." For physical enterprises, this doesn't matter. Let them play their games. After experiencing so many messy "XX is king," we are still fine, and we remain the main force of the social economy now and in the future. If you focus on your value, your product, and your brand, and you can provide a stronger consumer experience and stronger value resonance, you will naturally be a better "traffic host." Platforms know best that through better hosts, realizing user value is the best way to monetize traffic. Traffic owners always support when support is needed and fleece when fleecing is possible. It depends on which path you take. Sister Dong does live-streaming, and Lei Jun holds press conferences. They never worry about traffic issues. As long as you are "Timely Rain," why fear the "Black Whirlwind"?

Source: Old Miao Tears Marketing (ID: yiheyingxiao) Tips will be paid 400-2000 yuan once adopted.