Author: Liu Chunxiong Source: Teacher Liu's Forum (ID: liuchunxiong1964) There is a good article, "What You Believe, You Will See." I agree with this statement; people selectively observe and selectively remember. In 2016, there was an anecdote. Liu Qiangdong proposed a 200% growth target, and some said it couldn't be done. Liu Qiangdong said, "I don't want you to prove it can't be done; I want you to prove how it can be done." That is the direction of proof. Correct conclusions need proof, but wrong conclusions can also be proven flawlessly. Correct conclusions may be proven with difficulty, while wrong decisions may be proven more easily. All this depends on the direction of proof. Whatever you want to prove, you can find evidence. For example, if you want to prove that China is terrible, there are too many materials. To prove that China is good, there will be even more data. Accomplishing something requires only one reason. If something cannot be done, there can be many reasons. You cannot judge whether something can be done by the number of reasons. 01 Sometimes, wrong views are proven with great confidence, but in fact, they are just defending one's own position. The arguer's own position and way of thinking determine the direction of the argument. The direction of the argument determines the conclusion of the argument. When Deng Xiaoping proposed resuming the college entrance examination after the Cultural Revolution, the then head of the education department reported to Deng Xiaoping, "The college entrance examination is very complex; it's impossible to do it this year." Deng Xiaoping did not argue with him at all, but only said, "If you can do it, do it; if you can't, I know who can." Deng Xiaoping wanted to make it happen, so he didn't care about the difficulties. The then education department head didn't want to do it, so he raised the difficulties. The fact is, no matter how many difficulties, as long as you want to do it, you can make it happen. 02 In practical work, there are often many awkward things. For example, when there is a new idea and you want someone to investigate or implement it, there will always be people who instinctively raise objections. Although in the end they will do it under pressure, seeing such things often makes me think: why do most people instinctively reject a potentially good idea? In marketing, you must have many ideas, many innovations, and do things that have never been done before. Since it's something not done before, you need to argue. There are two directions of thinking: one is to try to prove that this thing can be done and will succeed; the other is to try to prove that it cannot be done and will fail. Perhaps both can find sufficient reasons, and the difference often lies only in the direction of the argument. Some try to prove that it can be done, seeking favorable evidence. Others look for evidence that it cannot be done, trying to prove it won't work. ▲ People cannot be "used," only "developed." Management guru Drucker said: "The decision-making process often does not start with gathering facts, but with opinions. The so-called opinion is a 'hypothesis yet to be confirmed.' If an opinion cannot be confirmed, it is worthless." As a manager, you often have many ideas, which are what Drucker calls opinions. Drucker said, "If a person is experienced in a certain area and yet has no opinions, it shows that the person lacks keen observation and is dull-minded." Even in unfamiliar fields, as long as you get involved for a while, you will form many opinions. Drucker's statement is similar to Hu Shi's "bold hypothesis, careful verification." 03 Many times, because we have positions first, we have views later. We can no longer make bold hypotheses, let alone carefully verify. Therefore, it is very important to step out of positions and seek insights. I often visit the market, whether as a manager or as a consultant. It is either a process of confirming insights or forming insights. The process of confirming insights is to find evidence for decision-making. The process of forming insights requires as much observation as possible; every piece of information may stimulate and form ideas. When I enter a new industry or a new company, when I first visit the market, I often form ideas (insights) in the first or second market, but such ideas are immature and need to be confirmed. By visiting more markets, they may be confirmed or falsified. So, when visiting the market, I do not express opinions in the early stage; not expressing opinions does not mean I have no ideas. Because ideas need more information to confirm, I need to visit more markets. Once the idea is confirmed, I can put forward my view. Once the idea is confirmed, or the idea can be applied on a larger scale, the research can end. Some people think research is to understand the market situation; I disagree. Research is to form more and newer ideas, or to confirm ideas. 04 When visiting the market, you must ask questions. Every question has a purpose: either to confirm your own ideas or to collect information to form new ideas. People who don't know how to ask questions first lack ideas. Some questions seem simple, even childish to some, but because they hide the ideas you need to confirm, they are not simple. Marketing planning expert Ye Maozhong said that his surveys mainly aim to discover inspiration; as for questionnaire-based and data-based surveys, they can be entrusted to research companies. If you do questionnaire surveys without ideas, unless the researcher plans to do a second round of research. Forming ideas (insights) is hard to delegate to others; it's best to do it yourself. Therefore, senior management must often go to the market. Because the formation of ideas is uncertain, managers' research is often not questionnaire-based but random. Positioning expert Trout said that there must be vice president-level people going to the market; this makes sense. Many companies entrust research to professional companies. Professional companies certainly have their expertise, but the discovery of inspiration is hard to replace. Ye Maozhong believes that professional companies' research mainly confirms inspiration or provides more data support for inspiration. This also makes sense. 05 Working empirically does not require so many ideas. Creative work must have ideas. A person's work experience roughly forms two kinds of results: one is continuously forming new insights, the other is forming fixed conclusions. There are too many stubborn conclusions and a lack of new insights. Such people are very scary; the more experienced they are, the scarier. Conclusions are confirmed insights. Drucker said, "Since there is a conclusion, many facts must have been collected. Anyone who has worked in statistics can appreciate this, so they often distrust statistics the most." Drucker believed this is actually a matter of position, because the provider of mathematics has a position. Unfortunately, many people's long-term work experience forms not insights but conclusions. People with insights tend to explore new things; people with conclusions not only lack insights themselves but also tend to deny others' insights and explorations. When arranging innovative work, I generally arrange two types of people: one is newcomers without experience. Although newcomers have no insights, they also have few conclusions and no positions, so they won't instinctively resist and are willing to implement; the other is those with both experience and insights. Such people are rare but precious. 06 When a person has too many fixed conclusions, they must be in one of two states: first, they have accumulated experience, and experience must be what they identify with; experience is a conclusion they identify with; second, they deny new ideas and new insights, which are conclusions they don't identify with, but unacknowledged conclusions are still conclusions. The more conclusions, the fewer insights. The more you lack your own ideas, the easier it is to deny others' ideas. For a new idea, if a person naturally raises objections, it is likely that they have already drawn a conclusion. People who work on the front line for a long time should know the front-line situation better. Why do senior management still need to do research? Isn't it better to let front-line employees report the situation? The difference is significant because front-line personnel already have too many conclusions and will naturally deny many new ideas. Researchers have no conclusions; they either confirm ideas or form many new ideas. If researchers do not achieve these two points, it means they are unqualified. Research is not about producing a pile of data, but what ideas the data can support. For example, a salesperson reports that there are dozens of competitors, trying to prove that competition is fierce. But management may conclude that the market is not fierce at all, just chaotic. Because so many companies can survive, it only proves that competition is not fierce enough. In fact, the salesperson may just want to prove "I have tried my best" and "the poor performance is not due to our lack of effort." Management concludes that "competition is chaotic but not fierce" because they may have a new idea, that is, how to do marketing in such an environment. 07 Research forms ideas (insights), which is insight. Insight is an abstract process, forming something that did not exist before. Insight is not easy; you must see the essence through phenomena and touch the soul of information. Ye Maozhong said that investigation is to discover inspiration, which is what this means. Insight does not require complete information; forming ideas and insights is the same. Therefore, forming ideas and insights requires association, from one point to another, from part to whole. Association is stimulated by information. Because ideas and insights do not come from complete information but from fragmented information, ideas and insights need more information to confirm or falsify. There are two directions to confirm an idea: one is to find favorable evidence to prove the idea is feasible; the other is to find unfavorable evidence to prove the idea is not feasible. An idea that is completely feasible or completely infeasible are two extremes. Since it is an idea, it is generally not at the extremes. So, there are usually favorable and unfavorable factors. My observation is: whether you first think of favorable or unfavorable factors already shows the prover's position and way of thinking. The position determines the direction of information search. Once an idea is proposed, few people are completely neutral, but some try to be neutral. Whether an idea can work, the more academic approach is to compare favorable and unfavorable factors, then balance and trade off. In fact, real decision-making is not like this. Whether a new idea can succeed does not depend on the comparison of favorable and unfavorable factors, but on the utilization of favorable factors. Even if there is 1 favorable factor versus 99 unfavorable factors, as long as the favorable factor is used well, the new idea is likely to succeed. 08 For a long time, we have had a wrong perception: to negate something, only one negative opinion is needed; to affirm something, all positive opinions are needed. The result is perfectionism, and good ideas are often rejected. For ideas proposed by others, my approach is: as long as it is not particularly unreliable, and as long as the investment required is not large, let others do it. Once results are achieved, then judge whether to promote it. Whether something can be done depends on how many favorable factors there are; whether something cannot be done depends on how many unfavorable factors there are. If there is proof that it can be done, you will look for more favorable factors. Otherwise, you will look for more unfavorable factors. Which factors you look for is determined by your prior position. Most people have a position beforehand. In working together, you will quickly find that once you have a new idea, some people always argue positively, unless it really doesn't work. Some people always argue negatively. This has nothing to do with knowledge, but has a lot to do with a person's way of thinking. Once a negative way of thinking is formed, it is easy to become a permanent opponent. For those without practical experience, favorable and unfavorable factors are abstract. But for some, once they discover a favorable factor, they will associate a series of methods to use it. The existence of unfavorable factors is precisely because they cannot be handled, so they become unfavorable. For example, when raw material prices rise sharply, most people see it as an unfavorable factor, but for those with strong new product promotion capabilities, the price increase may become a favorable factor. 09 Having insights is not enough; to accomplish things, you also need the ability to utilize favorable factors. Listing factors on a SWOT table is an academic approach, not an entrepreneurial one. Entrepreneurs do not focus on unfavorable factors, but on maximizing the value of favorable factors, that is, the ability to utilize favorable factors. The reason entrepreneurs can often do things that others think cannot be done is that they do not see the entrepreneur's ability to utilize favorable factors. Once, I communicated with the boss of an industry leader. Regarding a management measure that caused much criticism, the boss said, "If everyone has no objections, it means it is not a good method." This is the different way entrepreneurs think. Have new insights (ideas), find favorable factors to prove the insights, and then fully utilize the favorable factors. This is the logic of innovators' success. Of course, unfavorable factors should also be guarded against, but success does not depend on how many unfavorable factors there are, but on the ability to utilize favorable factors. -END-