2024 was an extraordinary year for the retail industry. During this year, the baijiu industry fell from its pedestal. Affected by declining income expectations among residents, the industry shrank significantly, and the clearing of liquor enterprises became the most realistic portrayal of consumer goods companies represented by baijiu in 2024. Even Moutai's zodiac liquor saw price drops, with many winning bidders failing to take delivery. In the same year, Wahaha founder Zong Qinghou passed away, and his daughter Zong Fuli took over Wahaha through a曲折 process, leading this FMCG empire back to its peak. Also in this year, the sale of Gaoxin Retail, the parent company of RT-Mart, known as the "King of Supermarket Land Warfare," finally came to an end, with Alibaba selling it to DCP Capital at a loss of 13.1 billion yuan in early 2025... Looking back at 2024, all the small events converged into a magnificent wave in the retail industry. And from the grand narrative of the future development of the FMCG retail industry, all major events in 2024 will eventually become footnotes for the development of the retail industry in 2025. In 2024, which events in the FMCG industry are worth remembering? How will they profoundly affect the future development of the FMCG industry? This article is written to recall the past and look forward to the future.
Wahaha Founder Zong Qinghou Passes Away Due to Illness In the history of China's FMCG industry, Zong Qinghou is an unavoidable name. As one of the first private entrepreneurs after the reform and opening-up, and a former richest man in China, the Wahaha Group he founded, after more than 30 years of development, once became synonymous with China's national FMCG enterprises. Zong Qinghou was also an undisputed leader and innovator in China's beverage industry, and one of the milestone figures in China's business history. In 2010, 2012, and 2013, Zong Qinghou topped the Forbes rich list three times in four years, becoming the richest person in mainland China. Tencent Finance once commented: He is known as a marketing master, a management master, and an entrepreneur closest to the market. The joint sales system he founded in 1994 is still imitated and used by a large number of FMCG companies, promoting innovation and development of the industry's marketing model. On February 25, 2024, Zong Qinghou passed away due to illness at the age of 79. This also triggered "wild buying" of Wahaha products by many consumers to express their remembrance of this legendary figure. Subsequently, Zong Qinghou's daughter, Zong Fuli, officially took over Wahaha. Despite a brief resignation风波, Zong Fuli officially took the helm of the Wahaha FMCG empire and ultimately delivered an annual revenue of 70 billion yuan in 2024. As the first report card after Zong Fuli took over, the 70 billion yuan achievement means Wahaha has finally caught up with its performance scale of a decade ago, returning to the industry's first tier.
Pangdonglai "Overhauls" Yonghui In recent years, traditional supermarkets have frequently closed stores, entering a "darkest moment." Public data shows that in the first three quarters of 2024, Yonghui Superstores' revenue was approximately 54.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.14%; Zhongbai Group achieved operating revenue of 8.13 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. In the first half of 2024 alone, nearly 500 supermarkets closed, showing the severity of the industry's development. As a top student among traditional supermarkets, Yonghui Superstores had over 1,000 stores nationwide at its peak, with annual revenue close to 100 billion yuan. However, in recent years, revenue has declined year after year. In 2023, Yonghui Superstores' revenue was only 78.64 billion yuan, and its net profit attributable to the parent company has been heavily loss-making for three consecutive years, with total losses reaching 8.036 billion yuan. Change for Yonghui is urgent. From May 5 to 6, 2024, Yonghui Superstores' chairman Zhang XuanSong personally led a team, selecting elites from across the country to form an adjustment team, and went to Xuchang to visit Yu Donglai, touring Pangdonglai's stores, logistics centers, central kitchens, and employee homes. The Pangdonglai adjustment of Yonghui thus began. In employee management: Increase employee salaries, adjust business hours, ensure store employees get more rest, and guarantee that frontline employees' monthly take-home pay is no less than 4,000 yuan; Store planning: Adjust and renovate store layouts, redesign customer flow lines, changing the traditional hypermarket's诱导式 layout of first supplying goods, then groceries, then fresh produce; Supply chain integration: Introduce Pangdonglai's best-selling products, optimize product quality, lower product prices, and enhance the supply capacity of fresh and processed foods in stores; Service optimization: Massively change Yonghui employees' customer service standards and increase employees' autonomy. Living up to expectations, the Pangdonglai adjustment of Yonghui has achieved remarkable results. Public data shows that after the adjustment, Yonghui stores have daily customer flow exceeding 100,000, with daily sales close to 2 million yuan. In the secondary market, once the adjustment information was announced, Yonghui's stock price revived, soaring from a low of 2.83 yuan per share to 7.837 yuan per share, an astonishing increase. This also laid the groundwork for Miniso's direct investment. On September 23, Miniso acquired a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores for 6.27 billion yuan through its wholly-owned subsidiary. Miniso founder Ye Guofu openly stated that after seeing the Pangdonglai-adjusted Yonghui store, he decided to invest in Yonghui. Looking at the traditional supermarket industry, aside from objective factors such as e-commerce impact and the emergence of new channels and formats, the author believes that the fundamental reasons for the decline of traditional supermarkets are their own固化 business models, aging product structures, weak service capabilities, and severe mismatch between supply and demand. To be frank, Pangdonglai's products are not cheap, but why are so many consumers willing and eager to buy? The core is that when other e-commerce platforms and traditional retail enterprises are racking their brains to engage in zero-sum games with consumers, only Pangdonglai truly stands on the side favoring consumers. When the interests of the enterprise, employees, and consumers conflict, Pangdonglai and its employees' ingrained cognition makes them clear about what is acceptable and what is not. This is the true essence of Pangdonglai as a company.
From Export to Going Global If you don't go global, you're out of the game. This is also true for the FMCG industry. With the declining number of new births each year and slowing market growth, the domestic market is showing signs of saturation. In this context, many FMCG companies have turned their sights overseas. Unlike in the past, when many FMCG companies went overseas relying solely on distributors fighting alone, with trade but no strategy, in recent years, many companies have begun to set up overseas headquarters and set sail. What was once an optional choice has officially become a must for many consumer goods companies. "Snow King goes to war, leaving nothing behind." Take Mixue Bingcheng as an example: In Vietnam, a population of 98 million has been "crammed" into 1,300 Mixue stores; in Indonesia, that number is over 2,300; and Mixue can also be seen in Japan, Australia, and several other overseas countries. As of September 30, 2024, Mixue Bingcheng, with 45,000 stores covering China and 11 overseas countries, has become the largest ready-made beverage enterprise in China and even globally. Also successfully "conquering territories" overseas is Genki Forest. As early as 2019, Genki Forest launched its globalization strategy. To date, Genki Forest has successfully entered consumer markets in more than 40 countries and regions, including the United States, Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, and in 2024 completed listings in 591 Costco stores in the U.S. and 109 Costco stores in Canada, officially completing the leap from Southeast Asian shelves to U.S. Costco. In addition, many brands such as Bestore, Qiaqia, Panpan, Yanjin Shop, Wanglaoji, and Dongpeng Special Drink have also started their overseas expansion in recent years, showing strong growth momentum and innovation capabilities. Thanks to China's complete industrial chain foundation and strong production capacity, there is reason to believe that going global will remain the main theme for Chinese consumer goods companies seeking growth for a long time to come.
Guzi Economy The Guzi economy experienced explosive growth in 2024. Public data shows that in 2024, the scale of China's Guzi economy reached 168.9 billion yuan, an increase of over 40% compared to 2023. It is expected that by 2029, the market size is expected to reach 308.9 billion yuan. The so-called Guzi economy, derived from "Goods," refers to anime, manga, game, and other IP-based derivative products. These products not only have the value of the product itself but also carry consumers' love for the original IP, becoming emotional sustenance and social tools. The explosion of the Guzi economy reflects that consumers are no longer simply pursuing the functional value of products when consuming, but are paying more attention to the emotional and social value behind the products. Luckin Coffee is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Guzi economy explosion. On August 19, 2024, Luckin launched a co-branded limited套餐 and peripheral products with "Black Myth: Wukong," introducing the new Black Myth Tengyun Americano. Consumers who purchased the set could receive limited-edition 3D poster lenticular cards, three co-branded cup sleeves, and other peripherals. The campaign immediately sparked widespread attention on social media, with related product searches increasing by 1379% within a week. The highest topic discussion on Weibo reached 20 million, with total revenue exceeding 6 billion yuan, showing the热度. According to incomplete statistics, Luckin conducted at least 37 co-branded marketing campaigns in 2024, more than in 2023, making IP co-branding marketing a norm. Returning to the FMCG industry, competition among enterprises has entered the deep water zone, testing organizational and innovation capabilities. To some extent, consumer spending has not declined but has shifted. Whether brands can capture the存量 shift of consumers tests not only their insight into consumers, ability to explore consumption scenarios, and product innovation capabilities, but also their organizational capabilities in brand, marketing, and flexible manufacturing.
AI The wave of new technology is overwhelming. In 2024, AI swept the globe with unprecedented speed and influence. With the gradual popularization of new technologies, all industries are worth redoing in the AI way. As digitalization deepens across industries, AI is gradually penetrating all dimensions of enterprise development. Typical scenarios in the FMCG industry, such as visit sales, route planning, image recognition, AI customer service, AI assistants, sales forecasting, production forecasting, and intelligent replenishment, have already been implemented in many leading enterprises. In 2024, the author participated in several consumer retail technology-related activities and found that AI's penetration speed in the FMCG industry is much faster than many people think. For example, Yili's AI system has already applied models to various dimensions of business value, quickly converting AI technical capabilities into productivity for business operations; Nestlé has used AI technology for user profiling and behavior analysis, providing customized coffee recommendations and promotional information to consumers, further improving marketing precision and conversion rates... Although some AI capabilities are still in the generative AI stage, with the improvement of infrastructure such as computing power and application models, AI will inevitably reconstruct the business model, management model, and operational model of the FMCG industry again. The future is already here; it's advisable to make small trials and errors, but never turn a blind eye.
Snack Chain Stores: Intensified Competition and Accelerated Mergers and Acquisitions During the economic downturn, the snack chain track entered the public eye with unprecedented attention. From germination and exploration in 2017-2019, to rapid expansion in 2020-2023, in 2024, the snack chain track finally entered the stage of competition and integration. In 2024, the Mingming Henmang Group, formed by Snacks Busy and Zhao Yiming Snacks, took the lead in breaking the 10,000-store mark, with store numbers exceeding 14,000, officially becoming the industry's top player; Wanchen Group, through mergers and acquisitions of brands such as Haoxianglai, Laiyoupin, Yadiyadi, and Luxiaochuan, formed strong market competitiveness and became an important challenger in the industry; On October 28, Three Squirrels issued an announcement that the company would acquire the control rights or related business and assets of Hunan Ai Snacks Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Ai Snacks") through its wholly-owned subsidiary Anhui Yijianshi Venture Capital Co., Ltd. for no more than 200 million yuan. This move also means that the snack chain track has officially entered the stage of three kingdoms. With the entry of brand manufacturers such as Laiyifen, industry competition has intensified, and opportunities for new entrants may become fewer. From another dimension, when industry practitioners shift their focus from involution competition to the smallest business units such as product structure, single-store models, distribution warehousing, and community consumption, it may also mean that the industry is beginning to enter a relatively benign and healthy development stage.
Instant Retail In 2024, the instant retail market continued to grow at a high speed, becoming one of the fastest-growing segments in the e-commerce industry. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and related industries show that from January to August this year, the scale of domestic instant retail grew by 26.2%, much higher than the 3.4% growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and the 8.9% growth of online retail sales. As one of the core players in instant retail, Meituan's lightning warehouse count exceeded 30,000 in 2024, covering categories such as mother and baby toys, daily necessities and clothing, beauty and personal care, and food and beverages. By 2027, the number of lightning warehouses is expected to exceed 100,000, with a market size possibly reaching 200 billion yuan. In addition to Meituan, retail giants such as Sam's Club, JD.com, and Hema have also vigorously deployed front warehouses. Miniso, Lotus, and Watsons have entered instant retail by leveraging Meituan's lightning warehouses. For FMCG brands and distributors operating in categories such as mother and baby toys, daily necessities and clothing, beauty and personal care, and food and beverages, if business growth is sluggish and new increments cannot be obtained, actively embracing instant retail and leveraging lightning warehouses may be a good choice.
Platform "Wall Removal" and Interconnectivity On September 5, Taotian Group issued an announcement, clearly stating that after September 12, it would gradually open WeChat Pay to all Taobao and Tmall merchants—this indicates that the "wall removal" among internet giants, which began in September 2021, has finally reached the node of payment ecosystem opening, and "WeChat entering Taobao" will be substantively implemented. The following month, on the 16th, JD Logistics' official WeChat account stated that JD Logistics had reached cooperation with Taotian Group, and JD Logistics would fully integrate into the Taobao and Tmall platforms, allowing platform merchants to choose JD Logistics as a service provider. Recently, Tencent Video Accounts has also begun to try to attach Taobao links and complete shopping within WeChat... Especially during the Double 11 period, these major news not only mean that the "wall removal" between internet platforms has achieved substantive results, but also inject a shot in the arm for brand manufacturers, who no longer need to switch between different platform rules, increasing operational costs, and providing consumers with more choices and convenience.
Disenchantment with Top Influencers: Building Personal IP for Enterprises Becomes a Trend In 2024, the explosion of Xiaomi's Lei Jun made countless enterprises see the brand value and commercial value behind entrepreneur IP. Especially when top influencers like San Zhi Yang and Northeast Sister Yu successively fell from grace and their personas collapsed, many brands finally realized that instead of relying on top influencers for low-price sales and brand endorsement, it is better to firmly grasp the product strength, brand strength, operational strength, and marketing strength in their own hands. As a result, we see that brand "store livestreaming" has become a marketing routine for many consumer goods companies, with various bigwigs appearing on camera and moving their livestream rooms to production workshops, factory warehouses, etc., to communicate and interact with consumers more closely, narrowing the distance between brands and consumers, and attracting consumers through precision marketing. It is foreseeable that in 2025 and even longer in the future, it will become more common for brand executives and distributor bosses to personally engage in livestreaming and build personal IP.
Food Safety As a fundamental industry for people's livelihood, food safety is paramount. However, in 2024, food safety incidents still occurred frequently. From the starch sausage incident and the use of pork neck meat in Meicai Kou Rou exposed by 315, to the oil tanker mixing edible oil incident in July, food safety issues have been repeatedly prohibited. This also triggered a trust crisis in the food industry, especially for pre-made dishes. According to data from iiMedia Research, regarding pre-made dishes, 68.55% of consumers worry about illegal additives, 61.29% worry about poor quality or spoiled ingredients, and 58.06% are concerned about food hygiene issues. This also reflects the reality that under extreme involution, enterprises, in pursuit of profits, do not hesitate to violate laws and regulations, using inferior raw materials, adding harmful substances, and making false claims. This also explains from another dimension why Pangdonglai's products are not cheap, but consumers still spare no effort, even taking high-speed trains, to shop at Pangdonglai. As one consumer said, "Pangdonglai's things are not expensive, because elsewhere, no matter how much you spend, you might still buy fakes!"
Final Thoughts With increasing uncertainty in the internal and external environment, the phrase "This year is the worst year we've experienced, but it may be the best year in the next decade" is being quoted repeatedly by many. But within crisis lies opportunity. Grasp the macro trends, act accordingly, and in the micro, exert subjective initiative and actively seek change, so as to remain invincible in future corporate competition. As Canadian singer Leonard Cohen sang in "Anthem": "There is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in."
【New Order · Symbiosis】 The 10th China FMCG Innovation Conference Time: March 17-19, 2025 Location: Chengdu, China