---
title: "Young People Won't Take Over, Baijiu's 'Old Story' No Longer Works"
description: "A recent news item about the decline in personal housing loans at major banks signals a deeper issue: assets are being de-financialized. This applies to baijiu as well, which has long been more than a consumer product, serving as a social, gift, and quasi-financial asset. The real problem is that the financial attributes of baijiu are receding, and the old narrative that someone will always take over is collapsing, as younger generations no longer buy into the old stories."
author: "赵波"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2026-04-29"
categories: "Consumer & Categories"
language: "en"
canonical: "https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/young-people-won-t-take-over-baijiu-s-old-story-no-longer-works-48e88013/"
markdown: "https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/young-people-won-t-take-over-baijiu-s-old-story-no-longer-works-48e88013.md"
original_source: "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/myaofKM-g-K5G_0bZ9EX0Q"
translation: "https://xinjignxiao.com/zh/articles/%E5%B9%B4%E8%BD%BB%E4%BA%BA%E4%B8%8D%E6%8E%A5%E7%9B%98-%E7%99%BD%E9%85%92%E7%9A%84-%E8%80%81%E6%95%85%E4%BA%8B-%E8%AE%B2%E4%B8%8D%E5%8A%A8%E4%BA%86-48e88013.md"
attribution: "New Distribution — https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/young-people-won-t-take-over-baijiu-s-old-story-no-longer-works-48e88013/"
citation: "赵波. “Young People Won't Take Over, Baijiu's 'Old Story' No Longer Works.” New Distribution, 2026-04-29. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/young-people-won-t-take-over-baijiu-s-old-story-no-longer-works-48e88013/"
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---

# Young People Won't Take Over, Baijiu's 'Old Story' No Longer Works

> A recent news item about the decline in personal housing loans at major banks signals a deeper issue: assets are being de-financialized. This applies to baijiu as well, which has long been more than a consumer product, serving as a social, gift, and quasi-financial asset. The real problem is that the financial attributes of baijiu are receding, and the old narrative that someone will always take over is collapsing, as younger generations no longer buy into the old stories.

Recently, a piece of news appeared in my social feed.
It roughly said that the personal housing loan balance of the six major banks has decreased by nearly 1.9 trillion yuan in three years. On the surface, this is the real estate market adjusting. Looking deeper, this is not simply a sales issue or a confidence issue, but a more fundamental issue: **assets are being de-financialized.**
The same applies to housing and baijiu.
In the past, many people understood baijiu from a consumer goods perspective, thinking it was just about sales volume, channels, inventory, price bands, and attracting younger consumers. That view is not wrong, but looking only at that level cannot explain the real predicament of the baijiu industry today.
Because high-end baijiu has never been just a consumer product; it has long played four roles simultaneously:
A beverage, a social product, a gift, and a quasi-financial asset.
The problem lies here.
In the past, when baijiu was at its peak, what supported prices was never just how much was consumed, but how large the circulation was, how large the collection market was, how large the hoarding market was, how large the gift market was, how large the face-saving market was, and how large the investment market was.
For many baijiu products, drinking is just the surface; what truly holds up the price is the underlying expectation, liquidity, and layer upon layer of resale logic.
In plain terms, many people buy baijiu not to drink, but to give as gifts, to save face, to wait for appreciation, and to enter a system of relationships and value exchange.
This is essentially the same as real estate in the past.
Houses are certainly for living, but what truly pushed housing prices up was never just the living value. Baijiu is certainly for drinking, but what truly pushed baijiu prices up was never just the taste value. In an era of rapid growth, both were endowed with financial expectations far beyond their use value.
So today's baijiu problem is very similar to some real estate problems. It's not that the product suddenly lost its function, but that the financial attributes of the asset are receding.
Once the tide goes out, what collapses first is not craftsmanship, not history, not stories, but liquidity, expectations, and the belief that someone will always take over.
This is why many people are still discussing baijiu inventory, price inversion, and channel pressure, but they never get to the root.
The root is only one sentence: the financial attributes of baijiu are over.
In other words, young people are no longer taking over the stories of the old generation.
The most dangerous thing for baijiu is not that it can't sell
But that the old value system can no longer hold
Many people, when talking about baijiu, like to say one thing: return to the essence of consumption.
This statement is correct, but not precise enough.
Because baijiu is not mineral water, not instant noodles, not a simple thirst-quenching or hunger-satisfying FMCG. Its real problem is not returning to functional consumption, but to fall back from the over-inflated financial consumption of the past to real consumption, real culture, and real identity.
In the past, high-end baijiu had a very mature narrative system: successful people drink this, people with status give this as gifts, high-end gatherings must have this, the more expensive it is, the more face it brings, the more scarce it is, the more valuable it is, the older it is, the more valuable it becomes.
This entire narrative was valid in China over the past few decades. Because the core logic of that generation was indeed economic rise, interpersonal relationships, social face, business resources, and identity confirmation.
That was an era of rapid expansion.
People moved up, assets moved up, prices moved up, expectations moved up. So baijiu was not just a drink, but became part of the social structure, a currency in a society of power, relationships, and face.
But the problem is that today's consumers have changed.
It's not that distilleries haven't tried, nor that channels aren't competitive enough, but that consumers' value coordinates have switched to a different system.
Today, more and more new consumers no longer naturally believe that expensive means high-class, no longer naturally believe that socializing is necessary, no longer naturally believe that drinking baijiu means maturity, and no longer believe that all identity confirmation must be done at the dinner table.
The keywords of this generation have become another set: authenticity, expression, emotion, aesthetics, light burden, boundaries, self-definition, and cultural identity.
So the deepest trouble in the baijiu industry today is not that young people don't drink, but that young people no longer buy the old reasons for drinking.
This is the real problem.
It's not that no one drinks, but that the old reasons for drinking are becoming invalid.
What baijiu truly loses is not sales volume, but the right to explain
Consumer goods competition often goes through several stages.
First is category, solving what to sell; then brand, solving why buy you; then scenario, solving when to buy and why buy now.
Finally, it's narrative, solving what buying it means.
Baijiu actually entered the narrative stage very early and very deeply. It has long been not just a product, but a social symbol.
The problem is precisely here. Because once a narrative is established, it can push prices very high. But once the narrative ages, it collapses very quickly.
In the past, the narrative of baijiu was built on several premises: Chinese society continued to rise, business socializing was frequent, gift culture was strong and stable, elite identity needed symbols to carry, and people defaulted to the idea that face could be expressed through price.
These premises were all valid in the past, so baijiu ran fast.
But today, as society enters another stage, these premises are beginning to loosen.
The economy is moving from high-speed growth to maturity, assets are moving from one-way appreciation to repeated fluctuations, consumers are moving from collective imitation to individual expression, and the relationship society is being rewritten bit by bit by new occupational structures, life structures, and media structures.
So you will find that baijiu is still talking about success studies, but many people are beginning to question the definition of success. Baijiu is still talking about identity symbols, but more and more people are becoming wary of this external symbol kidnapping. Baijiu is still talking about high-end banquets, but the social structure of young people is no longer that dinner table logic.
This means one thing: the problem of baijiu is no longer a product problem, but a problem of the right to explain.
In the past, it could explain status, explain decency, explain success, explain Chinese-style relationships.
Today, these explanatory powers are failing.
Once a product loses the right to explain, it begins to lose the right to premium pricing. Once an industry loses the right to narrate, it begins to lose the right to valuation.
For example, BBA in the automotive industry and big luxury brands are all facing the problem of losing the right to explain their narratives.
The problem with real estate is the de-financialization of housing
The problem with baijiu is the de-financialization of drinking
Many people might think that comparing baijiu to real estate is too heavy.
Actually, it's not heavy at all.
The problem with real estate in the past was not the lack of housing demand, but that housing was over-financialized. Today, the continuous decline in personal housing loan balances not only shows weak demand for buying houses, but also shows that the confidence and expectations of the whole society regarding housing as a wealth carrier have undergone profound changes.
Similarly, the problem with baijiu in the past was not the lack of consumption, but that baijiu was over-financialized.
When a bottle of baijiu is bought, whether it is for drinking, for storing, for giving, for price anchoring, for collection, or for waiting for the next market cycle, the underlying logic is completely different.
If the price of a baijiu product relies mainly on financial expectations for a long time, rather than on real consumers continuously opening, drinking, repurchasing, and identifying with it, then its valuation will eventually hit a ceiling.
Because financial logic itself is cyclical.
If there are highs, there must be lows; if there are winners, there must be those who take over; if there is a bubble, there must be a day when the bubble is squeezed.
This is not something that can be completely avoided by better management; it is the law of financial attributes themselves.
So what baijiu faces today is not short-term inventory reduction, but deeper de-financialization.
This process will not end with a few positive news items, nor will it be reversed by channel price controls. Because what is truly changing is not a single point, but the entire value support logic.
In the future, baijiu competition will no longer be about who controls supply better
But who can rebuild a new value narrative
Many liquor companies are still stuck in the inertia of the old era.
They stare at stock prices, wholesale prices, distributors, payment collections, supply control rhythms, and market sentiment. It can't be said that these are unimportant, but if you only focus on these, you are turning strategic issues into financial issues, and era issues into inventory issues.
The real question baijiu must answer next is not how to continue propping up prices, but: Why should the next generation of consumers continue to recognize this category? Why should new consumer groups still be willing to use it as an expression of identity? Why should global consumers understand the cultural value of Chinese baijiu? Why should it not just be a tool on the table of the old generation, but become a new cultural symbol?
This is the key.
In the future, baijiu will not be won by whoever can tell the old stories best. Nor by whoever can show off old credentials best. Nor by whoever can create tension with scarcity and supply control best.
What truly determines the future is who can move Chinese baijiu from the relationship narrative of old China to the cultural narrative of new China and even the world.
To put it more bluntly: in the past, baijiu sold decency in a power society; in the future, baijiu must sell identity in the new consumption era.
If you still stay in the old logic, there will only be one result. Old money drinks, old scenes support, old narratives tell, and young people pass by.
In the end, the market may still seem to exist, but the imagination is gone.
Why Pop Mart
Can Teach Baijiu and All FMCG Industries a Lesson
Many people look at Pop Mart and only see stock price fluctuations, blind boxes, and speculation. That's a shallow view.
What Pop Mart is truly good at is not creating bubbles, but knowing that it can't live on bubbles alone. What it truly captures is users, IP, emotion, content, collection fun, cultural diffusion, and global expression.
It's not simply selling plastic, but emotion, companionship, aesthetics, social communication, and self-expression, turning consumer goods into cultural symbols.
So even if the capital market fluctuates, there is still real consumption and real identity underneath to support it.
The biggest reminder for FMCG is: in the future, consumer goods that can truly transcend cycles are not those best at creating price illusions, but those best at creating cultural identity.
The same goes for baijiu.
If Chinese liquor companies today are still staring at stock prices and self-congratulating domestically, still using the old success-study aesthetics to understand consumption upgrades, and still pinning all hopes on supply control and capital sentiment, rather than reconstructing the new value narrative of Chinese baijiu among new consumer groups and global pop culture, then no one can save them.
Not because baijiu has no culture.
On the contrary, it's because baijiu has culture, but this culture today has not been re-translated, re-narrated, or re-connected to new consumer language.
The old explanatory system is increasingly like jargon. Those who understand are getting older, and those who don't understand are getting more numerous.
This is the real danger for baijiu.
All consumer goods
Ultimately compete not on function, but on desire and meaning
Today, many industries are experiencing the same thing.
Paper products, beer, snacks, beverages, and even more consumer goods are moving from functional competition to meaning competition.
A person's true daily needs are just 2000 calories, that much water, and that much basic need. The rest is not about survival, but all about desire, emotion, identity, imagination, self-comfort, lifestyle, and some kind of meaning confirmation.
No one buys king crab today because they are hungry. Nor are there many people who must drink Moutai because they crave alcohol.
What people buy is never just the product, but the narrative meaning behind it.
So the core battle for future consumer goods is not who is more competitive in function, but who can enter the user's meaning system.
Who can explain a lifestyle; who can carry an identity; who can provide an emotion; who can allow consumers to complete a self-expression through purchase.
This is the true endgame of consumer goods competition today.
Baijiu is no exception.
If it cannot upgrade from the old face logic to a new cultural logic, emotional logic, and identity logic, it can only continue to be trapped in old scenes and slowly age.
The biggest task for baijiu next
Return to the essence of consumption and reconstruct value narrative.
This is not a slogan; this is the real lifeline for the entire industry.
Returning to the essence of consumption does not mean making baijiu retreat to only comparing taste, craftsmanship, and price. That's too shallow.
The real return is to return to real customers, real opening rates, real repurchase rates, real scenarios, real cultural identity, and real capture of user minds.
Reconstructing the value narrative is not about shooting a few new ads, finding a few celebrities, doing a few events, or telling a few stories about craftsmanship and history, but about reconstructing the meaningful relationship between baijiu and contemporary consumers.
The questions to answer are: Why do consumers still need you today? Why are they willing to identify with you? Why are they willing to make you part of their lives? Why are they willing to regard Chinese baijiu as a cultural expression worth participating in?
In the end, the long-term value of all consumer goods comes not from capital, but from customers.
A company can continue to operate not because of high market value or good stock prices, but because it continuously acquires customers, continuously creates identity, continuously establishes repurchase, and continuously holds the right to explain.
Stock price is just a result, not the root; finance is just an amplifier, not the engine.
Customers are the root, identity is the root, narrative is the root.
Whoever loses the root, no matter how beautiful the books look, is just temporarily not collapsed.
## **In Conclusion**
Finally, let me end with a joke: **The old generation's baijiu, the middle generation's stocks, the young generation's emotions, and the gods' suffering.**
The old generation is still talking about the world at the dinner table.
The middle generation is still looking for security on the K-line.
The young generation is no longer playing along with you; they've turned to buy their own emotional value.
As for the gods who are still trying hard to sell baijiu, they are still struggling to hold on, waiting, because all bubbles must eventually be paid for, and all excitement must eventually fall back to the mundane world.
In the end, the times have changed. It's just that some people haven't woken up from their drunkenness.


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## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: 赵波
- Published: 2026-04-29
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/young-people-won-t-take-over-baijiu-s-old-story-no-longer-works-48e88013/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/myaofKM-g-K5G_0bZ9EX0Q

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