---
title: "Who Moved the Cheese of Short-Shelf-Life Baking? — A 10,000-Word Research Report on China's Short-Shelf-Life Baking Industry"
description: "Capital has been flowing into China's short-shelf-life baking brands, with investments from Everbright Holdings, Qinglan Fund, Yunji, and Tiantu Capital. Traditional Chinese pastry brands are also reinventing themselves through cross-industry collaborations and new media channels. This report analyzes the industry's trends, the development paths of foreign and domestic giants, and explores new entrepreneurial opportunities in the sector."
author: "三万资本吕东"
publisher: "New Distribution"
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published: "2020-07-21"
language: "en"
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# Who Moved the Cheese of Short-Shelf-Life Baking? — A 10,000-Word Research Report on China's Short-Shelf-Life Baking Industry

> Capital has been flowing into China's short-shelf-life baking brands, with investments from Everbright Holdings, Qinglan Fund, Yunji, and Tiantu Capital. Traditional Chinese pastry brands are also reinventing themselves through cross-industry collaborations and new media channels. This report analyzes the industry's trends, the development paths of foreign and domestic giants, and explores new entrepreneurial opportunities in the sector.

**Click to read the original text for details**
**Everbright Holdings invested in Xiaobai Xinli Ruan, Qinglan Fund invested in Xuān Mā Egg Yolk Pastry, Yunji invested in Liú Máng Yī Kè, Tiantu Capital invested in Bao Shifu... In recent years, these internet-famous short-shelf-life baking brands have frequently attracted capital. Meanwhile, Wufangzhai partnered with Marvel and Disney, Shen Dacheng partnered with Anchor, traditional Chinese pastries have been given a new internet-famous coat, and with the help of new traffic sources like Taobao Live, Douyin, and Bilibili, they have won back the fickle hearts of the younger generation.**
**History is always strikingly similar, just with a different coat. Who can become the next Yamazaki Bread? Dali Foods? Toly Bread? Lü Dong, an industry analyst at 30,000 Capital, will present an industry map of short-shelf-life baking, covering the industry, foreign large companies, and domestic mature companies, and finally explore new entrepreneurial opportunities in domestic short-shelf-life baking, hoping to inspire you.**
**Main contents of this article:**
> **1. Overview of short-shelf-life baking industry trends**
>
> **2. Development paths of foreign large baking companies**
>
> **3. Development paths of domestic large baking companies**
>
> **4. New entrepreneurial opportunities in domestic short-shelf-life baking**
**-01-**
**Overview of short-shelf-life baking industry trends**
**1. The global baking industry is growing steadily; in China, it started late but is developing fast, with huge room for growth**
Baked goods are convenient foods made from basic ingredients such as flour, yeast, salt, sugar, and water, with appropriate amounts of oil, dairy, eggs, and additives, through a series of complex processes. They are mainly divided into four categories: bread, pastries, cakes, and mixed desserts.
The global baked food market has grown steadily. In Europe and America, baked goods have long been a staple for breakfast and main meals, making them the largest baking market globally. In the Asia-Pacific region, the baking industry has a relatively shorter history, and due to different living habits and dietary patterns, baked goods are not yet consumed as main meals.
In recent years, consumer awareness of baked goods has been rising. **The Chinese baking market has grown rapidly and is now the world's second-largest market after the United States.** However, per capita consumption of baked goods in China still lags far behind countries like the UK, US, and Japan, indicating vast room for industry growth.
**2. The baking industry's market size is expected to reach 346.9 billion yuan by 2023**
In China, baking products are rich in variety, mainly divided into four categories: bread, cakes, mixed desserts, and pastries. The overall baked food market is growing steadily. According to Euromonitor, the market size in 2020 is expected to reach 256.7 billion yuan, with a CAGR of about 10.9%.
By segment, industry growth is mainly driven by the growth of pastries, bread, and cakes.
**3. Baked pastries have become the first snack category with large existing volume, fast growth, and low market concentration**
In the trillion-yuan snack market, baked goods have become the largest category, but the industry concentration is low, with CR5 only 20%. Toly and Dali, the two baking giants, each have annual sales exceeding 3 billion yuan, together accounting for only 8% of the industry.
**4. Local brands have captured the majority of market share**
Since the 1980s, baked pastries have gradually emerged in the domestic market as supplementary foods. Foreign brands entered strongly with brand and capital advantages and quickly opened up the Chinese market:
In 1995, Belgium's Artal Group invested in a factory in Shanghai to produce and sell Mankattan brand bread;
In 1997, Korean baking snack leader Orion established its first factory in China for production and sales;
In 2003, Singaporean baking brand BreadTalk opened its first store in China;
In 2004, Japanese baking leader Yamazaki Baking set up a Shanghai branch;
In 2007, international baking snack leader Grupo Bimbo established a subsidiary in Beijing, beginning its layout in China.
The entry of foreign brands awakened the domestic baking market, and a number of domestic manufacturers and brands rose rapidly, leveraging localization advantages to become the dominant force. According to Euromonitor data, in 2018, the revenue of Mankattan, Orion, BreadTalk, Yamazaki, and Bimbo in China was approximately 0.8 billion, 2 billion, 1.2 billion, 0.12 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan, respectively. In contrast, local brands **Toly Bread and Dali Foods had baking revenues of 4.8 billion and 6.25 billion yuan in 2018, far exceeding foreign brands in market share.**
## 5. Short-shelf-life baking has become a hot track in the baking field, with major companies entering the market
According to product shelf life, baked goods can be divided into short, medium, and long shelf life. Short-shelf-life pastries better align with the health-oriented consumption upgrade trend. Currently, many baking brands with high Tmall sales have launched short-shelf-life baked goods.
# **-02-**
# **Lessons from the development paths of foreign large baking companies**
Japan, with a similar dietary structure to China, is the most mature baking market in the Asia-Pacific region. The development trajectory of Japan's bread market offers significant reference value for China's rapidly growing baking industry.
Japan's baking industry has gone through an early development period (mid-16th century to 1950s), a golden period (1960s-1980s), and a stable period (1980s to present). Today, Japan has become an important bread production base globally.
In 2019, the CR5 of Japan's baking industry reached 43.0%, with the top three companies being Yamazaki, Shikishima, and Fuji Bread. All three focus on bread, with products mainly consisting of toast and sweet bread due to Japanese dietary habits. Their business models are also similar, **adopting a combination of wholesale and retail, with a larger share of "central factory + wholesale" and a relatively small amount of in-store baking.**
## 1. Analysis of Yamazaki Bread's core competitiveness
**1) Deep channel cultivation + central factory expansion layout**
From the 1950s to the 1980s, Yamazaki developed both products and channels simultaneously. Numerous central factories ensured capacity expansion, supporting product variety and high gross margins. At the channel level, it completed two models: central factory + wholesale and central factory + direct-operated stores, basically achieving nationwide coverage.
After completing the national layout, Yamazaki shifted its focus to brand and channel building. As of 2018, Yamazaki had built 25 central factories in Japan, laid out 110,000 sales terminals, ensured the development and production of 1,000+ new products annually, and gradually increased advertising expenditure to strengthen brand building.
**2) Self-built logistics system, pioneering new logistics models**
Behind the hybrid model of "central factory + wholesale + direct-operated stores" is Yamazaki's strong logistics system. Yamazaki has a mature logistics network, with its self-distribution system divided into two parts, handled by two wholly-owned subsidiaries, and another independent subsidiary responsible for system management and operations. Yamazaki's logistics trucks have constant temperature and refrigeration functions at -20°C, ensuring that various finished and semi-finished products can be delivered safely, cleanly, and freshly to various sales terminals.
Additionally, leveraging its logistics advantages, Yamazaki pioneered a new logistics model called the "Shokuhin Kyohai System" (Food Joint Distribution System). Taiyo Logistics has established 18 joint distribution centers across Japan, providing logistics and distribution services to food suppliers other than Yamazaki, and currently serves over 100 clients.
# -03-
# Discussion on the development history of domestic large baking companies
Domestic large baking companies can be divided into four categories based on business model:
**1) Central factory + channels:** Toly is gradually consolidating its leading position in the domestic short-shelf-life baking field, based in the Northeast and radiating nationwide, with a development path similar to Japan's Yamazaki.
**2) Chain stores: BreadTalk**
An early industry leader, but due to changes in cost structure, increased store costs, and lower efficiency per square meter and per person, its operations have been poor.
**3) Retailization of restaurant brands: Guangzhou Restaurant**
A pioneer in retailizing restaurant brands, with full-channel efforts in both B2B and B2C.
**4) Local specialties and traditional Chinese pastries: Wufangzhai**
A representative of the new national trend, with rapid development in e-commerce channels.
**1. Toly Bread**
**Through the "central factory + channels" business model, it has become the leader in domestic short-shelf-life pastries.**
Toly Bread was founded in Shenyang in 1997 by Wu Zhigang and Wu Xuequn, listed in 2015, and now has a market value of over 30 billion yuan.
Under the "central factory + wholesale" model, Toly Bread achieved revenue of 5.644 billion yuan in 2019, up 16.77% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 683 million yuan, up 6.42% year-on-year. It has established over 240,000 retail terminals nationwide and stable cooperation with many large supermarkets.
Core products are bread, mooncakes, and zongzi, with bread as the core revenue product.
**1) Steady revenue growth, with direct sales and distribution working together**
In terms of production and sales, as of the end of 2019, the company's inventory of bread and pastries was 468,800 kg, an increase of 162,500 kg year-on-year, with no inventory of mooncakes and zongzi, indicating that production capacity was basically utilized.
In terms of sales methods, the company mainly sells through direct sales and distribution:
  * For large chain supermarkets (KA customers) and small and medium supermarkets and convenience store terminals in central cities, the company directly signs agreements to sell products.
  * For convenience stores, county and township stores, and small shops in external markets, the company distributes through distributors.
In terms of revenue share, the company's main products are sold through direct channels, with direct sales accounting for 63.68% of revenue.
### 2) Based in the Northeast, expanding nationwide
In terms of market distribution, the company's sales areas are mainly concentrated in the Northeast (40%), East China (20%), and North China (18%), with these three regions accounting for 78% of total revenue. There is still significant room for growth in the Southwest, Northwest, South China, and Central China regions.
In terms of profitability by region, the Northeast remains the main contributor to revenue and gross profit. Although the Southwest and Northwest have lower revenue shares, their gross margins are leading. Central China has the smallest market share and is currently loss-making as a newly developed market.
### 3) High expenses during expansion, but will be gradually amortized as regional layout improves
Currently, Toly is still in the regional market expansion phase and the early stage of becoming a leader, characterized by high revenue and high expenses. Toly's expense ratio has been rising to 23%, with product logistics and distribution costs accounting for up to 60%. The main reason is regional market development and cultivation, plus increasing daily distribution ratio, leading to rapid growth in distribution and transportation costs.
As the capacity layout gradually improves and a nationwide offline channel network is established, especially with the completion of new factories in Wuhan, Shandong, and Jiangsu, the high upfront distribution service costs will be gradually amortized, and distribution costs will gradually decrease.
The production cost of short- and medium-shelf-life products is not much different from long-shelf-life products; the main differences lie in the logistics costs of rapid turnover and product loss costs. Under the "central factory + wholesale" model, short-shelf-life baking products place extremely high demands on the supply chain. Therefore, Toly's agile production system and increasingly complete supply chain system are its core moat against fierce competition.
**2. BreadTalk and Christine**
**Due to increased chain store costs and lower efficiency per square meter and per person, operations have been poor.**
In the short-shelf-life baking field, the chain bakery model offers a better consumer experience, but its efficiency per square meter and ROE are relatively low. Taking BreadTalk and Christine as examples:
Christine's revenue has been declining since its peak in 2012, with 2018 revenue only 665 million yuan, and store count dropping from 1,052 to 586. BreadTalk's baking product revenue also peaked in 2015 and has been declining since, with only 863 stores by the end of 2018. In 2020, BreadTalk was officially delisted from the Singapore Exchange.
According to Danjie Chuangye's analysis of BreadTalk's Beijing Jinyuan Yansha MALL store, as one of BreadTalk's best-performing stores domestically, the net profit margin for a 100m2 store is only 7%-10%, before deducting headquarters management cost allocation.
## **3. Guangzhou Restaurant**
## **A pioneer in retailizing restaurant brands.**
In addition to the Western-style pastries mentioned above, the prevalence of national trend culture in recent years has brought new vitality to traditional Chinese pastries, with Guangzhou Restaurant and Wufangzhai being among the leaders.
The concept of retailizing restaurant brands has been popular during the pandemic. As a leading brand in Cantonese-style mooncakes, Guangzhou Restaurant is considered a pioneer in domestic restaurant retailization.
Guangzhou Restaurant was founded in 1935, with main businesses including food manufacturing and catering services. It owns well-known brands such as Likoufu mooncakes, Qiu Zhi Feng cured meat products, Guangzhou Restaurant, and Tianjipin Chinese restaurant. It has been awarded "China's Top Ten Catering Brand Enterprises" and "China Time-honored Brand" by the Ministry of Commerce. It was listed on the A-share market in 2016.
In 2019, Guangzhou Restaurant's annual revenue reached 3.028 billion yuan, up 19.38% year-on-year. An analysis of its 2019 cost structure reveals that costs grew faster than revenue, and administrative expenses increased significantly, resulting in almost no growth in net profit for the year.
### 1) Mooncakes are the highest gross margin product, accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue
Mooncake series products are currently the largest revenue item, with cumulative revenue of 1.192 billion yuan in 2019, accounting for 39.83% of total revenue. Additionally, the gross margin of mooncake series products declined slightly, mainly due to persistently high raw material costs.
### 2) Full-category layout of catering + Chinese pastries, with full-channel efforts in B2B and B2C
Guangzhou Restaurant's catering business operates through direct-operated stores, franchise stores, and other offline formats, mainly selling Mid-Autumn mooncakes, frozen dim sum, and gifts. In terms of sales channels, there are five main channels:
  * Offline restaurant retail;
  * Brand store retail;
  * Supermarket and trader channels;
  * OEM channels for hotels, etc.;
  * E-commerce channels.
In recent years, e-commerce has become a key channel for Guangzhou Restaurant. It has opened self-operated e-commerce, Taobao, Tmall, JD flagship stores, Vipshop, Yihaodian, Suning, and Amazon.
With the rapid development of e-commerce, Guangzhou Restaurant has leveraged online channels to achieve cross-regional sales. During the pandemic, it vigorously promoted takeout and e-commerce, selling differentiated products such as pot dishes, frozen dishes, and set meals. The company's Q1 2020 report shows that revenue outside Guangdong Province increased by 47.35% year-on-year, mainly from online sales.
In a recent live-streaming festival, Guangzhou Restaurant achieved impressive results. From June 6 to 8, traffic to its Tmall flagship store increased by over 60%, and the highest number of orders in a single live-streaming session exceeded 20,000.
## 4. Wufangzhai
## The new national trend brings new opportunities for traditional Chinese pastries.
Wufangzhai, founded in 1921 in Jiaxing, Zhejiang, currently has two main business segments: food manufacturing and catering services. In food manufacturing, Wufangzhai has production bases in Jiaxing and Chengdu, mainly producing zongzi, mooncakes, pastries, eggs, and braised products. In catering services, its restaurants mainly provide Chinese fast food.
In 2003, Wufangzhai entered the fast-food chain industry with breakfast, quickly expanding in the Jiangnan area, and gradually commercialized some fast-food items into pre-packaged foods. After starting e-commerce in 2009, it developed rapidly.
### Since 2018, it has pioneered "omni-channel new retail" in the industry, with frequent innovative marketing moves, helping Wufangzhai zongzi successfully go viral and rejuvenating the century-old brand.
### 1) Vigorously experimenting with innovative marketing, strong IP co-branding, and partnering with classic old brands to tap into consumers' emotions and memories
**Wufangzhai x Disney:** Wufangzhai began cooperating with Disney in 2016, and in 2018 launched a Mickey 90th Anniversary Time Train zongzi gift box. On the launch day, Wufangzhai's e-commerce sales exceeded 33.67 million yuan.
**Wufangzhai x Marvel:** On May 17, 2019, Wufangzhai launched 3,000 Marvel co-branded zongzi on its 517 member day, attracting significant traffic to its self-operated online mall.
### 2) Strong co-branding between new and old domestic food brands, achieving a win-win for both brands
During the 2020 Dragon Boat Festival, Wufangzhai partnered with Lamian Shuo to launch a cross-industry co-branded gift box, and with Zhong Xue Gao to launch a zongzi-flavored ice cream. The 99-year-old Wufangzhai's series of trendsetting moves have captured the minds of more young consumers.
Comparing the two time-honored brands, Guangzhou Restaurant and Wufangzhai, their commonalities are as follows:
  * **Cultural confidence, strongly linking the brand with cultural roots;**
  * **Channel innovation, vigorously expanding e-commerce and new retail channels;**
  * **Marketing innovation, embracing new traffic sources like live streaming, Bilibili, and Douyin.**
# **-04-**
# **Exploration of innovative models and market opportunities in the domestic baking industry**
Innovative models in the domestic baking industry can be divided into the following four categories:
  * New retail channel-driven: Xiaobai Xinli Ruan
  * Immersive offline experience space of baking + beverages: Heytea, Nayuki
  * Commercialization of local specialties: Xuan Ma
  * Product matrix based on specific taste enthusiasts: Liú Máng Yī Kè
## 1. Internet-famous brand relying on new channels for success—Xiaobai Xinli Ruan
"Xiaobai Xinli Ruan" is under Fujian Mulanka Food Co., Ltd., founded in 2016. The company's main business is the production and sale of pre-packaged short- and medium-shelf-life pastries. At the end of 2019, it received Series A funding from Everbright Holdings.
Xiaobai Xinli Ruan's revenue was 200 million yuan at the end of 2017, and over 300 million yuan for the full year of 2018, with a growth rate of 130%. By the end of 2018, it had 66 million-level distributors, and by the end of 2019, it covered over 60,000 retail terminals.
### 1) Product innovation
Xiaobai Xinli Ruan targeted the gap in filled pastries within the short-shelf-life pastry category, creating the hit product "Yogurt Little Pocket," followed by flavors like yellow peach, strawberry, and matcha. Leveraging internet-famous elements like "lactic acid bacteria," it targets college students and urban new white-collar workers, creating products that meet consumers' health and convenience needs.
**2) Channel innovation**
**Offline channels:** In addition to large supermarkets like Yonghui, Walmart, and Hema, it focuses on developing new channels such as convenience stores like Bianlifeng, 7-Eleven, and FamilyMart. Furthermore, to increase market density and seek incremental growth, Xiaobai Xinli Ruan has also expanded into fragmented emerging channels such as fruit stores, unmanned shelves, and vending machines.
**Online channels:** Xiaobai Xinli Ruan cooperates with Miss Fresh, Hema, etc., to directly reach target customers, and opened its Tmall self-operated flagship store in the second half of 2018.
### 3) Marketing innovation
Xiaobai Xinli Ruan uses the product-specific concept "Xinli Ruan" (soft in heart) as the core of its communication, closely integrating brand tone, communication themes, and product characteristics. It deploys the "Xinli Ruan" concept in new media, focusing on building and disseminating internet content systems to achieve high brand exposure across the web.
In terms of marketing channels, on one hand, it creates exclusive IP images and increases exposure through short videos and micro-films; on the other hand, it extensively exposes and plants seeds on social platforms like Xiaohongshu, Douyin, Bilibili, and Weibo, and also tries live-streaming with well-known anchors.
## 2. Immersive offline experience space of baking + beverages
New-style tea drinks are a "new species." Unlike the complex processes of traditional tea drinks or the single flavors of early instant teas, the new-style tea industry, mainly represented by Heytea and Nayuki, more closely aligns with the actual needs of young consumer groups, integrating product, marketing, and service to create a new consumption lifestyle experience scene that combines tea, baking, and social interaction.
New-style bread and tea shops represented by Heytea and Nayuki have driven the trend of "baking + beverages," expanding omni-channel coverage of dine-in, takeout, and delivery, effectively improving efficiency per person and per square meter.
### 1) Store image is also part of the product
New-style tea shops' constantly changing decoration styles are also part of the product, with high photo rates and high appearance rates on social media. Heytea's store space experience design maximizes attracting more consumers to visit, and a good in-store photo is the highest quality, lowest cost source of traffic.
**2) Co-branding marketing**
Heytea has normalized co-branding marketing, providing users with reasons to repurchase and props for sharing, gradually evolving from a tea brand to a representative of trendy culture.
### 3) Strong data middle platform
As of December 31, 2019, Heytea had opened 390 stores in 43 cities nationwide, adding 157 main stores and 63 Go stores. The Heytea Go mini-program gained 15.82 million new users in the year, bringing total mini-program users to 21.5 million.
Heytea has its own IT team of several hundred people. Its self-operated mini-program ordering significantly reduces operating costs, delivery expands the coverage radius of each store, and ordering in advance with in-store pickup improves store operational efficiency.
## 3. Commercialization of traditional pastries—Xuan Ma
Xuan Ma Food was founded in Nanning, Guangxi in 2016, with core products being Xuan Ma brand egg yolk pastries, durian pastries, and other baked goods. Sales in 2016 were approximately 60 million yuan, exceeding 100 million yuan in 2017. In 2018, sales of egg yolk pastries exceeded 60 million units, with annual revenue of about 200 million yuan.
### 1) Product and supply chain assurance
Xuan Ma adheres to a hit product strategy, with relatively concentrated SKUs. It mechanizes and standardizes traditional handmade pastries for batch production, with mechanized production efficiency 7.5 times that of manual labor, greatly improving supply chain efficiency.
In addition to its production capacity in Guangxi, Xuan Ma has also established a production base in Zhejiang, which is now officially in operation, enabling delivery to consumers in East China within 36 hours.
### 2) Channel evolution from private domain to public domain
Xuan Ma initially opened up the market through WeChat private domain traffic. Currently, it has nearly 10,000 agents at all levels nationwide, who can place orders directly through the company's Xuan Ma Mall, with the company shipping directly to end consumers.
Since 2018, it has been developing both online and offline channels simultaneously, expanding offline to retail channels such as fruit stores and snack shops, and online to platforms like Yunji, JD, Tmall, and Pinduoduo for self-operated e-commerce.
Additionally, Xuan Ma actively tries new traffic forms, using live-streaming with anchors and KOC reviews on social platforms to expand its voice.
## **4. Product matrix based on specific taste enthusiasts—Liú Máng Yī Kè**
Liú Máng Yī Kè was founded in Shenzhen, Guangdong in 2014. It is a brand company focused on the R&D, production, and sales of durian delicacies. Around durian, it has gradually developed hit baked goods such as durian mille crepe cake, durian boxes, durian bubbles, and pure milk hand-torn bread.
For six years, adhering to the mission of "Let the world fall in love with durian delicacies," it pursues high-quality products and user experience. Currently, its business covers over 200 cities nationwide, with expected revenue exceeding 200 million yuan in 2020. To date, it has accumulated over 1.2 million users across the internet and sold over 3 million orders.
### 1) Strong addictiveness of the durian category
When purchasing snack foods, consumers' top four core factors are product taste, product quality, habitual purchase, and product variety.
However, with the diversification of products and channels, consumer tastes are becoming increasingly picky. Addictive flavors like durian are more likely to gain consumer favor and form product stickiness compared to ordinary flavors.
China's durian mainly comes from Thailand and Malaysia. Among the varieties introduced from Thailand, Golden Pillow accounts for over 80%. From Malaysia, only Musang King (D197) and Sultan King (D24) have been introduced. Therefore, by variety, it is mainly a competition between Golden Pillow and Musang King, two geographically distinct products. However, there is no super brand in durian food that has deeply penetrated consumer minds. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China's fresh durian imports exceeded 600,000 tons in 2019.
Among durian consumers, 66.7% are female, mainly from first-tier or new first-tier cities, with urban white-collar workers and new mothers aged 25-34 accounting for over 39%; another segment is mothers or housewives aged 40-45, with strong purchasing power.
### 2) Serving durian enthusiasts, building a full-scenario product matrix
Based on scenarios such as breakfast, snacks, and festivals, Liú Máng Yī Kè mainly serves durian enthusiasts, developing multiple short-shelf-life pastries around durian, driving repeat purchases.
### 3) Embracing new traffic
Liú Máng Yī Kè started from private domain in 2014, began focusing on Tmall e-commerce in 2018, tested Taobao live-streaming in the second half of 2019, and started testing Douyin content placement in 2020. As an internet-famous product with high average order value, high gross margin, and topicality, it has achieved investment efficiency far above industry averages across all channels, maintaining the number one online position in durian pastries for a long time.
### 4) Promoting the growth of the durian category, becoming a great durian food brand
Around single fruit categories like coconut, banana, and pineapple, there are two unicorn companies, Vita Coco and Dole. But durian, which is more addictive, does not have a super company. Currently, Liú Máng Yī Kè, with its first-mover advantage, has developed hit products such as durian mille crepe cake, durian bubbles, and durian snow skin mooncakes. In the future, around durian+, it has the opportunity to become a unicorn in global durian food.
**-05-**
**Summary**
1. Short-shelf-life baked goods meet consumers' pursuit of healthy eating under consumption upgrades, with multiple strongly related scenarios such as breakfast, birthdays, holidays, and afternoon tea. **They will enjoy the dividend of rapid category growth for a long time.**
2. Due to changes in infrastructure such as channels, traffic, and logistics, whether it is Xiaobai Xinli Ruan based on convenience store channel growth, Heytea based on the composite experience of baking + beverages, Wufangzhai and Xuan Ma based on the revival of national trend Chinese pastries, or brands like Liú Máng Yī Kè based on strong user operation for specific tastes, **all are in the early stage of category development dividends after infrastructure improvement, and each approach has the opportunity to give birth to unicorn enterprises.**
3. The food five forces model of 30,000 Capital also applies to baking and pastry entrepreneurship. **A good category + a good name + supply chain barriers + product capability are the 1, while channels and traffic are the actions of adding 0.** Sometimes, traffic dividends can lead to explosive growth, but traffic will always change. Only by adhering to the essence of food entrepreneurship can one go the furthest. Whoever can go the furthest, the survivor wins, and they will eat the biggest piece of the short-shelf-life pastry cake.
Source: 30,000 Food Research Institute (ID: sanwanshipin)


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