---
title: "Which Type of Distributor Can Survive the Winter?"
description: "2022 may mark the beginning of winter for China's FMCG market. Distributors, as the most active and sensitive group, face a challenging period; only those who adapt—whether as agile hunters or meticulous farmers—can survive and even thrive."
author: "陈思廷"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2022-07-03"
language: "en"
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---

# Which Type of Distributor Can Survive the Winter?

> 2022 may mark the beginning of winter for China's FMCG market. Distributors, as the most active and sensitive group, face a challenging period; only those who adapt—whether as agile hunters or meticulous farmers—can survive and even thrive.

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**1**
**2022 may be the year winter begins for China's FMCG industry**
Since the reform and opening-up, we have become accustomed to decades of market growth and dazzling opportunities. Although rationality has always reminded us that winter will inevitably come, individual perception always lags behind until problems hit our own companies.
China's FMCG market has passed its era of great prosperity. Consumer enthusiasm seems to persist, but minimalism and low-desire consumption are gradually becoming the creed of some young people. Meanwhile, our population is barely increasing, the proportion of young people is declining, and urbanization, though still driving growth, is nearing its end.
FMCG is a typical population-driven economy. The total stomach capacity of consumers remains constant. Future growth may come from consumers eating better and more expensively, or from a zero-sum game where one brand's gain is another's loss.
Our economic foundation remains solid, and third- and fourth-tier markets can still provide considerable incremental growth. However, with heightened global uncertainty and the repeated COVID-19 pandemic over three years, it's likely that our FMCG market has entered winter.
△Image source: Internet
Distributors are the most active and sensitive group in the FMCG market, a natural trait stemming from their role as the intermediate hub in the industry chain.
Among the distributors who have long been in contact with New Distribution, about 20% have left the business for various reasons. The rest generally report that making money in 2022 is difficult. (Detailed data will be released in the "China FMCG Distributor Survival Survey Report" at the 7th China FMCG Channel Innovation Conference on July 20, 2022.)
We all know that winter doesn't arrive with a switch; there's no on/off button. But there is a solar term called "Start of Winter," marking the day from which it gets colder day by day. 2022 may be the year winter begins for China's FMCG industry.
Desolation is always the theme of winter. Except for a few plants like plum blossoms and pines that can withstand frost and snow, most living things fall silent in winter, waiting to be awakened by the spring breeze.
So, among the distributors still in the FMCG field today, who can survive this winter? How can they survive?
**2**
**In winter, which distributors can survive?**
In the millions of years of human existence, it's only in the last hundred years that we have basically escaped the threat of winter's cold to survival. Before that, even in the prosperous Tang Dynasty, there was the tragic scene of "wine and meat rotting behind vermilion gates, while frozen bodies lie on the road."
We cannot change the environment, so who can survive the winter? Based on the characteristics and capability preferences of distributors, I roughly divide them into two types: hunter-type and farmer-type.
**01** **Survival rules for hunter-type distributors**
Hunters have a strong sense of smell for opportunities and the ability to seize them, while farmers excel at meticulous cultivation of their own small plot. These two types of distributors have different survival rules in winter. Of course, a distributor who combines the strengths of both hunter and farmer will be the one who survives best, even growing against the trend.
Hunters are agile, keenly aware of prey scents and every sound in the jungle. Similarly, hunter-type distributors have wide information channels, many friends, and are highly sensitive to new business opportunities and models.
They can always spot the next possible change from market clues and find opportunities. Once they target an opportunity, they patiently stalk closer, then leap and strike with precision.
The shortcoming of hunter-type distributors often lies in refined company management and meticulous market cultivation. They are good at seizing opportunities to make money, but often spend it inexplicably.
For this type of distributor, it's best to undergo a slimming surgery this winter, keeping operating costs at the minimum normal configuration. If they don't slim down, they lose flexibility and agility, and even if they spot opportunities, they may lack the capacity to seize them.
These distributor bosses need to be more diligent than ever, participate more frequently in various exchanges, and pay attention to new brand, product, and model opportunities. Remember, in this winter, although conventional sales models are far less efficient, new business models that emerge can bring huge dividends if seized.
**02** **Survival rules for farmer-type distributors**
In fact, the vast majority of FMCG distributors rely on meticulous terminal cultivation to complete sales, making them typical farmer-type distributors.
Farmer-type distributors are good at team management and financial calculations. So, when winter comes, they must take management refinement and financial precision to the extreme.
First, take stock of the company's assets: What are the monthly fixed operating costs? What are the variable costs? How much room for optimization remains, and through what means can costs be reduced and efficiency improved?
Conduct detailed and in-depth analysis of financial statements: Which products are profitable, and which are actually not? Are there any brands that contribute neither profit nor influence? What are the warehouse and distribution costs? Could outsourcing to third parties or contracting to employees reduce costs?
Repeatedly review distribution and terminal customers: Which customers are profitable, and which are not? Why not, and how can they become profitable? Are there any customers with payment risks? And so on.
Calculate every penny carefully, cut every unnecessary expense, earn every dollar that should be earned, and unite the team to weather the storm. Through this winter's grind, push your internal team management, expense management, and operational management capabilities to your limits.
Through this winter, forge a core team that is resilient and unyielding—that is victory.
**3**
**The first rule of winter survival: you must go out**
**Whether hunter or farmer, the most critical point in winter is to go out.** Hunters and farmers who stay indoors during the harsh winter, unless they have endless savings at home, will ultimately freeze or starve to death.
What do you go out for? Hunters go out to hunt, farmers go out to gather. **Not every trip yields a harvest, but every satisfying harvest comes after going out.**
Therefore, in July, when the shadow of the pandemic temporarily lifts, New Distribution will hold the "7th China FMCG Channel Innovation Conference" in Chengdu. We welcome all FMCG distributors to go out, to attend this annual industry event, to look around, and to listen.
This conference, themed "Seize the Opportunity, Stabilize the Market," will run from July 20 to 22, lasting three days. Over a thousand marketing experts, brand executives, digital service companies, and distributor bosses will gather in Chengdu to discuss new concepts, models, opportunities, and strategies for seizing the "opportunity" and stabilizing the "market."
What's more noteworthy for distributor friends is that this conference will feature a full day on July 22 dedicated to distributor-focused agendas. The agenda is divided into two parts: **one is "Distributor Model Transformation," suitable for hunter-type distributors eager for change; the other is "Distributor Business Growth," more suitable for farmer-type distributors who focus on meticulous cultivation.**
Of course, we hope all attending distributors can evolve into "hunter" + "farmer" amphibious all-round distributors. If such evolution is achieved, this winter will no longer be cold but will become a paradise for distributor growth.
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