---
title: "Top 10 Predictions for New Consumption in 2019: The Rise of Discount Stores and the Era of Low-Desire Consumption"
description: "The author releases annual predictions for new consumption trends. For 2019, they foresee the rise of product-oriented brands, the growth of discount stores, the popularity of cash-flow consumer projects, and the emergence of niche brands, among other trends."
author: "龙猫1989"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2019-03-05"
language: "en"
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# Top 10 Predictions for New Consumption in 2019: The Rise of Discount Stores and the Era of Low-Desire Consumption

> The author releases annual predictions for new consumption trends. For 2019, they foresee the rise of product-oriented brands, the growth of discount stores, the popularity of cash-flow consumer projects, and the emergence of niche brands, among other trends.

Click to read the original text for details.
At the beginning of each year, I release my top 10 predictions and judgments in the field of new consumption. Last year, I published my latest predictions for 2018, and most of them have been fulfilled. Today, I will release my latest new consumption predictions for 2019 to share with readers.

**The Era of Productism Arrives, Quality Product Brands Are Sought After**
In the past two years, new e-commerce, new content, new marketing, and new media have emerged one after another. The construction of infrastructure needed for new consumption has been completed, so good products with scarce value have instead begun to be pursued.
E-cigarettes may become the first product category to be ignited in the new year, and various brand-new e-cigarette product brands will emerge one after another.
Since this category does not yet have a true head brand, influential public account bloggers with traffic may enter the e-cigarette market.
Therefore, quality products in sub-categories will gradually emerge. After the construction of new channels is completed, scarce product brands will lead the wave of innovative products.
But understanding products alone may not be enough. Understanding the essence of good products means understanding the supply chain, marketing, user operations, channel delivery, and product design. These five links determine whether the value chain of a product is amplified.

**People who make product brands are likely to succeed from the following fields:**
> **Those from advertising agencies, traditional factory supply chains, traditional FMCG fields, and designers.**
But frankly speaking, China does not have truly professional product managers, especially in the consumer goods field. Therefore, the Chinese consumer goods field also needs to initiate a theoretical upgrade of product managerism.
This is the new logic behind the birth of a new generation of product brands in this context.

**The Wave of Affordable Productism Rises**
Following the previous point, many people are asking me to predict what the hottest consumption wave in 2019 will be. I believe it will be the return of pragmatism in new consumer goods.
All users will begin to pursue a new generation of cost-effective products, and there will be a polarization. Discount store brands centered on the outlet model will rise, and big-name products and big brands will begin the path of channel and brand sinking. A typical example is IKEA starting to open smaller stores.
In terms of store scale, the extreme small-store model and the extreme large-store model will begin. Large stores will focus on content, moving towards a luxurious route in IP and design style.
Small stores will focus on being close to the community model, further providing services for single people. Large-store brands are mainly used to build brand influence, while small stores serve as capillaries to further penetrate services. The price war will become the main theme of 2019.

**Cash-Flow Consumer Projects Are Further Sought After, Regional Leading Brands Are Harvested**
In 2019, everyone is asking what type of projects should be invested in. From the perspective of capital seeking safety, 2019 will definitely be stable-oriented, so capital will naturally pursue stability.
Therefore, cash-flow projects will be prioritized, and at the same time, brands in various regional leading markets will have opportunities for integration and also opportunities for priority investment.
From this perspective, fields such as catering, home furnishing, food, and beauty will usher in a new wave of investment opportunities.

**Buying Overseas Brands Becomes a Fashion**
In the future, there will be a wave of opportunities to buy quality overseas product brands. With Arc'teryx as a symbol, Anta's acquisitions are just beginning.
The specific operation and purchase strategy is to go to European countries such as Sweden to buy brands that are not yet popular in China, cooperate with domestic channel providers, and then land and operate the brands in China.
In the future, there will be more and more opportunities for Chinese capital to go overseas to buy brands and merge. So we can review at the end of the year to see how many valuable existing assets of overseas brands are acquired. Opening an international perspective is also one of the important strategic goals of New Consumption Insider in 2018.

**Trendy Brands with Cultural Attributes Further Rise**
Culture and product consumption are increasingly closely related. Consumption of consumer goods brought by good cultural products will increasingly become a mainstream. Consumers not only consume the product itself but also consume the cultural attributes and spiritual labels behind the product.
As the post-95 generation begins to enter the workplace and become new trend representatives of consumption, more personalized consumption labels and consumer products will rise.
Aestheticism, comfortism, and Buddhist-style cultural products and consumer goods will combine, just like why Peppa Pig became popular. Therefore, after years of brewing lifestyle brands, China may see its own MUJI.

**A Large Number of Niche Brands Rise, and a Wave of Niche Brand Collection Stores Emerges**
In the future, consumers will increasingly not value big brands. The persona of big brands begins to collapse, and users begin to rise the trend of niche brands.
Brands that are only consumed within a certain circle will be increasingly sought after by consumers. Word-of-mouth effects and KOL effects become more and more obvious. People highly rely on recommendations from opinion leaders rather than advertisements.
Traditional brand advertising becomes increasingly difficult. Advertisements that cannot interact with users and cannot trigger topics have increasingly poor effects.
Therefore, how to influence KOLs will become more and more valuable. In the future, we will enter an era of guiding brands.

**Community Group Buying Heads to the Endgame, the Matthew Effect Arrives, and It Becomes a Mess**
Last year, I predicted the end of the unmanned shelf industry. I am not interested in all sudden hot spots. The group buying model is still the same. Although group buying is in full swing, big players will emerge in group buying.
But in the end, there may be fewer than three left, and companies supported by giants or incubated businesses will have more advantages. Let me briefly say why the windfall is getting shorter and shorter: because the innovation capabilities of giants and small giants are getting stronger and stronger. Companies like Miss Fresh have increasingly strong capabilities for continuous innovation and incubation.
Every time a windfall-type business appears, these companies quickly follow up in terms of team and organizational structure capabilities.
Therefore, there are fewer and fewer opportunities left for grassroots entrepreneurs, and the venture capital circle is increasingly showing a trend of aristocratic grouping.
Community group buying, as a windfall-type business, will definitely attract a large number of entrepreneurs. The more crowded the track, the higher the mortality rate.

**The First Year of Mergers and Acquisitions for New Consumer Goods Begins, and Professional Early-Stage Consumer Funds Emerge**
Recently, I chatted with a senior investment banker. The latest view is that 2019 may be the first year of brand investment and mergers and acquisitions. This year, opportunities for investment and M&A will be opened.
In particular, after many traditional brands cannot find new growth points, they will open their wallets and adopt a buy-buy-buy strategy. Especially some brands that have already become platforms may gain sales growth and strengthen their brand moats through investment in sub-categories.
At the same time, early-stage investment in consumer brands will begin. If four years ago was the beginning of early-stage education investment, the early-stage investment market for consumer brands will be opened, and a batch of new funds focused on investing in new consumer brands will emerge.

**The Era of Single Economy Consumption, Represented by One-Person Meal Brands, Arrives**
In 2019, the scale of the single economy will continue to expand, and the pet economy and one-person meals will rise. The pet food market will continue to expand and usher in a new wave of consumption upgrades in the pet food industry.
The era of quality dog food and cat food is coming. Driven by the single wave, one-person meal restaurants will continue to expand, and business will get better and better.
In the future, many restaurants will rise as one-person meal restaurants, and at the same time, stall-style businesses will rise. Affordable dining with an average price of around 100 yuan will become mainstream, and high-end dining may continue to diverge. The second-hand economy and the era of light fasting are coming, and the trend of dan-sha-ri (decluttering) begins to become popular.

**Cultural Consumption in Third- and Fourth-Tier Cities, Knowledge and Entertainment Explode**
If 2018 was the full sinking of product brands, then in 2019, cultural and entertainment consumption will sink from first- and second-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities after being oversupplied. Knowledge and entertainment and cultural consumption of people in third- and fourth-tier cities begin to rise, and the knowledge version of Pinduoduo in third- and fourth-tier cities ushers in new opportunities.
Let us encourage each other.
Source: New Consumption Insider (ID: cychuangye)
New Distribution will hold the **2019 (5th) FMCG + Internet Conference** during the Chengdu Spring Sugar and Wine Fair from March 15 to March 18. This conference will focus on the topic of **"Breaking the Game"** and conduct in-depth discussions with many brand owners, supply chain service providers, distributors, retailers, and others.
Compared with previous conferences, this summit will be fully upgraded. In addition to the original topics such as **channel innovation, city distribution logistics, and distributor transformation**, it will also add multiple parallel forums such as **new marketing cases, IP + FMCG empowerment, community group buying, and innovative retail**. Through three days of ten high-density and high-quality expert sharing and exchanges, we believe that every brand owner and distributor can learn the latest business models, expert opinions, and implementation methods, find new tools and methods for their own breakthrough in 2019, and return to the track of rapid growth.
Review of Previous Conferences
**-END-**


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