---
title: "The Takeout War Has Ended—Is the Direction for the 'Tough Business' of Lightning Warehouses Now Clear?"
description: "Some joke that the 'tough business' of lightning warehouses has made many owners truly 'cry.' Compared to a few years ago, running a lightning warehouse has become much harder. The takeout war last year brought a wave of new entrants who enjoyed subsidies, but after the war cooled down and subsidies faded, another batch of newcomers collapsed. Yet, at its core, lightning warehouses meet real needs for 'impulse, immediate wants' and daily purchases, giving them solid long-term value."
author: "老张"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2026-02-21"
categories: "E-commerce & Instant Retail"
language: "en"
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original_source: "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zHsvJ-RGA7tKh0f8mFlqwg"
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citation: "老张. “The Takeout War Has Ended—Is the Direction for the 'Tough Business' of Lightning Warehouses Now Clear?.” New Distribution, 2026-02-21. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/the-takeout-war-has-endedis-the-direction-for-the-tough-business-of-ligh-cd0a7e8c/"
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# The Takeout War Has Ended—Is the Direction for the 'Tough Business' of Lightning Warehouses Now Clear?

> Some joke that the 'tough business' of lightning warehouses has made many owners truly 'cry.' Compared to a few years ago, running a lightning warehouse has become much harder. The takeout war last year brought a wave of new entrants who enjoyed subsidies, but after the war cooled down and subsidies faded, another batch of newcomers collapsed. Yet, at its core, lightning warehouses meet real needs for 'impulse, immediate wants' and daily purchases, giving them solid long-term value.

**Source**丨老张聊零售
老张 Some joke that the 'tough business' of lightning warehouses has made many owners truly 'cry.' Compared to a few years ago, running a lightning warehouse has indeed become much harder. In the early days, you just needed to list products online and wait for orders. Now, there are noticeably more competitors around, intensifying competition in products, prices, and services. Last year, the takeout war erupted, bringing in many new merchants who enjoyed a round of subsidies. By this year, as the war cooled and subsidies faded, another batch of new entrants from last year collapsed. But if we return to the essence of retail, lightning warehouses excel at meeting 'impulse, immediate wants' and daily purchase needs. This precisely ensures a solid underlying demand and long-term value. So, how should we view lightning warehouses? How to endure the current 'pain'? And what directions can we take in the future? Let's discuss these today.
# Where Does the Pain of Lightning Warehouses Lie?
One major reason lightning warehouses are considered a tough business is that they lose the protective umbrella of 'distance.' In traditional offline business logic, location is a key moat, but instant retail delivers goods to the customer's doorstep, eliminating the distance advantage. It acts like a magnifying glass, giving capable merchants more orders while making it harder for those with weaker competitiveness to even hold onto their original local business. From this perspective, competition in lightning warehouses is stark. Opening a new lightning warehouse often requires 1-3 months of promotions to boost order volume and accumulate weight. Platform systems judge your capacity based on historical orders; without data, you get no exposure and even fewer orders. The problem: because there's no distance protection, a new warehouse's aggressive promotions affect all competitors within a three-kilometer radius. If your business district sees three to five new warehouses each year, each launching vigorous promotions, your order volume will decline repeatedly—doesn't that feel anxious and painful? And it doesn't end there. Many follow the trend, heeding brand advice to push sales aggressively, but brands take a commission on sales and don't bear losses, leaving franchise owners to suffer losses until they can't hold on and must clear stock and exit. When clearing stock, they discount heavily, impacting surrounding competitors again. Lightning warehouses are too easily affected by each other. Consumers search products on the platform, and all similar products in the same business district are visible, making price comparison direct. To compete for search rankings, many lightning warehouses must constantly monitor keywords, adjust prices, and invest in ads. Researching competitors? Now you don't need to secretly note prices; tools can automatically scrape product info from nearby warehouses and even set automatic price adjustments and ad bidding. Intense competition is driving rapid industry evolution. Early last year, the mainstream warehouse type had around 5,000 SKUs; this year, 'near-10,000 SKU' large warehouses have emerged, and mid-sized warehouses that can't keep up are being phased out. When warehouses close, inventory must be disposed of, giving rise to specialized 'warehouse buyers.' Last year, the buyout price was about 30% of the purchase price; this year, a friend in this business told me it's commonly only 10-20%. Previously, many thought lightning warehouses had low barriers and low risk: low rent, no renovation needed, just set up shelves and stock products to start. Even if you quit, you could sell the goods to recover costs. But now, risks are significant. Investing in a large inventory lightning warehouse requires nearly a million upfront; boosting weight costs another hundred thousand or so in promotions. If it fails, hundreds of thousands in inventory might only sell for a few thousand—losses are severe. High investment, intense competition, rapid iteration, and heavy losses on failure—the 'tough business' of lightning warehouses truly lives up to its name.
# The Takeout War Lit a 'False Fire' for Lightning Warehouses
Given the difficulty, why do people keep entering? One reason is that early years saw genuine supply shortages. Lightning warehouses were initiated within Meituan in 2020, and 2021-2023 were a dividend period, with many making money. A friend of mine opened a beauty lightning warehouse in Shanghai in 2022, with no prior experience, investing less than 100,000 yuan and achieving a million in profit in a year. That coincided with the pandemic, when offline shopping was inconvenient, online orders surged, and lightning warehouses only needed to list products and set a few low-price traffic drivers to ensure orders and profits. The second reason is the sudden outbreak of the 'takeout war' last year, attracting attention and newcomers. In early 2025, JD.com initiated, then Alibaba joined with 'Taobao Flash Purchase,' pushing the conflict to a climax. Several major platforms reportedly invested hundreds of billions in subsidies, pushing daily orders from tens of millions to hundreds of millions. Although called the 'takeout war,' instant retail was also a focus. New platforms heavily subsidized instant retail, causing a surge in industry order volume. But sudden order spikes aren't necessarily good. Retail is a systematic project; order volume corresponds to inventory, warehousing, staffing, and processes. Short-term order surges may outpace backend capabilities. For example, lightning warehouse aisles are generally narrower than those of front warehouses (like Pupu Supermarket) because the former typically handle 200-800 orders daily, while the latter may reach 2,000-6,000. If lightning warehouse orders suddenly spike, factors like product placement, area size, and narrow aisles affect picking efficiency. When the takeout war cooled and orders fell, the systems adjusted for high volume couldn't quickly shrink back. This imbalance made many lightning warehouse owners very uncomfortable. Moreover, during the war, many inflated orders were loss-making orders driven by subsidies. The war also attracted more novice entrepreneurs. By 2025, many lightning warehouse franchise brands emerged, advertising on short-video platforms with enticing pitches—'Open a store for tens of thousands, earn 30,000-50,000 a month, easy and free.' Many such brands, possibly previously in milk tea franchising, saw the lightning warehouse trend and applied the same 'harvesting' tactics, trapping many newcomers. In short, the takeout war brought a wave of false fire, attracting many blind entrants. As they exited with losses, they also disrupted market rhythms. When will lightning warehouses return to health? Probably after those swept up by the hype gradually leave, and everyone does business with a normal mindset, stabilizing the industry environment. Now, as the takeout war fades, fewer people talk about huge profits and subsidies; they're returning to practicalities like products, services, and supply chains, seeking long-term stable returns. Lightning warehouses aren't magical; like other businesses, they have cycles: when profits are easy, many enter; with more supply, profitability becomes harder; when some can't hold on and exit, competition eases, and business improves. Profits always fluctuate around a reasonable value—lightning warehouses are no exception.
# Lightning Warehouses Remain a Long, Snowy Slope
Lightning warehouses are indeed tough now and affected by external chaos, but from first principles, they remain a worthwhile long-term track. Their fundamental value lies in solving immediate needs and daily purchases. Forgetting a charger at a hotel, needing a swimsuit for swimming, or urgently needing a suitcase after buying too much—these are times when lightning warehouses are often the best solution. Moreover, as categories expand, they've become a choice for daily purchases. All retail formats address certain needs: e-commerce focuses on 'variety' and 'savings,' supermarkets meet daily needs, and lightning warehouses capture 'convenience' and 'immediacy'—no one is better suited for this positioning. Because the underlying demand is real, it attracts professional, serious entrepreneurs. Lao Huang, born in 1986, worked in retail for 15 years but only truly started his own business in 2024 by joining a lightning warehouse brand. In just over a year, he opened four warehouses in eastern Guangdong, with 8,000 SKUs per store and stable average orders of 10,000-15,000 per store, ranking in the top tier locally. Lao Huang caught the takeout war last year but viewed it coldly. 'Orders did surge, but few made money, and daily operations became chaotic,' he said. His philosophy is to treat lightning warehouses as a slow-paced retail business, refining daily operations and leveraging the brand's capabilities. He shares this philosophy with the brand, focusing on operational detail. Lao Huang said the brand provides 'nanny-style' support: owners only manage in-warehouse picking and packing, while selection, online operations, and automatic replenishment are centrally handled by the brand. Just in product selection and stocking, this saves owners 1-3 hours daily, and returns are supported, reducing inventory risk. Liu Wei in a central China city, originally ran a traditional convenience store and joined Squirrel Convenience in April 2025, opening three stores in less than a year. He tried other businesses before but long-term, he prefers the lightning warehouse direction. In his view, besides central warehouse support, Squirrel Convenience excels in refined operations—the system clearly shows order details, provides same-district data comparisons, and indicates which categories to strengthen, helping owners identify weaknesses. Fang Zheng in Jinhua first joined locally, then followed the brand to Kunming to open two new stores. He values 'safety' in investment, recognizes the lightning warehouse direction, and trusts the brand's model, finding it suitable for him. Lightning warehouses are a long track with thick snow, but different brands can yield vastly different results. A gradually clear trend is that professional brands transformed by traditional retail people will strengthen, while independent stores may have shrinking space. Why? 1. Small players struggle to build central warehouses. Without one, they must hold more inventory in front warehouses, can't flexibly return or exchange goods, face capital pressure, and have lower operational efficiency. Central warehouse systems show greater advantages with scale. 2. Large brands are moving upstream in the supply chain, attempting to customize daily necessities. Lightning warehouses are stuck in a cycle of 'product homogenization—price competition,' and product differentiation may only be driven by large brands with scale. 3. Operations are becoming more complex, requiring data support. How to allocate inventory and set strategies for different districts, competitors, and stages? This requires extensive data samples and professional teams, which small players lack. 4. Leading brands are more relaxed in expansion. A leading brand told me their recruitment team has only three people, does no promotion, and only handles inquiries—yet they open stores faster than many small and medium brands. 5. Consumers in the same district are limited; as warehouses become denser, per-warehouse orders dilute, reducing efficiency. Long-term, orders are likely to concentrate on better-operated large warehouses. Ultimately, the underlying demand for lightning warehouses is solid. The industry will trend toward professional operation and brand concentration. For practitioners, seeing trends and finding the right model may help them walk more steadily on this long, thick snow slope.
**【Moving Toward the C-End】********The 11th China FMCG Conference****Time: March 16-18, 2026****Location: Chengdu, China****


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## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: 老张
- Published: 2026-02-21
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/the-takeout-war-has-endedis-the-direction-for-the-tough-business-of-ligh-cd0a7e8c/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zHsvJ-RGA7tKh0f8mFlqwg

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