---
title: "“Terminal sales sluggish, distributors lose confidence,” FMCG beverage manufacturers in 2025 CNY: attack or defend?"
description: "With two months left in 2024, a review shows that while expanding increment was the initial marketing approach for major brands, after three quarters it's clear that defending existing volume should be the most practical goal this year. Whether due to sluggish consumer markets or channel fragmentation, brands must strategize for the coming year, especially the upcoming 'opening red' (CNY sales season). The author shares insights on how to break through in 2025's opening red, based on recent market visits."
author: "邢仁宝"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2024-10-24"
language: "en"
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# “Terminal sales sluggish, distributors lose confidence,” FMCG beverage manufacturers in 2025 CNY: attack or defend?

> With two months left in 2024, a review shows that while expanding increment was the initial marketing approach for major brands, after three quarters it's clear that defending existing volume should be the most practical goal this year. Whether due to sluggish consumer markets or channel fragmentation, brands must strategize for the coming year, especially the upcoming 'opening red' (CNY sales season). The author shares insights on how to break through in 2025's opening red, based on recent market visits.

With two months left in 2024, a review shows that expanding increment was the initial marketing approach for major brands, but after three quarters, it's clear that **defending existing volume should be the most practical goal this year.**
Whether due to sluggish consumer markets or channel fragmentation, brands must take time to think about next year's strategies, especially the upcoming 'opening red' (CNY sales season). Should we attack or defend? How to break through and quickly find the key to invigorating the market?
Based on recent market visits, I'd like to share some thoughts on how to break through in 2025's opening red.

**Consensus First: Manufacturers and Distributors Face the Market Together**
**This is the first prerequisite for winning the opening red campaign.**
At a manufacturer-distributor seminar, a distributor who has partnered with a brand for over a decade reviewed this year's operations and gave the manufacturer his views: **"This year I invested nearly several hundred thousand more than last year, but profits are far less. The manufacturer gave many promotional policies, but I feel I didn't truly benefit much. This year, inventory has risen, but price levels have dropped. Now we're selling at inverted prices, and the reimbursement cycle is long. Sub-distributors are unwilling to stock up more, and even at ordering meetings, we can't collect much money!"**
This distributor's soul-searching question may be the operational reality for many brand distributors this year.
In fact, manufacturers know best whether distributors are making money. But under performance pressure, manufacturer staff often avoid the issue. "How can you not make money? It's just a matter of more or less! Only by completing tasks can you get rebates! Pay this month's payment first, and you can recover some of the previously advanced expenses! Business is tough for everyone now; if not, we'll cut the XX market and let Old Wang do it."
So, distributors still ignore the near-overflowing inventory, borrow money or take loans, and pay again, then wait for the manufacturer to provide resources and distribution policies as usual. Month after month, the manufacturer-distributor relationship becomes increasingly sensitive.
**Manufacturers and distributors have different interests. In the era of increment, when the overall environment was good, even if customers were in a passive position in the relationship, they had confidence and could tolerate, cooperating to complete sales and stock up without major issues.**
But in the current declining economic consumption environment, distributors' self-awareness has gradually awakened, and their market judgment is more rational. Manufacturers must change their mindset, truly think from the customer's and market's perspective, establish timely and positive communication mechanisms, help distributors face difficulties, and jointly analyze and solve problems. This is the first prerequisite for achieving sales targets.

**Accurately Assess Market Capacity and Set Reasonable Sales Targets**
**This is the second prerequisite for winning the opening red campaign.**
This year, some manufacturers continued the marketing inertia of the increment era, still pursuing high growth targets, and many experienced high expectations but great disappointment.
The rise of new channels has impacted traditional markets; economic downturn has led to declining consumer spending, causing slow product sell-through at the channel end; terminal display competition has increased costs and reduced investment effectiveness; channel customers cannot bear the continuous pressure of stocking and change frequently; cross-regional channel conflict is frequent, and channel price levels decline.
Under these problems, excessively high sales targets lead to deformed business actions and customer pressure, which has become a fact that frontline staff and customers of some manufacturers dare not speak about. I believe that **targets exceeding market absorption capacity, in an era of shrinking volume, especially during economic downturn, can easily lead to loss of confidence among teams and customers, disruption of goods flow and price levels, reduced customer profits, and discounted resource efficiency.**
Therefore, accurately assessing market capacity and setting and reasonably decomposing targets should be the first problem manufacturers solve. I suggest trying the following methods to set market targets reasonably.

**1. Market Research**
Management should extensively visit wholesale and terminal markets, observe product market share, understand product sell-through, especially the sales target completion of major competitors' customers, and observe the confidence of customers at all levels in future operations.

**2. Data Analysis**
Retrieve order and distribution data from the past 5 years, combined with recent trends in local GDP and per capita disposable income. Use reports from Nielsen and other consulting firms to judge category share trends.

**3. Inventory Analysis**
Understand the true inventory status of customers at all levels in the market, estimate distribution cycles, and use this as a basis for adjusting 2025 sales targets. Additionally, the timing of the opening red varies each year, so calculate reasonably based on the Spring Festival date.

**Firmly Defend Existing Markets, Actively Expand Downward Markets**
**Focus on Scenarios to Promote Case Sales, Strengthen Incentives to Boost Morale**
Current competition among brands is a zero-sum game for existing volume. Every brand's advantageous markets and outlets face the huge risk of being eroded. **Brand manufacturers should primarily defend existing volume, with expanding increment as secondary, as the cost of expanding increment is much higher than defending existing volume.**
Therefore, in the 2025 opening red, resources and energy should still be tilted towards the brand's own quality customers, high-selling channels, and heavy consumers. Optimize the existing sales network structure, standardize business actions, and enhance brand communication with consumers.
Specifically, break down into the following actions:

**1. Stabilize Channel Prices to Boost Confidence**
The 2025 Spring Festival is at the end of January, so the opening red period is shorter than previous years. Completing sales tasks requires strong channel push and capacity.
Achieving this requires two conditions:
**First, the manufacturer's control over price levels is stable and effective.** Ensure customers can earn higher profits than competitors, and avoid goods flow disruption due to increased promotional intensity during the opening red. **This requires manufacturers to implement stricter goods flow monitoring and penalty plans.**
**Second, it is recommended to hold a channel customer appreciation meeting at year-end.** Objectively analyze the current FMCG situation for customers, explain the manufacturer's 2025 marketing strategy and support policies, and give customers confidence.
At the same time, announce channel customer distribution tier policies with greater intensity during the opening red: the larger the distribution volume, the higher the benefits. For channel customers with storefronts or near wholesale markets, provide stack display rewards, supplemented by banners, hanging flags, and other visual merchandising to create brand momentum.
For customers with insufficient inventory or second-time purchases, moderately carry out purchase rewards and monitor goods flow.

**2. Inventory Channels to Defend Existing Volume**
Brand manufacturers should screen core regional outlets in November, listing high-selling outlets with stable sell-through and marking their priority.
During the opening red, increase visit frequency to these outlets, ensure sufficient inventory, and secure core display positions such as display cabinets, cashier stacks, and end caps. For terminals vulnerable to competitor erosion, it is recommended to sign annual display contracts in advance and promptly reward based on actual sales to enhance terminal proactive selling ability.
Also, during the opening red, give these core stores Spring Festival gifts like couplets and lucky bags, so terminals feel the manufacturer's differentiated management warmth.

**3. Expand Increment in Downward Markets**
Based on this year's market visits and economic data from downward markets, consumption in county and township downward markets is growing significantly faster than in high-tier cities, which are stagnating.
Therefore, quickly deploying network coverage in downward markets should be key for brands to seize increment opportunities. Many manufacturers' business has already penetrated townships, but due to large urban-rural spans, scattered outlets, and difficulty in executing routine operations, service and management in downward markets are severely insufficient.
Develop suitable township distributors, set effective rebate and assessment standards, create phased development plans, allocate appropriate development resources and promotional materials, and assign capable business managers. Tap into consumption opportunities in township markets such as gatherings, folk customs, weddings, and entertainment. The sales increment and share advantage brought by this will be immeasurable for brand sales performance.

**4. Focus on Scenarios and Special Channels**
Products must follow mainstream groups and scenarios. Only by occupying mainstream groups and scenarios can companies stay ahead in competition.
The era of high distribution leading to high sales is over. Now, product distribution channels need to deeply align with consumption scenarios to bring higher frequency repurchase opportunities. This requires beverage manufacturers to better understand young consumers' lifestyles.
This year, tourism, entertainment, and health have become the most popular consumption directions for young groups: famous mountains and rivers, check-in spots, internet cafes, billiard halls, gyms, yoga studios, sports venues, etc. Brand manufacturers should focus on these in the next opening red, seize limited display positions in these channels, and cooperate with channels for cross-industry promotions, fully reflecting product selling points like hydration, energy, and low sugar. Remember, special channels are the best places for brand cultivation and creating heavy consumers.

**5. Be Willing to Try Emerging Channels**
In recent years, channel changes have intensified, and emerging channels have emerged. Snack discount stores, instant retail channels, community group buying, social e-commerce, and live-stream e-commerce constantly impact traditional channels. Should we actively respond or block and avoid? Many manufacturers choose the latter.
My suggestion is to respond flexibly and be willing to try. Especially when market increment is insufficient, if young consumers have formed purchasing habits in certain channels, products should appear in front of them.
For example, snack discount stores, which have already penetrated from cities to counties and townships, may see a shopping boom in the next opening red. We should not give up such opportunities. Concerns about low prices impacting traditional channels can be solved through differentiated exclusive packaging, such as appropriately reducing product capacity, or multi-pack special offers, or printing channel-exclusive labels.
Additionally, instant retail channels are also in a rapid growth stage. Beverage manufacturers should also leverage cooperation to grasp more increment opportunities.

**6. Strengthen Team Incentives**
After the year-end finale and opening red, frontline team incentives must be sufficient. Set tiered per-case incentives according to completion pace, so that hard work leads to higher income.
Note that many manufacturers like to add a threshold during the opening red, requiring the team to achieve overall goals before individuals can enjoy incentives. I believe this is not conducive to stimulating each team member's potential. It is suggested that when the team achieves a minimum goal, such as 80%, individuals can enjoy incentives; when reaching 100%, individuals can get 1.5 times the original incentive.
Also, incentives should be set so that more than half of the people can get them. If more people cannot get rewards, it indicates a problem with goal setting.
Facing this year's business state, many beverage manufacturers do not dare to have high expectations for the 2025 opening red.
I believe that **"gathering momentum" for development, "knowing the situation" to break through, and "accumulating momentum" to leap forward** should be the mindset for manufacturers during this period. In times of change, be brave to add or subtract from past experience: discard what should be discarded, fill gaps, strengthen your own advantages, and understand consumers more comprehensively. In daily management, don't pursue fast running and overtaking, but take small steps and iterate, and be brave to innovate.
Finally, quoting Teacher Zhao Bo's words, "The era of shrinking volume is a necessary stage for the birth of great enterprises." I wish everyone a great start in 2025 and success in taking the lead.
Xing Renbao, with 14 years of marketing management experience, has served Coca-Cola, Yili, Red Bull, and other well-known FMCG companies, focusing on corporate marketing diagnosis, manufacturer-distributor relationships, channel operations, and digital transformation.


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