---
title: "Surviving the Critical 100 Days!"
description: "No matter how long and dark the night, the sun will always rise as usual! Simple blind pessimism or optimism is wrong. During pandemic controls, believing all difficulties were caused by controls and there was no hope without lifting them was wrong. After lifting, believing all difficulties were over and everything would return to normal was also wrong. Half a month after lifting, with soaring infections and consumers avoiding offline consumption, thinking all efforts were in vain is still wrong. Any simple and blind pessimism or optimism will prove to be a big mistake."
author: "陈思廷"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2022-12-14"
language: "en"
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---

# Surviving the Critical 100 Days!

> No matter how long and dark the night, the sun will always rise as usual! Simple blind pessimism or optimism is wrong. During pandemic controls, believing all difficulties were caused by controls and there was no hope without lifting them was wrong. After lifting, believing all difficulties were over and everything would return to normal was also wrong. Half a month after lifting, with soaring infections and consumers avoiding offline consumption, thinking all efforts were in vain is still wrong. Any simple and blind pessimism or optimism will prove to be a big mistake.

**Lead: No matter how long and dark the night, the sun will always rise as usual!**
Simple blind pessimism or optimism is wrong. During pandemic controls, believing all difficulties were caused by controls and there was no hope without lifting them was wrong. After lifting, believing all difficulties were over and everything would return to normal was also wrong. Half a month after lifting, with soaring infections and consumers avoiding offline consumption, thinking all efforts were in vain is still wrong. Any simple and blind pessimism or optimism will prove to be a big mistake. The previous pandemic controls were a state-led mandatory fight against the epidemic. Today, the state has unloaded the burden of one-shoulder controls, which is precisely the real beginning of the fight for enterprises and individuals. In a sense, we will enter another difficult period of epidemic response. For some FMCG manufacturers, this is a more difficult period than the past three years. If you make wrong judgments and choices at this time, you are likely to fall in the darkness before dawn. To emphasize again, the final victory over the epidemic is coming, but it has not yet arrived. The 100 days from today will be the darkest period before dawn. FMCG manufacturers, especially distributors, must have accurate judgments about the epidemic and market situation in the next 100 days, fully anticipate difficulties, and make the most comprehensive solutions. There may be a batch of distributors falling before dawn, but we hope none of the readers of this article will be among them.

**How to Judge the Current and Overall Situation in 2023**
To judge the situation accurately, you must first have a clear mind, at least not fall into misunderstandings. All misunderstandings stem from simple thinking and hasty judgment. **First, do not think that the epidemic is over just because controls are lifted.** If epidemic prevention were that simple, it would be an insult to the arduous efforts we have made over the past three years. In fact, after the lifting of controls, it is the beginning of the fight for our enterprises and employees. Do your best to ensure your own health and the health of your team to ensure the normal operation of the company. If infection is unavoidable, have a plan in advance to avoid collective collapse. **Second, do not simply think that consumption will recover immediately once controls are lifted.** Extensive market visits and research by New Distribution have proven that in the past half month, in most cities with outbreaks, most consumer goods have declined significantly. Except for epidemic prevention materials, the situation for most consumer goods is worse than before the lifting of controls. Especially in the catering industry, business is often only 20-30% of previous levels. Although this difficulty is temporary, if you do not have accurate predictions and psychological preparation, it is uncertain whether you can survive this cold shower. **Third, even if you survive the epidemic, you cannot go back to the past.** Three years ago, the world had no Russia-Ukraine conflict, China-US relations were still fighting but not breaking, economic globalization was still the main theme, China's economy was stable and improving, and people had a strong sense of security and certainty about the future. Today's world has changed completely. The market environment and economic situation have changed, consumers have changed, competitors, competitive methods, and growth methods have changed, and even we ourselves have undergone profound changes. This round of economic downturn is global, not just China; the reasons for the downturn are far more than just the epidemic. Teacher Peng Jianfeng made an analogy: "The economy is not a truck on the ground, but a plane in the sky." When the economy stalls, it does not slow down like a truck, but falls from the sky like a stalled plane. To restart the economy, it will not be like a truck that moves when you give it gas, but like a plane taking off, requiring a long runway and taxiing. If you lack research and vigilance about the changes in these three years, even after the epidemic passes, you will not find the familiar feeling. The social epidemic has passed, but your "epidemic" has not. The above three points make us clear-headed, but how will the epidemic develop in our country? Hou Xiaohai, CEO of China Resources Snow Breweries, has been closely following the trends in countries and regions after lifting controls since mid-year. He has the following judgments on the first wave:
First, after lifting controls, the virus will spread faster, possibly exceeding Europe and even Japan, and will also exit the epidemic faster, showing Chinese speed;
Second, first-tier cities will likely pass the first peak before the Spring Festival;
Third, second- and third-tier cities and rural areas will basically pass the first peak in the first quarter of 2023.
Counting the time, it is exactly 100 days. And these 100 days are the life-and-death 100 days for our vast number of small and medium-sized FMCG enterprises and distributors. If we successfully pass these 100 days, we will usher in the real dawn; but this darkness before dawn will be painful, and we must not take it lightly. To judge the consumption trends and recovery pace after the epidemic, we should "cross the river by feeling the stones" from Europe and the US. The China Resources Snow Breweries team has been closely monitoring and studying the consumption trends in Europe, the US, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other countries and regions after lifting controls for several months. Europe has been open for a year, and Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan for half a year. Based on their development trends and combined with the situation in mainland China, a relatively accurate comprehensive judgment can be formed. Therefore, the post-epidemic FMCG trend will likely be: **a three-month low period, a three-month recovery period, and then a development period.**

**How FMCG Manufacturers Can Survive the Critical 100 Days**
Based on the epidemic development in the past month, China Resources Snow Breweries will also organize meetings to assess the situation and discuss countermeasures, and will further formulate a new goal and strategy. Hou Xiaohai's goal is to maintain the basic market share and strive not to decline during the first quarter's low period, given the Spring Festival market; in the second quarter, the recovery period, to seize growth points and achieve positive growth; in the third quarter and beyond, the development period, to strengthen execution and ensure high growth. General FMCG manufacturers can learn from China Resources Snow Breweries' judgment on the epidemic and consumption trends, as well as its response methods and pace. Famous marketing expert Teacher Liu Chunxiong suggests that during these 100 days, we should rethink "opportunities and risk avoidance."

**Dangers mainly in two aspects:**
First, personnel shortages, causing abnormal logistics, production, supply chains, and coordination issues between manufacturers and distributors.
Second, insufficient consumer confidence, including:
Terminals generally lack confidence in the Spring Festival peak season, especially during the current Spring Festival stocking period;
Consumers dare not engage in gathering consumption. Whether to visit relatives during the Spring Festival, and whether to have gatherings with classmates, friends, and fellow townspeople when returning home, are currently unknown;
Returning home for family reunions with elderly and children, they are even less willing to risk gathering consumption.

**Opportunities mainly include:** First, apart from gathering consumption, other normal household consumption is rigid demand; the impact on other manufacturers is your opportunity. Second, past experience shows that in years of low confidence, there were shortages during the Spring Festival; in years of high confidence, there was overstock. Third, the epidemic has shortened the window for Spring Festival stocking, and different cities have different outbreak times, so the windows differ. Whoever can quickly complete Spring Festival stocking in a shorter window will seize the opportunity.

In addition to the above suggestions, to successfully overcome these critical 100 days, we believe there are several basic actions to take immediately.

Chen Siting, CEO of New Distribution, senior FMCG media person, and consultant.
Former editor-in-chief of "Sales and Marketing" magazine, marketing consultant for Tanmuzhu, and founder of the internet supply chain project "Wanchaobang". He has in-depth research and practice in brand planning and communication for consumer goods, distributor model transformation and upgrading, and supply chain innovation and reform, using a professional perspective to study the Chinese market.


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