---
title: "Seeing the Shift of Times Requires a God's-Eye View"
description: "A God's-eye view means thinking from the highest dimension, understanding cause and effect, and foreseeing the future. In today's uncertain era, Chinese enterprises need such a perspective to find certainty and navigate the future."
author: "刘春雄"
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published: "2024-01-29"
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---

# Seeing the Shift of Times Requires a God's-Eye View

> A God's-eye view means thinking from the highest dimension, understanding cause and effect, and foreseeing the future. In today's uncertain era, Chinese enterprises need such a perspective to find certainty and navigate the future.

What is a God's-eye view?
God is omnipotent, seeing through everything, especially cause and effect. Simply put, God stands at the highest dimension. **A God's-eye view is thinking from the highest dimension.**
Does a God's-eye view exist in reality? Of course. In novels, there are often psychological descriptions of the protagonist. How does the author know the protagonist's mind? That's a God's-eye view. Also, when discussing history, it's the same. Because for today's discussants, historical information is certain, despite disagreements on details. For example, when we say how the rulers of the late Qing Dynasty did this or that, it seems we are smarter than the highest ruling class of that time. That's only because we have a God's-eye view today, while people then did not. Time-travel dramas are typical God's-eye views. There's an interesting discussion: If you could relive your life, how would you live it without regret? That's also a God's-eye view, because you've lived most of your life and know how to live it again, at least avoiding regrets.
China's reform and opening-up, though exploratory and localized, had a God's-eye view. As a catching-up country, it looked at how leaders led, and how followers succeeded or failed. Using others' history as a reference coordinate for China's future. Learning from history itself involves a God's-eye view. **China's marketing enlightenment, localization, and even internationalization had half a God's-eye view, at least avoiding mistakes others made.** China's internet process had no God's-eye view. As the first to traverse the dark zone of the internet, China faced no coordinates for the first time, and for the first time in economics, there was no history to learn from. **Currently, China's economy, enterprises, and marketing are approaching a stage where there is no history to learn from. So, how to chart the future path? We need a bit of God's-eye view.** A God's-eye view gives a bit of certainty to the future.
In recent years, the term VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) has become popular, even fashionable. It has brought bad results. When encountering problems, people think it's the end of the world. Or when discovering a new track, they rush in, seeing it as the last straw. Without predicting the future, there is no strategy. Without strategy, living in the moment, surviving, enduring... these helpless words become popular. Some even turn this into chicken soup for self-anesthesia. **At this time, we especially need a God's-eye view. Even standing at the forefront, we can foresee the future.** As someone said, strategy starts with the future and plans the present. So when China is at the forefront in many fields, it indeed needs a God's-eye view. Otherwise, there's no way to plan the present.
There is no God in the world, but there can be a God's-eye view. Note, I'm not talking about God, but the God's-eye view. A God's-eye view has patterns. As long as there are patterns, it can be taught. Some study change, some study constancy, some study the laws of change. **The laws of change are the God's-eye view.** In this pessimistic and confused time, how do we foresee the future? As far as I can, there are several models.
**The future is a continuation of the present.** This is human instinct, no expertise needed. In stock and real estate markets, chasing highs and selling lows is like this. Despite all economic expertise telling you to buy low and sell high, chasing highs and selling lows is the simplest way to predict the future, even becoming instinct. This instinct is professionally called **"regression analysis."** Regression analysis assumes the future trend is unchanged. At a certain stage, this holds. But at turning points, it doesn't. Making money in bull markets, losing in bear markets—doesn't necessarily require expertise. But expertise might tell you when the bull or bear market ends. **The future is a continuation of the present. This doesn't need a God's-eye view; human evolution has given us this common ability.**
**The future is a catch-up with signposts.** Infancy, youth, adulthood, middle age, old age... Life has signposts, it's inevitable. This inevitability is inescapable. At each stage, the next stage is known. As someone who has been through it, you have a God's-eye view. Parents, teachers, and elders often educate the young this way because they've experienced it, carrying a God's-eye view. But as the later generation, you always rebel a bit. Even rebellion itself becomes one of life's coordinates. Product growth has a product life cycle, enterprise growth has a corporate life cycle, industry growth has industry growth patterns, and national development also has patterns. Once you understand them, you carry a God's-eye view.
**The future is a cyclical continuation of the present.** This has half a God's-eye view. For example, Li Ka-shing is particularly good at counter-cyclical operations. Doing things others don't understand and even scold. That's a master. Recently, the term "cycle" has become popular, like growth through cycles. That's good. Actually, China, as a nation of agricultural civilization, naturally has cyclical concepts. For example, dynasty changes, seasons, birth, aging, sickness, and death. Nevertheless, we don't fully understand the cyclicality of industrial civilization. Industrial civilization naturally has cyclicality, but not the repetitive cycle of seasons or dynasties, but a spiral upward cycle. **The law of cycles is that the next direction is the opposite of the present. This is contrary to regression analysis.** When others are cautious, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am cautious. This applies to cycle laws. **Drucker said that an enterprise only matures after experiencing three or more cycles.** This shows that understanding the cyclicality of industrial civilization requires hitting the "south wall" multiple times to be effective.
**The future is different from the present; it's a mutation of the present.** Like genetic mutation. China's historical cyclicality suddenly faced the Industrial Revolution, which was not in any Chinese person's rationality. Denial, fear, acceptance, learning... this is a normal process. With the experience of facing the Industrial Revolution, China faced the internet society much more calmly. China's consumer internet is already at the world's forefront. As a pioneer exploring the technological frontier, entering the dark zone, China has no experience yet.
As stated at the beginning, a God's-eye view is most importantly about understanding cause and effect, and the evolution of cause and effect over time. Seeing through everything is hard; understanding cause and effect, and then foreseeing the future, is not so hard. Standing at the forefront, the hardest is foreseeing the future. That's something only God can do. Understanding cause and effect is something a God's-eye view can do. All cause-and-effect relationships are also time relationships. **Today's causes are tomorrow's results. Today's causes are observable. Tomorrow's results are analyzable.**
With the analytical logic of a God's-eye view, we try to give a bit of certainty to the future. In decision-making, even bad certainty is better than good uncertainty. Some future developments are catch-ups with signposts. Going global, premiumization, supply chain revolution... these are catch-ups with signposts. Brand going global means redoing deep distribution in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This has a time coordinate. The US has had it, China has had it, and Asia, Africa, and Latin America will have it too. Premiumization: Europe and the US have had it, China will have it, and in the future, Asia, Africa, and Latin America will too. Supply chain revolution: Europe and the US have experienced it, and China is about to. **Some events are destined to happen, just waiting for the right time. When the time comes and conditions mature, they will happen again.** Cyclical cycles: China has already had several economic cycles. 1989, 1997, 2008, 2020... almost every 10 years. However, China's 40-plus years of industrial revolution condensed about 300 years of Western history. Therefore, China's economic cycles also imply major structural adjustments. **Under structural adjustment, a new cycle is a completely different state.** The cycle becomes a batch elimination of traditional forces and a large-scale rise of new forces. Waiting, lying flat, enduring... may have no place in the new cycle.
When Watt invented the steam engine, he didn't foresee the Industrial Revolution. When Faraday discovered electromagnetic induction, he didn't foresee the electric revolution. When the internet was invented, no one foresaw Taobao or Pinduoduo. The hardest future to predict is when there are no clues in the present. At such times, a God's-eye view is useless; only God has the answer. Since the Second Industrial Revolution, in the commercialization wave of technological revolutions, the US hasn't missed a step, Japan has failed, and Europe has problems. How can China avoid falling behind in every new wave of commercial revolution brought by new technologies? This is the problem facing China, which is now in the dark zone at the forefront. **I think three words are key: First, pay attention to pioneering technologies.** The current technological state of the world is similar to the US after the invention of radio 100 years ago. The commercialization of technology gave birth to special new business models. So, special attention should be paid to technological innovation. **Second, the Vision derived from technological innovation.** Former Alibaba chief strategist Zeng Ming talked about frontier strategy Vision and mentioned two keywords. One is seeing the big from the small—discerning profound changes from small changes; the other is building a new business system based on first principles. **Third, commercial experimentation.** Seeing the big from the small carries great risk; only commercial exploration can confirm whether a business is viable.
More than 10 years ago, I drove back to Zhengzhou from a city 100 kilometers away. Setting off in the evening, a friend suggested I take a shortcut. The shortcut had just been built but not officially opened. Shortly after departure, I encountered heavy fog. GPS wasn't widespread then. After driving for a while, I felt panicked and fearful. I didn't know where I was or if I was heading in the right direction. The road was unfamiliar, and there were no other vehicles. I drove on recklessly for nearly an hour until I finally saw a familiar landmark through the fog. I knew where I was and that the direction was right. By then, I was already near the city center of Zhengzhou. The intent of writing this article is to explain that the biggest difficulty in business operations today is not the bad macro environment, not the internet's influence, not the US-China decoupling. **As long as something is predictable, it's not a problem; you can prepare in advance.** The most terrifying problem is: **not knowing where you are, and not knowing where the future direction is.**
**A God's-eye view doesn't make you God, but a higher-dimensional perspective.** You can't see the true face of Mount Lu because you're in the mountain. Coordinate thinking, cyclical thinking, Vision thinking—these are all ways of thinking with a God's-eye view. With a God's-eye view, you'll know that no matter how much uncertainty there is, there is always certainty.
**PS**: **From March 14-16, 2024, the 9th China FMCG Innovation Conference, the 2nd China FMCG Hard Discount Conference, and the 2nd China FMCG Distributor Conference will be grandly held in Chengdu!** This conference will focus on the theme of **"Supply Chain Revolution"**. Over 3 days, there will be one main forum, one China FMCG Hard Discount Conference, one China FMCG Distributor Conference, more than ten sub-forums and closed-door exchange sessions, and the first-ever [Extreme Supply Chain] Brand Factory Direct Sourcing Fair. We will gather with thousands of FMCG brand owners, distributors, retail transformers, and industry service providers from across the country in Chengdu for continuous brainstorming, jointly exploring the challenges and opportunities, changes and ways out in the era of supply chain revolution. In this era of supply chain revolution, a new business era will be born. We hope every participant will still have a place in this wave, and we believe this will be a worthwhile conference! For conference business cooperation, please contact:


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