---
title: "Opportunities and Window Periods for FMCG Enterprises' 'Self-Rescue'"
description: "The panic period is over, the situation is clear, and new channels have opened. The key is not to fear lack of sales but lack of consumption; as long as there is consumption, sales will follow. Adapting to new channels like home delivery is crucial for self-rescue, and seizing the short window period for sales is essential."
author: "刘春雄"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2020-02-09"
categories: "Dealer Operations"
language: "en"
canonical: "https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/opportunities-and-window-periods-for-fmcg-enterprises-self-rescue-1ae608cd/"
markdown: "https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/opportunities-and-window-periods-for-fmcg-enterprises-self-rescue-1ae608cd.md"
original_source: "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UEeJvnBlTkaqSPaIwQQrJQ"
translation: "https://xinjignxiao.com/zh/articles/%E5%BF%AB%E6%B6%88%E5%93%81%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A-%E8%87%AA%E6%95%91-%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E7%82%B9%E4%B8%8E%E7%AA%97%E5%8F%A3%E6%9C%9F-1ae608cd.md"
attribution: "New Distribution — https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/opportunities-and-window-periods-for-fmcg-enterprises-self-rescue-1ae608cd/"
citation: "刘春雄. “Opportunities and Window Periods for FMCG Enterprises' 'Self-Rescue'.” New Distribution, 2020-02-09. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/opportunities-and-window-periods-for-fmcg-enterprises-self-rescue-1ae608cd/"
usage_policy: "https://xinjignxiao.com/ai-policy.txt"
---

# Opportunities and Window Periods for FMCG Enterprises' 'Self-Rescue'

> The panic period is over, the situation is clear, and new channels have opened. The key is not to fear lack of sales but lack of consumption; as long as there is consumption, sales will follow. Adapting to new channels like home delivery is crucial for self-rescue, and seizing the short window period for sales is essential.

**First, emphasize several viewpoints:**
1. The panic period is over, the situation is clear, and new channels have opened.
2. Don't fear no sales, fear no consumption. As long as there is consumption, sales will come eventually.
3. Don't fear no sales, fear no channels.
Because many residential communities are sealed off, and users fear crowds. "Home delivery" (to the gate) has become the main channel, with in-store as a supplementary channel. Therefore, adapting to new channels is the only way to "self-rescue."
4. Don't fear no sales, fear not grasping the new sales window period.
The sales window period squeezed by the epidemic is very short, but the explosive power is stronger.
5. After the epidemic ends, there will definitely be compensatory and revenge consumption.
People have been cooped up for too long and need an emotional outlet. So, revenge consumption may catch people off guard.
6. In the short term, there is a significant impact; in the medium term, the impact is not great; in the long term, it is an opportunity for upgrading.
In the short term, there is a significant impact (disrupting normal sales rhythm and structure); in the medium term, the impact is not great (compensatory consumption); in the long term, it is an opportunity for upgrading (cherishing life quality more).
7. The impact of the epidemic on business first affects retail, then distributors, and finally brand owners.
However, the self-rescue process must be reversed, with organized "self-rescue."

**-01- How big is the impact of the epidemic on business?**
All industries will be affected. I have two evaluation criteria:
> First, don't look at sales but consumption; as long as there is consumption, there will be sales. Shift consumption scenarios; Second, don't look at the present but after the epidemic; as long as there is compensatory consumption after the epidemic, the early losses can be recovered.

Let me first state the conclusion: Although there are hard-hit areas that are difficult to remedy, for most FMCG products, sales volume is not greatly affected, but it will affect the distribution of sales in different months of the first quarter. The biggest danger is cash flow disruption.

Panic has passed; we must correctly assess the impact of the epidemic on business. **The biggest dangers are: panic and cash flow.**

Let's talk about the hardest-hit areas first. Hard-hit does not mean the greatest sales impact, but that it is difficult to remedy. **There are three major hard-hit areas:**
**First, the service industry, such as catering, tourism, entertainment (except online games)**, and the upstream supply chain related to these.
**Second, short-shelf-life products, such as seafood, fruits, flowers, low-temperature dairy products**;
**Third, festive products that cannot shift scenarios**, such as some gifts that can be unboxed and converted to immediate consumption, but some gifts are only sold in specific gift scenarios.

Many Chinese products are gift-oriented, such as dairy products and some beverages, which sell more than normal because they can be used as gifts. But precisely because there is more gift-giving during the Spring Festival, the digestion period after the festival is longer.

**Most daily necessities are not greatly affected, and may even see slight growth.** For home consumption, daily necessities are always needed. This holiday period is at least 9 days longer than the Spring Festival holiday, so consumption is also greater than usual.

Although due to the epidemic, manufacturers and distributors have difficulty replenishing in the short term, overall inventory before the Spring Festival was relatively large, so short-term non-replenishment will not have a major impact. In fact, after the Spring Festival, most companies are in a period of exchange and adjustment. For example, because more people cook and eat at home for longer periods, condiment sales are definitely increasing (offsetting the decline in catering, though the variety and scale differ).

I judge that even with the epidemic, the amount of household replenishment after the Spring Festival this year will be larger than usual, making up for less gift-giving during the festival. Of course, pure gift scenarios will be more affected.

**-02- The epidemic promotes the "home delivery" model of new retail**
**Let me state the conclusion first:**
**If the epidemic is short, it affects sales volume and structure; if it is long, it creates new business models.**

Looking back. **Before the fifth day of the first lunar month, it was basically a panic period with panic buying, leaning toward pessimism.** The impact mainly affected industries that had built up momentum for the Spring Festival peak, such as catering, tourism, entertainment, and gifts.

**After the fifth day of the first lunar month, some began exploring new business models**, such as home delivery services. Many merchants discovered opportunities. Vegetables, being a necessity, became traffic-generating and product-driving items.

**After the tenth day of the first lunar month, supermarkets and households established new transaction models:** The bold went directly to supermarkets, but the average transaction value increased significantly; the cautious (or those in sealed communities) adopted three transaction modes: online orders, community group orders, and offline special scenario orders (such as ordering at the gatehouse). This basically ensured normal life and business operations.

At this point, the product mix shifted from vegetables to "vegetables + daily necessities."

We must firmly believe that the epidemic can be effectively controlled. But the duration of the epidemic has very different impacts on business. If the epidemic is short, say within a week, it will at most affect sales volume, such as panic buying; if it is long, it will affect life and consumption habits, giving birth to or maturing new consumption models. For example, home delivery services and community commerce only emerged a week after the Spring Festival. If it lasts longer, some special business models during the epidemic may solidify.

Additionally, we must assess the impact of measures taken during the epidemic on business. For example, if communities are sealed, only the "contactless home delivery" business model is possible, and some hard-hit areas have already done this. If communities are not sealed, direct shopping at supermarkets is possible.

Now, visiting relatives and friends and gathering entertainment are no longer allowed. Some areas have implemented designated people and quantities for shopping, and some communities are fully sealed. Different isolation measures have different impacts on business.

**-03- Organized "Self-Rescue"**
**Everyone is talking about "self-rescue" now, and retailers are the first "self-rescuers."** At present, brand owners cannot act (they cannot start work early), distributors can act to a limited extent (depending on the epidemic), urban retailers are acting, and rural areas may not be able to open yet.

**Unorganized "self-rescue" means retail stores independently rescuing themselves.** It seems that most are doing this now.

Organized "self-rescue" means brand owners organize distributors, and distributors organize retailers to "self-rescue." Once brand owners act, distributors and retailers respond in tandem. Although brand owners have not started work and personnel cannot reach the market, "remote work" for brand owners became a consensus on the fifth day of the first lunar month.

During a crisis, "self-rescue" is instinctive, and minimizing losses is the basic characteristic. **Organized "self-rescue" is no longer just about minimizing losses, but also about maximizing benefits.**

Before the tenth day of the first lunar month, the situation was unclear, and brand owners basically did not participate in the "self-rescue" of distributors and retailers. Now, the situation has basically become clear, and effective methods are gradually emerging. It depends on the organizational capability of enterprises at the critical moment.

**-04- Eight Opportunity Points and Window Periods for Self-Rescue**
**Effective self-rescue for retailers lies in discovering opportunity points and window periods.** If the time is not right, rescue is useless. If opportunity points are not discovered, rescue is blind.

**Opportunity windows are hard to predict, very short, and once missed, they won't come again.**

**Consumer sentiment is constantly changing.** For example, before the fifth day of the first lunar month, everyone was talking about the epidemic, and discussing business at that time was taboo.

The key to self-rescue is still to discover opportunities during the crisis, and as the epidemic changes, opportunities flash by. Start with retailer self-rescue.

The clue to self-rescue is also the key point: the main channel during the epidemic—contactless home delivery business. Because communities are sealed, home delivery has become the main channel.

It is essential to make distributors and retailers realize that home delivery is currently the main channel, and original channels are wholly or largely closed.

**Home delivery business: community new retail.**
**Three ordering methods: online orders, community group orders, offline orders (ordering at the gatehouse)**

**Opportunity Point 1:** Vegetables open up new channels—home delivery. Therefore, vegetables become traffic products. Supermarkets with vegetable supply chains may see higher sales than usual. Distributors should first capture these retailers. Liancai.com created a 89-yuan combined vegetable package, which is a good method to increase average transaction value and reduce selection time.

**Opportunity Point 2:** Vegetables drive daily necessities, then extend to other products. Before the tenth day, it was vegetables; after the tenth day, it is daily necessities; it is estimated that it will soon extend to other categories, such as gifts.

After the tenth day, most households will have a daily necessities replenishment period. Seize this opportunity, and the average transaction value will be relatively high. For example, create a daily necessities combination package.

**Opportunity Point 3:** If the epidemic eases, just before work resumes on February 9, it will be the Lantern Festival (January 15th in the lunar calendar), and there will be another peak for gift-giving. Although the epidemic affects visiting relatives and friends, alternative gift-giving is entirely possible, such as entrusting merchants to deliver gifts, contactless gift-giving.

**Opportunity Point 4:** After normal work resumes, there will definitely be a peak in household daily necessities replenishment. Due to the epidemic, household inventory of daily necessities may be lower than usual, so the replenishment volume should be relatively large.

**Opportunity Point 5:** Due to the epidemic, normal social activities, conferences, and exhibitions are canceled or postponed. About 20-30 days after the epidemic is lifted, there will be a peak.

**Opportunity Point 6:** The epidemic will affect the public's re-understanding of life quality, so after the epidemic ends, there may be consumption upgrading. However, some have proposed consumption downgrading after the epidemic, which I believe is not valid.

**Opportunity Point 7:** After the epidemic ends, the Spring Festival sales peak has been missed, especially for festive and gift products. If consumption scenarios can be shifted, efforts must be made in other scenarios, such as unboxing gifts for immediate consumption.

**Opportunity Point 8:** After the epidemic ends, there will be a round of revenge consumption. For example, gathering for celebrations will drive catering, entertainment, and upstream industries. Affected by the epidemic, everyone is cooped up at home, and after the epidemic, there will definitely be a round of relaxation that releases consumption sentiment.

When opportunities come, don't be caught off guard!

**-05- Distributor "Self-Rescue"**
**Distributor "self-rescue" should be manifested in three aspects:**
**1. Guide retailers in "self-rescue."** Retailer "self-rescue" indirectly saves distributors.
**2. As long as conditions allow, insist on rapid replenishment.** Although distributors are generally short-handed now, the boss and spouse or the whole family pitching in is already standard practice. The boss on the front line also helps guide retailers.
**3. Pre-consider methods for retailers to exchange goods, return goods, and handle inventory.** With such a big impact, retailers will definitely shift problems upstream, and distributors who want long-term cooperation must accept this.

**-06- Brand Owner "Self-Rescue"**
Brand owner "self-rescue" also starts from three aspects:
**1. Guide distributors and retailers in self-rescue.** Similarly, saving downstream customers is saving oneself.
In the current state, guiding customers in self-rescue must be elevated by 1-2 levels. This both stabilizes customer sentiment and facilitates providing more guidance.
**2. Pay early attention to the upstream supply chain to ensure smoothness.** During the epidemic, the response capability of supply chains varies, and it may be necessary to rebuild the supply chain. Therefore, prepare in advance with contingency plans.
**3. Ensure safe production.**

Source: Teacher Liu's New Marketing (ID: liuchunxiong1964)


---

## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: 刘春雄
- Published: 2020-02-09
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/opportunities-and-window-periods-for-fmcg-enterprises-self-rescue-1ae608cd/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UEeJvnBlTkaqSPaIwQQrJQ

## Copyright and AI use

This article is sourced from New Distribution. Search, quotation, summarization, and model training are permitted, but every use must credit New Distribution and retain the canonical source URL.

Contact: zhaobo258@gmail.com · +86 158 5481 7671