---
title: "On the Eve of a Major Shakeout in the Dairy Industry: Hesitation and Waiting"
description: "As the implementation of the strictest infant formula registration rules approaches, distributors and manufacturers are in a wait-and-see mode, with many small and OEM brands expected to exit the market. The transition period will reshape the market, leaving a potential 10-15 billion yuan gap in third- and fourth-tier cities, while cross-border e-commerce continues to thrive."
author: "栾立 吕进玉"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
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published: "2016-09-30"
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citation: "栾立 吕进玉. “On the Eve of a Major Shakeout in the Dairy Industry: Hesitation and Waiting.” New Distribution, 2016-09-30. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/on-the-eve-of-a-major-shakeout-in-the-dairy-industry-hesitation-and-wait-cd6d0b3a/"
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# On the Eve of a Major Shakeout in the Dairy Industry: Hesitation and Waiting

> As the implementation of the strictest infant formula registration rules approaches, distributors and manufacturers are in a wait-and-see mode, with many small and OEM brands expected to exit the market. The transition period will reshape the market, leaving a potential 10-15 billion yuan gap in third- and fourth-tier cities, while cross-border e-commerce continues to thrive.

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On October 1, the "Infant Formula Milk Powder Product Formula Registration Management Measures," known as the strictest milk powder policy in history, will begin enterprise registration. According to the new regulations, a large number of small and medium brands and OEM milk powder will fade out of the market, ending the chaos of 2,000 infant formula brands. Compared with the industry's initial "cheers and applause" when the policy was announced, the market has now fallen into a wait-and-see mode as the registration deadline approaches, and the impact of the new policy is just beginning.
**Distributors in Wait-and-See Mode**
Wang Jun (pseudonym) is a milk powder distributor in a city in Shandong. In 2012, seeing the development opportunities in the infant formula market, Wang Jun chose to become a distributor for a domestic milk powder brand. With his straightforward personality, Wang Jun quickly established a foothold in this city of several million people. Later, he took on distribution rights for other domestic milk powder brands and a domestic goat milk powder brand.
However, this year, Wang Jun suddenly contracted his business, not only cutting some cooperative brands but also accelerating the clearance of his goat milk powder inventory.
"Goat milk powder is being cleared out; we haven't restocked it," Wang Jun told Yicai. "The new policy hasn't been implemented yet, so sales are still ongoing, but promotions will be stronger, and we're trying to sell out as soon as possible."
In fact, promotions started in the second half of last year. In September 2015, after the new infant formula registration system policy was introduced, Wang Jun paid close attention. Due to the strong policy promotion, worried about whether his brands could pass registration, he began to gradually clear his inventory.
After such adjustments, Wang Jun only has one domestic milk powder brand left. For a city-level distributor, one brand seems a bit few.
Domestic infant formula business representatives, sensing the opportunity, have come knocking. In the past week alone, four business representatives visited Wang Jun to discuss cooperation. Three were from outsourcing brands under major domestic companies, and the other was from an Australian OEM milk powder brand.
The conditions offered by the factory representatives were simple: no fees or additional conditions, just a direct bottom-line price, with the retail pricing power handed over to Wang Jun.
These conditions are quite favorable, giving distributors a lot of freedom.
For example, for one medium-sized domestic milk powder brand, the factory's bottom price was 80-100 yuan per can, with a suggested retail price of 238 yuan. If only the bottom price is given, retailers can raise the retail price to 288 or 298 yuan, then attract consumers with high discounts like buy 2 get 1 free, or buy 1 get 1 free, a method that has proven effective. Even with buy 1 get 1 free, retailers still have relatively high profits and are more willing to sell.
However, Wang Jun still rejected these four companies. Although the factory salespeople kept promising that the brand would be retained, Wang Jun remained skeptical and took a wait-and-see attitude, after all, stocking up requires real money. He told reporters, "I do lack brands now, but I'm very cautious about taking on new brand agencies. Generally, I don't dare to take on small and medium brands, for fear that if they fail to pass registration later, I'll have to switch again."
**The Chaos of 2,000 Brands**
The reason for Wang Jun's concern and wait-and-see attitude is the "Infant Formula Milk Powder Product Formula Registration Management Measures" to be implemented on October 1. In the previously disclosed contents, this new policy, known as the strictest in history, imposes extremely strict requirements on the qualifications and R&D capabilities of enterprises applying for registration. The industry generally believes that the new policy will cause at least two-thirds of the more than 2,000 infant formula brands in China to disappear.
On April 24, 2015, the revised "Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China" first proposed that infant formula product formulas should be registered with the food and drug regulatory department of the State Council. When registering, a formula R&D report and other materials demonstrating the scientific and safe nature of the formula must be submitted. It is not allowed to produce infant formula by repackaging, and the same enterprise cannot use the same formula to produce different brands of infant formula.
On this basis, on September 4 of that year, the National Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) published the draft for comments. Subsequently, in March 2016, the final plan was approved and announced to be implemented on October 1 this year, which is also the time for enterprises to start registration. To leave a buffer period for the market, the new policy sets the registration deadline for existing products and brands as January 1, 2018.
As the strictest new policy, the formula registration system clearly covers all infant formula products produced and sold domestically, also bringing overseas brands sold in China under supervision.
At the same time, the CFDA requires that milk powder enterprises submitting registration must have corresponding R&D, production, and inspection capabilities, excluding trading-type OEM brands from the registration scope.
The most core aspect is the first-time restriction on the number of formulas per enterprise. A milk powder production license can, in principle, have the qualification to apply for 3 series and 9 formulas. However, this does not mean every enterprise can obtain 3 product series; small and medium enterprises lacking R&D capabilities may not get even one.
In the view of the CFDA, China's infant formula market has large demand and rapid industry development, but the development time is short. Currently, China's 103 infant formula production enterprises have a total of 2,000 formulas, with some enterprises having as many as 180 formulas. The problems of too many and excessive formulas, arbitrary formula formulation, and frequent changes are prominent, posing certain quality and safety risks and causing consumer choice difficulties.
On August 13, 2016, the CFDA again published the draft implementation rules for the new policy. To pass the registration system, enterprises need to submit 10 application materials, which impose strict requirements on milk powder formulas, including providing product formula R&D reports, breast milk research, sufficient evidence of scientific and safe nature, and long-term evaluation data from products on the market for more than 5 years.
This implementation rule is considered to further raise the threshold for formula registration, completely eliminating small and medium brands and OEM brands, thus ending the chaos of more than 2,000 brands.
**Anxious Milk Powder Enterprises**
Distributors are not the only ones in wait-and-see mode. Although October 1 is imminent, the final version of the implementation rules, which began soliciting opinions in August, has not yet been published. The previous draft of the new policy underwent significant adjustments, which means there are still many uncertainties in the registration work. Reporters learned from multiple milk powder manufacturers, including Biostime, Feihe, Synutra, Mead Johnson, and Danone, that enterprises are also waiting and watching.
Although the rules are not yet finalized, in fact, enterprises are preparing in advance. At the Sino-French Dairy Technology Exchange held on September 21, Biostime Group CTO Pctrice Malard told Yicai that Biostime's milk powder formula registration work has already begun and has received preliminary approval from the authorities, but final approval has not yet been obtained. He did not disclose what materials were submitted or the specific timeline. However, he said that the authorities also suggested that Biostime further improve the content in formula research and formula composition, and the company is stepping up this work, hoping to get it done soon.
Dairy marketing expert Lei Yongjun told reporters: Theoretically, whichever company registers its brand and formula first will gain an advantage in future competition, but when approval will come and what the result will be is a torturous process for enterprises.
Reporters learned that the most worrying issue for milk powder enterprises is how many formula series they can obtain, which is also related to their next development strategy.
Pctrice Malard said that Biostime is most concerned about this issue. In 2013, Biostime strategically cooperated with French dairy producer IsignySainteMère, investing 65 million euros to build a new factory. According to the list published by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) in 2014, Biostime has two brands with multiple series produced at the French factory.
In fact, Biostime's product series are not many. According to the enterprise list published by the CFDA, most domestic infant formula enterprises face the problem of excessive formula numbers, with some having hundreds and others at least a dozen. According to the new policy, only a very few of these brands can be retained.
Among the list, Synutra International has the most formulas, with 184 formulas across more than 50 brand series. Zhang Liang, President of Synutra International, said in an interview with Yicai: The company has already arranged the specific brand selection in advance. When asked how many brands the company will retain, Zhang Liang said: "Just follow the national policy; register as many as the state allows."
Currently, Synutra has two factories in France and China, and two more are under construction. According to the new policy, before the new factories pass filing, the maximum number of brand series that can be retained is 6, which is only 10% of Synutra's previous total brand count. In this regard, Zhang Liang said that although the number of brands cut at this stage is large, most of these brands are small in scale and have little impact on the company's revenue. Cutting these brands is also to take advantage of the new policy to abandon the previous multi-brand model and make major strategic adjustments to the existing milk powder brand system.
Zhang Liang told reporters: "It's not about superimposing the market of the cut brands onto the remaining brands, but rather hoping to use the products from the new French factory to re-compete for the domestic market with other brands."
Although the strategic adjustment is beneficial to Synutra in the long run, in the short term, such a large-scale change in its brands will inevitably bring some pain to Synutra.
In fact, most domestic milk powder enterprises will face the pain of brand selection. Due to concerns about causing distributor panic, some enterprises chose to avoid answering reporters' questions.
Compared with the dilemma of domestic enterprises, imported brands are relatively calm because the registration system has less impact on them. Mead Johnson and Danone both responded that they will follow the final "Infant Formula Milk Powder Product Formula Registration Management Measures" and its implementation rules, strictly abide by national laws and regulations, and cooperate with the implementation and execution of policies.
It is worth noting that due to the unclear "scale" of the new policy, many small and medium domestic milk powder brands are facing decision-making difficulties.
Lei Yongjun told reporters that currently more than 50% of domestic infant formula production enterprises have difficulties in formulating business strategies. According to the new policy, it is unknown how many formula series small and medium domestic milk powder enterprises can obtain. "To build a milk powder brand, market, personnel, and raw material investments need to be prepared in advance. A complete plan costs tens of millions of yuan. What if you apply for 2 or 3 series but only 1 is approved?"
Reporters learned that a typical milk powder enterprise with annual sales of 200 million yuan generally has a profit margin of about 10%, which means that if a decision error occurs, such a loss may be unbearable for small and medium enterprises. Some small and medium enterprises may reduce the number of formulas they apply for, or even apply for only 1 series.
Previously, the industry expected that 2,000 infant formula brands in China would be eliminated by two-thirds. As a result, the number of brands that may remain could be even less than expected.
**Long Transition Period and a 10-Billion-Yuan Market**
Previously, the industry generally believed that with the exit of small and medium brands and foreign OEM brands, a huge market space of 10-15 billion yuan would be left in third- and fourth-tier markets, which would be divided among major domestic milk powder enterprises, leading to widespread optimism.
In fact, with the announcement of the new policy, small and medium brands and OEM products have chosen to cut prices to clear inventory, which instead led to a collective decline in the performance of several major domestic milk powder enterprises in the first half of the year. Among them, Beingmate's sales revenue fell by 23.23% year-on-year, with a net loss of 214 million yuan, a decrease of 108.07%; Yashili's sales revenue fell by 21.7%, and gross profit fell by 19.6%; Yili's milk powder and dairy product sales revenue fell by 24.05% year-on-year; Biostime's sales revenue fell by 14%.
Regarding the reasons for the decline, Beingmate believes the impact is on two levels: on the one hand, after the new policy was issued, milk powder enterprises with many brands and a batch of small brand factories without R&D capabilities concentrated on selling products at low prices in the market, causing a significant decline in sales for many milk powder enterprises, including Beingmate. At the same time, in order to compete with small brands on price, the company had to increase terminal promotions, which also led to a decline in profitability.
It is expected that this situation will continue. Dairy analyst Song Liang told Yicai that October 1 is only the beginning of enterprise registration. Before the deadline of January 1, 2018, products that have not passed formula registration can still be sold. This stage is a policy transition period, which means the changes brought by the new policy are just beginning to show.
Zhang Liang told Yicai that according to the enterprise's understanding, strictly speaking, milk powder produced before December 31, 2017 should be sellable, plus a normal shelf life of 1 year, and the transition period is expected to end in December 2018. For brands that may not complete registration, there are still 2 years.
He predicted that manufacturers and channels all need to make money. After the registration system begins, production enterprises will continue to produce, and sales channels will continue to sell. Some channel enterprises may make longer-term plans, gradually replacing unregistered brands with registered ones, but there will certainly be a considerable number of retailers who will hold on until the end.
Lei Yongjun believes that as small and medium brands reduce their brand systems during the transition period, distributors will also gradually adjust their product structures. In the process of mutual infiltration and transformation, it will bring a market scale of 10 billion yuan. Despite having more reliable quality and brand advantages, it does not mean that major domestic milk powder brands can easily seize this market.
In third- and fourth-tier markets, maternal and child channels account for about 50% of market share, supermarket channels account for 20%, and the remaining 30% is occupied by online channels. This market structure determines that third- and fourth-tier markets have a distribution system value chain different from first- and second-tier markets.
In fact, in third- and fourth-tier markets, major domestic milk powder brands, especially first-line brands, are not welcomed by channel operators. Wang Jun told reporters that although small and medium brands are difficult to sell, they are profit products in the channel, while domestic major brands and foreign brands are called "currency" in the industry, with almost no profit, only earning 10 to 20 yuan per can.
Mr. Li, owner of Nantong Haomama chain maternal and child franchise store, told Yicai that the store currently mainly sells imported and domestic major brand milk powder, but overall profit is not high, only about 10%, usually used to attract traffic and retain customers.
Wang Jun calculated an account for reporters: As a regional distributor, the monthly turnover of a major brand may exceed 3 million yuan, but the profit is only 4% to 5%, and it requires supporting several salespeople and delivery vehicles, with high costs. Because the channel has credit periods, it also requires an additional 4 million yuan in working capital for one and a half months, which is very uneconomical. "Especially for domestic and foreign first-line brands, doing their agency business is like being a porter; it's meaningless."
Previously, third-tier markets have always been the base for domestic brands of all sizes. With the registration system causing small and medium brands to exit, if domestic large and medium enterprises can keep up quickly, domestic brands will become the biggest beneficiaries.
In Lei Yongjun's view, most large enterprises subjectively believe that after the registration system, the sharpness and aggressiveness of small enterprises will disappear, and large enterprises will inevitably gain opportunities. However, some enterprises' current sales policies are detached from the reality of third- and fourth-tier markets, and such policies are actually harming the existing distribution system value chain. Due to the lack of profit incentives, channels are unwilling to choose them as the first option.
Yan Ming, owner of a maternal and child store in Zibo, Shandong, told reporters that a certain well-known domestic milk powder brand has a high pricing itself, and the distributor's purchase policy is 85% of the retail price, with few promotional policies. Domestic milk powder is not as easy to sell as foreign brands, and such a high price makes it almost impossible for him to run promotions, so he had to give it up.
It is worth noting that although the new policy will significantly reduce the number of infant formula brands, some small and medium brands will still survive through registration. In the future, these surviving small and medium brands may once again be sought after by channels, leading to a situation where they compete with major domestic milk powder enterprises for food.
**Cross-Border E-Commerce Continues to Surge**
Under the new policy, not all milk powder channels are frowning. Compared with the strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic market, cross-border e-commerce channels continue to surge.
At the end of this month, while domestic brands are still studying brand selection issues, international dairy giant Danone announced the opening of another official flagship store on Tmall Global to sell Hong Kong version Cow & Gate infant formula, which is also Danone's second cross-border e-commerce milk powder flagship store. Previously, Danone sold Nutrilon and Aptamil imported through formal trade channels in China; in 2015, Danone announced the introduction of Dutch Nutrilon, New Zealand and German Aptamil to Tmall Global for sale.
Under normal circumstances, products imported through formal trade channels have higher costs, and cross-border e-commerce products are cheaper than domestic versions. Introducing overseas versions may adversely affect domestic sales, but Danone seems unconcerned, responding that it will further expand Cow & Gate's sales channels.
Although Danone did not disclose sales data for domestic and cross-border e-commerce, on maternal and child cross-border e-commerce websites like Mibabao, overseas versions of Aptamil and Nutrilon are already hot standard products. Danone's official opening of two stores may indirectly indicate the huge demand from domestic consumers for its overseas versions, making it impossible for Danone to ignore this market.
Wang Huiying, Deputy Director of Public Relations at Danone, told reporters that cross-border e-commerce is an important channel, loved by mothers, and convenient for enterprises to provide more choices for consumers in mainland China.
In fact, besides Danone, major foreign brands including Wyeth, Abbott, and Mead Johnson have also opened official overseas flagship stores to sell overseas versions of domestic products, and even some domestic brands with overseas factories have entered the domestic market through cross-border e-commerce.
Song Liang told Yicai that the biggest advantage of cross-border e-commerce is that it meets consumers' demand for food safety, followed by lower prices than domestic versions. Currently, cross-border e-commerce channels are growing rapidly, almost penetrating the domestic 1-4 tier markets in just two years.
Data from the Dairy Association shows that in 2015, 180,000 tons of infant formula entered China through formal trade channels, a year-on-year increase of 45%. It is estimated that the total amount of infant formula entering China through unconventional channels such as cross-border e-commerce also exceeded 100,000 tons, with a scale of about 10 billion yuan, while the total annual consumption of infant formula in China is about 700,000 tons. In the first half of this year, about 57,000 tons of infant formula entered China through cross-border e-commerce, with no slowdown in growth.
On April 8 this year, the new cross-border e-commerce policy was implemented. In the regulatory rules of the "Cross-Border E-Commerce Retail Import Commodity List" (hereinafter referred to as the "Positive List"), a threshold was set for formula milk powder: it must be registered in accordance with the "Food Safety Law," except for unregistered infant formula.
Reporters learned that within a few days of the "April 8" new policy for cross-border e-commerce, due to requirements for milk powder to have filing and commodity customs clearance documents, a large amount of milk powder entering China in bonded form was backlogged, and most imported formula milk powder could neither be returned nor sold, triggering a strong reaction from cross-border e-commerce. On April 13, the Tariff Department of the Ministry of Finance added supplementary explanations to the Positive List, stating that since the "Infant Formula Milk Powder Product Formula Registration Management Measures" is still being formulated, cross-border e-commerce retail imports of infant formula do not currently need to obtain the product formula registration certificate.
According to the explanation issued by the Tariff Department of the Ministry of Finance, this exemption period is until January 1, 2018, which means that after the exemption, infant formula sold in China, including infant formula imported through cross-border e-commerce retail, must legally obtain the product formula registration certificate, otherwise it must be removed from shelves.
However, cross-border e-commerce enterprises are optimistic about this. Shao Xiaobo, Vice President of Babytree, told Yicai: "This milk powder new policy has little impact on the company. Major brands are expected to register, and secondly, cross-border e-commerce imported milk powder will not be clearly regulated until after the transition period."
Perhaps cross-border e-commerce companies have already figured out a way out. Song Liang told reporters that after the deadline, other cross-border e-commerce channels will be brought under supervision, but the daigou (personal shopping) and overseas direct purchase models are personal consumer behaviors and will not be affected. It is expected that overseas versions of milk powder may shift to cross-border direct purchase mode, where enterprises transport goods to countries or regions near China, and enter China through online purchases and overseas direct mail.
Reporters learned that overseas direct mail and cross-border e-commerce bonded policies are different. According to the "General Administration of Customs Announcement No. 43 of 2010," direct mail items have value limits, with the amount not exceeding 1,000 yuan; at the same time, the direct mail model may face issues such as "being taxed," extended time, and increased logistics costs, but for smart domestic consumers who trust overseas shopping, this is believed not to be a big problem.
**Domestic Milk Powder Industry Faces the Hardest Time in 20 Years**
Under the new policy, the entire domestic milk powder industry will move forward amid adjustment. In Song Liang's view, this may be the most difficult moment for the domestic milk powder industry in 20 years, facing such major adjustments, insufficient consumer confidence, and chaotic industry prices. The blame for this situation cannot be placed on others.
Reporters learned that the multi-brand era of Chinese milk powder came after the 2008 melamine incident. According to Lei Yongjun's statistics, in 2007, there were fewer than 150 brands in the Chinese market, but now, including domestic and online brands, there may be as many as 3,000.
In Song Liang's view, the reasons for the current situation have both inevitability and contingency.
Before 2008, the average price of infant formula was 150 yuan per can. After the 2008 melamine incident, in order to rebuild consumer trust, domestic enterprises extensively used imported raw materials or imported whole cans, and milk powder prices rose significantly to 250 yuan per can. Since then, milk powder prices have continued to rise, with a large number of products above 300 yuan emerging. As milk powder prices rose, the industry brought higher gross margins, attracting a large amount of capital, leading to a surge in the number of brands.
In fact, at that time, the reputation of domestic milk powder was greatly damaged, and consumers did not trust domestic brands. Domestic milk powder enterprises had to adopt a multi-brand model, using information asymmetry between channels to survive.
China has a vast territory, with significant differences between east, west, north, south, urban, and rural areas, so diversified products are also needed, which has become a prerequisite for the survival of many small brands. On the other hand, the diversification and differentiation of channels, especially the rise of the internet and maternal and child channels, also provided living space for small and medium brands and OEM brands.
Song Liang believes that the new policy is just beginning. In the coming year, there will still be some chaos in the industry, but with the implementation of the new policy, it will eventually eliminate chaos, shifting future milk powder competition to a more concentrated focus on comprehensive strengths such as product R&D, resource control, continuous process upgrading, brand communication sustainability, and refined consumer services and influence.
But that's one aspect. In Song Liang's view, the biggest problem the domestic milk powder industry needs to solve now is consumers' distrust or even abandonment of domestic brands, as well as their blind trust in foreign brands in the market.
According to figures published by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ), as of December 24, 2014, there were 204 overseas infant formula production enterprises registered with AQSIQ, and including OEM brands, there were only 255 registered brands. However, in the domestic market, among the infant formula brands sold, in order to cater to consumers' demand for imported products, there are no fewer than a thousand brands labeled as imported or with imported milk sources, while only a few hundred enterprises are labeled as domestic, showing a one-sided market situation.
But conversely, in third- and fourth-tier markets, these fake foreign brands and domestic major brands fought side by side, resisting the impact of foreign brands and cross-border e-commerce. After the new policy, with their exit, the question of who will own the remaining market space leaves little time for the domestic milk powder industry to think and act.
**Source: Yicai Daily (ID: yicairibao)**
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## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: 栾立 吕进玉
- Published: 2016-09-30
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/on-the-eve-of-a-major-shakeout-in-the-dairy-industry-hesitation-and-wait-cd6d0b3a/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3a17dK4PioYtTD18Z0Kgyg

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