---
title: "Low-Temperature Probiotic Drinks Cool Down: Is Low-Sugar the Way Out?"
description: "After a boom following 2010, low-temperature probiotic drinks are now cooling down due to competition from yogurt and ambient probiotic drinks. Data shows that per-household purchases of low-temperature probiotic drinks in 2015 fell to near 2011 levels, prompting brands to introduce low-sugar versions to revive the market."
author: "栾立"
publisher: "New Distribution"
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published: "2016-08-30"
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# Low-Temperature Probiotic Drinks Cool Down: Is Low-Sugar the Way Out?

> After a boom following 2010, low-temperature probiotic drinks are now cooling down due to competition from yogurt and ambient probiotic drinks. Data shows that per-household purchases of low-temperature probiotic drinks in 2015 fell to near 2011 levels, prompting brands to introduce low-sugar versions to revive the market.

After 2010, as consumers became increasingly concerned about healthy eating, low-temperature probiotic drinks, which tout beneficial live bacteria, quickly became popular. Reporters have learned that these drinks are now gradually cooling down after a period of explosive growth.
Low-temperature probiotic drinks are showing signs of fatigue after a boom. Yicai reporters learned that under the combined pressure of yogurt and ambient probiotic drinks, the low-temperature probiotic drink market is gradually cooling. Survey data shows that in 2015, per-household purchases of low-temperature probiotic drinks fell to near 2011 levels.
Low-temperature probiotics bid farewell to high growth
Since 2010, with growing consumer focus on healthy diets, low-temperature probiotic drinks, which emphasize beneficial live bacteria and gut health, have rapidly gained popularity. Major domestic dairy companies including Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK), Yili (600887.SH), and Junlebao have launched low-temperature probiotic drink products, and in supermarkets and convenience store coolers across major cities, various sizes and multi-packs of these drinks quickly occupied prime positions. Reports show that in 2015, the entire probiotic drink market had sales of 10.981 billion yuan, with low-temperature probiotics accounting for about 7.846 billion yuan. Yakult, Wei Chuan, and Mengniu held the top three positions in the low-temperature probiotic market.
Yicai reporters learned that the previously high-growth low-temperature probiotic drink market is now facing decline. Mengniu Dairy's 2016 interim report showed that in the first half of the year, the company grew against the trend with revenue of 27.3 billion yuan, up 6.6%, but its dairy beverage segment saw a decline, with revenue of 4.9 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year.
Ji Xiaodong, public relations director at Mengniu Dairy, told Yicai reporters that the decline in the company's dairy beverage segment was mainly due to the impact on low-temperature probiotic drink sales.
Announcements show that low-temperature probiotic drinks have always been one of Mengniu's key products. Starting in 2011, Mengniu promoted its low-temperature probiotic drink Youyi C, and in 2012, sales of Youyi C grew significantly. Subsequently, Mengniu's dairy beverage segment grew rapidly, from 8 billion yuan in 2012, up 30% to 10.4 billion yuan in 2013; in 2014, dairy beverage revenue continued to grow to 11.9 billion yuan. However, from 2015, the segment's performance began to decline, with revenue falling to 10.4 billion yuan, and the decline did not narrow in the first half of this year.
Notably, at the 11th International Symposium on Lactic Acid Bacteria and Health held in June this year, Wei Chuan also revealed to the media that due to industry reasons, its low-temperature probiotic drink business faced negative growth this year.
According to a recent survey by Kantar Worldpanel, after continuous double-digit growth from 2011 to 2014, sales of low-temperature probiotic drinks in cities began to decline in 2015, with sales down 2% from the previous year. The decline was due to a continuous drop in per-household purchases, which fell to 4.4 liters in 2015, close to 2011 levels, marking the first year-on-year decline since 2011.
Yakult, in its response to Yicai reporters, remained optimistic, stating that the low-temperature probiotic industry has not declined. Chinese consumers' expectations for health are continuously rising. In the long run, the low-temperature probiotic drink industry will maintain a steady development trend. In 2015, Yakult's offline sales market share in the East China region for probiotic drinks was 37.6%.
Squeezed by ambient products and yogurt
Regarding the cooling of low-temperature probiotic products, Ji Xiaodong told Yicai reporters that it is mainly due to the impact of ambient probiotic drinks on low-temperature products. Although both have their own characteristics, ambient probiotic drinks are easier to store and transport, giving them an advantage. The company has made adjustments based on market conditions.
Reporters learned that there are two types of probiotic drinks currently on the market: one is active probiotic drinks, which are low-temperature products, and the other is non-active probiotic drinks, which are ambient products. The difference is that low-temperature probiotic drinks must contain no less than 1 million live lactic acid bacteria per milliliter, while ambient products are sterilized by heating and do not contain live bacteria. The industry generally believes that low-temperature products have higher nutritional value, but in market competition, ambient products have left low-temperature products behind.
The Kantar Worldpanel report shows that key and provincial capital cities account for 51% of total sales of low-temperature probiotic drinks, while sales in broader prefecture-level and county-level markets are mediocre. In contrast, 85% of ambient probiotic drink sales are completed in prefecture-level and below markets.
Zhu Danpeng, a food expert at the China Brand Research Institute, told Yicai reporters that low-temperature probiotic drinks are stronger in first- and second-tier markets but face more competitors in third- and fourth-tier markets. Low-temperature probiotic drinks are losing to ambient products mainly because, on one hand, consumers have limited awareness of low-temperature versus ambient probiotic products and cannot distinguish between them; on the other hand, low-temperature probiotic drinks require cold chain for transportation and display, which limits their market penetration and development. With any slight oversight, the market can be captured by ambient products. In addition, Chinese drinking habits tend toward ambient temperature, and ambient products are more storable and cost-effective, making them more favored by consumers and distributors.
Although there are no authoritative statistics on the sales growth of the ambient probiotic drink market, the continuous entry of various brands may offer some clues.
Yicai reporters learned that before 2014, the ambient brands on the market were mostly existing ones like Wahaha, Xile, Youleduo, and Junyao's Weidongli. From 2014 to 2015, food companies such as Haocaitou, Heiniu Food (002387.SZ), and Huahuaniu also announced the launch of ambient probiotic drink products. By 2015 to 2016, first-tier companies like Wei Chuan, Yili, and Mengniu, which originally focused on low-temperature products, also joined the ambient market competition.
Xiang Jianjun, a food industry researcher at CIC Consulting, believes that because ambient probiotics have lower channel requirements, their distribution speed and market penetration are much higher than low-temperature probiotics. The ambient probiotic market also has greater brand richness and product diversity than low-temperature products.
Furthermore, Zhu Danpeng stated that beverages compete across three dimensions: category, brand, and product. In the first half of this year, major domestic dairy companies saw high growth in yogurt sales. Since yogurt and low-temperature probiotic drinks are both low-temperature products, yogurt has taken away significant market share. In comparison, yogurt is more satiating and can serve as a meal replacement, making it more popular.
Can low-sugar versions turn things around?
In fact, besides competition from ambient probiotics and yogurt, the sugar content of low-temperature probiotic drinks has also been a concern. Since 2014, articles criticizing the high sugar content of low-temperature probiotic drinks have circulated widely on the internet, claiming that excessive consumption can lead to sugar overconsumption. Media reports have stated that a 400ml bottle of a certain brand of low-temperature probiotic drink contains as much sugar as ten sugar cubes, far exceeding the World Health Organization's recommended daily limit of 25 grams.
Beverage expert Chen Wei told Yicai reporters that dairy beverages have always been characterized by good taste due to added sugar to improve flavor, but Chinese consumers were previously unaware of this. As domestic consumers increasingly pay attention to dietary health, especially in first- and second-tier cities, the market has naturally been affected, which may be another reason for the cooling of low-temperature probiotic drinks.
In fact, dairy companies are already trying to address this issue.
From 2015 to 2016, brands such as Yakult, Wei Chuan, Mengniu, and Yili launched low-sugar versions with sugar reduced by 40% to 70% to meet consumer demand. Reporters saw in multiple supermarkets in Beijing that low-sugar and regular versions are displayed in a 1:1 ratio. On the packaging of one brand's low-sugar product, unlike previous nutrition labels that only listed carbohydrate content, sugar content is now specifically indicated. According to the "Food Nutrition Labeling Management Standards," products with sugar content less than 5g/100ml are considered low-sugar products.
Zhu Danpeng believes that in China, many consumers have incorporated sugar intake management into their overall health management, so low-sugar is also a current consumption trend. Both the dairy and beverage industries are moving toward low-sugar directions.
Regarding the market prospects for low-sugar products, Yakult responded that both original and low-sugar product consumer groups are growing, but did not disclose specific growth rates.
Whether low-sugar versions can bring about a market turnaround, the experts above said it is still hard to say. Low-sugar products will certainly help market recovery, but the specific effects remain to be seen.
Source: Yicai
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