---
title: "Is the 2025 Beverage Market 'Cold'? Three Distributors Have Their Say"
description: "As 2025 approaches June, the beverage industry has not seen the expected 'golden season.' Despite the Chinese beverage market surpassing 1.2 trillion yuan and rapid growth in subcategories like sugar-free tea and functional drinks, distributor anxiety is spreading. A survey by the author across multiple markets found one beverage distributor saying, 'From April, it was clear this year's beverage market wouldn't be very prosperous; even as terminals start stocking up for the peak season, overall beverage ex-factory prices remain low.' A distributor from South China said, 'Product prices are too competitive now; it's hard to make money.' Some distributors even report a 30% year-on-year decline in local beverage sales this summer, with inventory piling up to thousands of cases, and price wars driving wholesale prices below cost."
author: "擎苍"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2025-06-07"
categories: "Consumer & Categories, Dealer Operations"
language: "en"
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original_source: "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UlMAbYeyoKUA48c_931xjQ"
translation: "https://xinjignxiao.com/zh/articles/2025%E5%B9%B4%E9%A5%AE%E6%96%99%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA-%E5%86%B7%E4%B8%8D%E5%86%B7-%E4%B8%89%E5%90%8D%E7%BB%8F%E9%94%80%E5%95%86%E6%9C%89%E8%AF%9D%E8%AF%B4-c903a020.md"
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citation: "擎苍. “Is the 2025 Beverage Market 'Cold'? Three Distributors Have Their Say.” New Distribution, 2025-06-07. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/is-the-2025-beverage-market-cold-three-distributors-have-their-say-c903a020/"
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---

# Is the 2025 Beverage Market 'Cold'? Three Distributors Have Their Say

> As 2025 approaches June, the beverage industry has not seen the expected 'golden season.' Despite the Chinese beverage market surpassing 1.2 trillion yuan and rapid growth in subcategories like sugar-free tea and functional drinks, distributor anxiety is spreading. A survey by the author across multiple markets found one beverage distributor saying, 'From April, it was clear this year's beverage market wouldn't be very prosperous; even as terminals start stocking up for the peak season, overall beverage ex-factory prices remain low.' A distributor from South China said, 'Product prices are too competitive now; it's hard to make money.' Some distributors even report a 30% year-on-year decline in local beverage sales this summer, with inventory piling up to thousands of cases, and price wars driving wholesale prices below cost.

**Source** | Pin Yin Hui Observation

As 2025 approaches June, the beverage industry has not seen the expected 'golden season.' Despite the Chinese beverage market surpassing 1.2 trillion yuan and rapid growth in subcategories like sugar-free tea and functional drinks, distributor anxiety is spreading.

According to the author's survey across multiple markets, one beverage distributor said, 'From April, it was clear this year's beverage market wouldn't be very prosperous; even as terminals start stocking up for the peak season, overall beverage ex-factory prices remain low.'

A distributor from South China said, 'Product prices are too competitive now; it's hard to make money.'

Some distributors even report that 'local beverage sales have dropped 30% year-on-year this summer, with inventory piling up to over a thousand cases, and market price wars have driven wholesale prices below cost...'

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @玩乐库的小范

Meanwhile, the diversion of new channels is adding insult to injury for distributors. E-commerce and community group buying intercept consumers with low prices, while snack food chain stores bypass distributors for direct procurement, leaving traditional channels squeezed by 'upstream pressure to stock up and downstream difficulty in moving goods.' Behind the 'prosperous season not being prosperous' lies the multiple dilemmas of evolving consumer demand, channel restructuring, and rising costs.

So, what surprises and troubles do beverage distributors, who play a crucial 'connecting link' role in the market, face in the summer of 2025? The author selected three distributors' personal cases to observe the new normal of the current market 'through a small hole.' (Note: Names are pseudonyms at the request of the interviewees.)

**Henan Distributor He Tao:**
**The Difficult Game Between First-Tier Brands and New Brands**

He Tao, who runs a beverage business in Henan, was one of the earliest local agents deeply tied to a first-tier functional beverage brand, Brand D. His team manages over 2,000 terminal outlets in the urban and county areas, with annual revenue stable at around tens of millions of yuan.

However, this year, the regional manager of Brand D increased the stocking target from 500,000 cases per month to 700,000 cases, and He Tao's warehouse is piled with soon-to-expire products. 'The contract states 'quarterly rebates,' but if we don't meet the targets, the rebate is halved,' he said with a bitter smile.

'High capital occupation, low profits, and many manufacturer tricks'—this is almost the general perception distributors have of first-tier brands. Basically, representing a first-tier brand requires at least 500,000 yuan in working capital during the off-season, and over a million during the peak season.

Therefore, He Tao's operational core has always been 'fast turnover' to ensure the safe flow of funds. He requires salespeople to complete restocking at 30 outlets daily and uses a digital system to monitor inventory turnover days in real time. 'Products past half their shelf life must be cleared at discounted prices within a week, even at a loss.'

He Tao calculated: Brand D's products cost 65 yuan per case; if they become soon-to-expire, they can only be sold at 45 yuan, losing 20 yuan per case. To hedge risks, he tried introducing a new brand of corn juice drink, with the manufacturer promising 'a 20% bonus of goods for the first order of 100,000 yuan.'

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @小红薯67383BC0

However, just two months after distribution, the manufacturer ran away due to a broken capital chain, leaving over 100,000 bottles of corn juice as waste.

He Tao said helplessly, 'Just handling this batch of goods lost me hundreds of thousands, and I lost the trust of over a dozen terminal customers.'

Clearly, this is the product selection dilemma many first-tier brand distributors face between first-tier and new brands—as the market declines, operating costs rise, profit margins shrink, and many distributors can no longer bear the heavy sales tasks imposed by first-tier manufacturers, who continue to pressure relentlessly...

If they rely on new brands, they face many uncertainties: at best, products don't sell well and service lags; at worst, they 'lose both the bait and the fish.' As many distributors say, 'If a big brand's products don't sell well, at least you can flexibly dispose of them for some cash recovery, but if small brands don't sell, you just have to tough it out...'

Therefore, in response to the current market environment and changes, He Tao has summarized a '4-3-3' product portfolio model: 40% of funds for core brand stocking, 30% for testing high-margin new products, and the remaining 30% as risk reserve.

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @小红薯67383BC0

'First-tier brands are the foundation, but to survive, we must rely on the profits from new products to fill the gap,' He Tao told the author. In the new market cycle, how distributors select and combine products has become the key to sustainable development.

**Hebei Distributor Wang Bing:**
**'No Sense of Security,' Lost in Change**

Wang Bing, a Hebei distributor who has worked in traditional channels for ten years, once believed community group buying was the 'lifeline' for traditional distributors to break through.

In 2023, he formed a 10-person ground promotion team and signed an exclusive agreement with a community group buying platform, promising to sell 50,000 cases of a certain beverage brand monthly. The platform required him to supply at a 10% discount below wholesale price and bear a certain proportion of freight costs.

At that time, there was still a lot of floating stock in the market. Wang Bing, leveraging his accumulated channel resources, found some cheap soon-to-expire products and could make a small profit by reselling them.

'At first, it seemed good—fast turnover, no payment delays from the platform, and occasional subsidies, but gradually it became harder and harder,' Wang Bing found. He discovered that the platform's traffic was gradually being eroded by Pinduoduo and Meituan Youxuan, 'sales dropped from 50,000 cases per month to less than 10,000 cases.'

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @小红薯67383BC0

What worried him most was that due to the product selection characteristics of community group buying, 'I became like a 'junk king,' collecting goods wherever they were, and my whole work rhythm was consumed by finding goods and arranging transport.' Wang Bing said that after the initial windfall period, the competition and price wars among platforms left them gasping for air.

'During that time, I sometimes felt no sense of security,' Wang Bing told the author. Because most of the goods for discount and community channels were not managed by manufacturers, suppliers relied on 'information asymmetry.' Simply put, you must find demand first, then source goods, not the other way around.

Once competition became fierce, suppliers had to bear the pressure alone.

Additionally, the low prices of community group buying disrupted the price system of traditional channels. As a result, Wang Bing offended several previously familiar customers.

Helpless, Wang Bing cut off the community group buying business at the end of last year and retreated to surrounding counties. He also reduced his team to five people, focusing on the rigid demand market in townships.

To improve gross margins, he gave up some 'price-transparent' single products and instead represented regional functional drinks and beverages for the catering channel. He also set up 'forward warehouses' in townships, renting residential houses to store goods, with salespeople replenishing daily on tricycles. This summer, his township outlets expanded from 300 to 500, and monthly sales recovered to 30,000 cases.

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @饮料批发

'In the current situation, rather than competing on price with big platforms, it's better to root in the sinking market and make slow money,' Wang Bing sighed.

**Hubei Distributor Ma Jin:**
**The Quiet Exit of a KA Major**

Ma Jin, a KA distributor in Hubei for 30 years, was once a first-level distributor for over a dozen first-tier brands more than a decade ago, doing thriving business in the local market.

But after drastic changes in the consumer and retail ends, KA hypermarkets, once a main channel for beverages, are now becoming 'yesterday's flowers.'

'Carrefour collapsed a few years ago, our cooperation with the Walmart system stopped two years ago, last year the local Wubai system also reduced volume, and this year Yonghui is also planning to stop,' Ma Jin lamented. The market has changed so fast in recent years, giving a feeling of 'times have changed.'

The reason Ma Jin stopped cooperating with large systems is simple: 'Fewer young people visit big supermarkets; KA has no sales.'

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @成都瓶装水 桶装水批发

At the same time, systems like Yonghui are actively adjusting, even proposing a 'naked procurement' model this year to enhance price competitiveness by compressing distribution costs, which greatly impacts traditional distributors like Ma Jin.

But Ma Jin didn't exit the KA system rashly. Over the past few years, he has begun shifting to 'TT' channel operations, as he still has many good brands, and is also exploring the B2B (BC supermarket service provider) business model.

Ma Jin said helplessly, 'I used to be used to modern channels, thinking traditional channel distributors had a hard time, with salespeople running the market daily, serving terminals, and stocking up. I felt lucky to mainly do KA, but now I have to endure that hardship again.'

But so far, Ma Jin's company has not returned to its pre-2021 performance levels. On one hand, expanding into new channels means Ma Jin has to bear more management and operating costs; on the other hand, there are many distributors like him locally who want to transform to B2B because traditional business is tough. 'As far as I know, there are 20 to 30 trading companies in the local area doing B2B.'

'I'm nearly 60, and the market is changing too fast. Perhaps for a company like mine, rooted in traditional distribution, it's hard to see a new dividend period. Now, being a distributor requires not only capital and stores but also ideas, vision, foresight, and product selection skills—it's a test of comprehensive strength. My advantage is having some stable networks and channels. For now, I'll shift to a 'strategic defense' phase, slow down, stabilize, protect the basics, and slowly wait for spring to blossom,' Ma Jin told the author.

Image source: Xiaohongshu user @T11生鲜超市

The struggles of these three distributors reflect the pain and resilience of the beverage industry: He Tao's '4-3-3 system' is a survival sample for traditional distributors; Wang Bing's 'one step forward, one step back' confirms the sinking market is still a safe haven; Ma Jin's quiet retreat behind the scenes is a sign of changing consumer trends and the end of tradition...

The author believes that health, digitalization, and multi-channel integration have become inevitable trends in the beverage industry. If distributors want to ride through the cycle, they must not only hold the cash flow bottom line but also dare to 'heavily invest' in innovation in niche markets. After all, the future of the beverage industry will ultimately belong to those who, in the cold snap, keep their eyes on the cracks and strive to break the ice.


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## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: 擎苍
- Published: 2025-06-07
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/is-the-2025-beverage-market-cold-three-distributors-have-their-say-c903a020/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UlMAbYeyoKUA48c_931xjQ

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