---
title: "In 2026, Companies and Distributors Must First Think About How to 'Survive'"
description: "A sobering fact: for many beverage companies and distributors, 2026 is not about whether they can thrive, but how to survive. This is not alarmism but a conclusion based on real market feedback. From January to October 2025, the offline market, the most critical for beverages, saw a -5.6% growth compared to the same period last year, with nine consecutive months of negative growth from February to October."
author: "Aaron"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2026-01-04"
categories: "Dealer Operations, Management & Methods"
language: "en"
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original_source: "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yBcu_9tGWjlKDgpwgVAeNA"
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citation: "Aaron. “In 2026, Companies and Distributors Must First Think About How to 'Survive'.” New Distribution, 2026-01-04. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/in-2026-companies-and-distributors-must-first-think-about-how-to-survive-d3d415ab/"
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---

# In 2026, Companies and Distributors Must First Think About How to 'Survive'

> A sobering fact: for many beverage companies and distributors, 2026 is not about whether they can thrive, but how to survive. This is not alarmism but a conclusion based on real market feedback. From January to October 2025, the offline market, the most critical for beverages, saw a -5.6% growth compared to the same period last year, with nine consecutive months of negative growth from February to October.

**Source**丨品饮汇观察
Aaron First, a sobering fact: for many beverage companies and distributors, 2026 is not about whether they can thrive, but how to survive. This is not about creating anxiety, but a conclusion based on real feedback from market research. From January to October 2025, the offline market, which beverages rely on most, can almost be described as "dismal." Looking at the ten-month data, offline channel growth compared to the same period last year was -5.6%, with February to October seeing nine consecutive months of negative growth. This means that whether it's the traditional gift-box beverage peak seasons like New Year's and Spring Festival, or the regular beverage peak season from May to September, making money has become harder.
Image source: NielsenIQ data
It's not just at the data level; beverage companies and distributors closest to the front-line market have long felt the "chill" from the market—products are moving slower at the terminal, price inversions for major brands are increasing, terminal owners are becoming cautious about trial orders for new products, maintaining sales growth is becoming more difficult, and profit margins are shrinking...
A distributor told the author: "Including the market investment costs for new products I took on this year that the manufacturer hasn't yet offset, plus labor costs, this year has been a wasted effort; I can only barely break even."
Therefore, with the offline situation still grim next year, we have reason to believe: **It's time for companies and distributors to think about how to survive.**
**Why think about how to survive?**
Most companies and distributors are aware of the "difficulty" of the market environment.
Two or three years ago, competitive pressure in the beverage industry was already growing, not just in product innovation, but across the entire supply chain from upstream raw materials to downstream sales. But at that time, people who had just experienced the pandemic were still optimistic, thinking, "The difficulty is temporary; it will get better soon."
Meanwhile, in previous years, although consumption growth in first- and second-tier cities was slowing, the blueprint painted by "small-town youth" in third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level markets still tempted many, and companies and distributors could still find growth "gaps."
But this year, that "gap" seems to have closed.
According to data from NielsenIQ, hypermarkets, supermarkets, small supermarkets, chain stores, independent stores, and mother-and-baby stores declined by 22.5%, 5.7%, 4.6%, 10.3%, 4.6%, and 4.5% respectively. Convenience stores and grocery stores, which were seen as growth areas for beverages last year, also saw declines of 1.6% and 4.5% this year.
Image source: NielsenIQ data
This means that the offline channels on which beverage companies and distributors rely for survival are shrinking across the board.
For companies, channel declines directly lead to sales pressure, slower inventory turnover, and reduced efficiency of market investment.
For distributors, it means greater difficulty in distribution, longer payment cycles, and further squeezed profit margins.
More seriously, this all-channel negative growth reflects a dual decline in consumer purchase intention and frequency. Relying solely on channel expansion and terminal coverage can no longer drive growth; companies and distributors must re-examine channel value and operational models.
At the same time, looking at growth by city tier, third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level markets, which many small and medium beverage brands regard as "blue ocean markets" and "potential opportunities," have also seen varying degrees of decline, though slightly less than first- and second-tier cities.
Image source: NielsenIQ data
What does this indicate? The dividend of traditional offline channels has vanished, and the era of "making big money" through hard work and diligence is completely a thing of the past.
This is not alarmism; it is happening.
In the past, the beverage market had relatively limited variety, consumers had fewer choices, and channel distribution alone could generate sales. So distributors just needed to be diligent, maintain good relationships with terminal owners, and get products on shelves to see sales; companies just needed to recruit more distributors and launch new products, and they would eventually find channels that moved products.
But now, as the beverage market becomes increasingly saturated and consumers are more careful with their wallets, such scenarios are almost impossible. Image source: Xiaohongshu user @爱喝热拿铁的海大鲜
The market is highly saturated, product homogenization is severe, and consumers not only focus on brand and price but also on health, functionality, taste, and even emotional identity. Meanwhile, new retail models such as e-commerce, community group buying, and livestream commerce have diverted a large amount of offline demand, weakening the "shelf advantage" of traditional channels.
Furthermore, younger consumers are more rational in decision-making and less loyal; relying solely on relationships and terminal displays is no longer enough to trigger purchases. Therefore, even if companies and distributors work harder on distribution and visit more frequently, if the product itself lacks differentiated competitiveness, the brand lacks awareness, and channel strategies are not aligned with consumption trends, moving products will remain difficult and growth unsustainable.
So under these circumstances, **most beverage companies and distributors must think about how to "survive" next year.**
**In 2026, where are the opportunities for companies and distributors?**
We believe that more opportunities for beverage companies still lie offline.
This is mainly based on the characteristics of beverage consumption: immediacy, impulsiveness, and scene dependence. In offline scenarios such as thirst, dining, socializing, and sports, consumers often seek the convenience of "see it, buy it; think it, drink it," and offline touchpoints can more directly trigger consumption decisions.
For traditional brands and distributors, although online channels have seen significant growth, their operational logic is completely different from traditional offline: online rules are complex and ever-changing, traffic acquisition costs are high, and requirements for content creation, data operations, and logistics response are higher. Many regional distributors lack professional teams and sustained capital investment, and blindly shifting online can easily lead to the dilemma of "burning money without increasing revenue."
Therefore, offline remains the fundamental base and main battlefield for beverage sales. The key lies in **whether they can break free from traditional distribution thinking and find entry points that match consumer needs in channels, scenarios, and categories.**
For brands, the opportunity lies in deep insight into scenarios and precise entry.
Take Jindouya Honeysuckle Double Grapefruit Juice, which performed well this year, as an example. Its success was not about following the "fear of getting heaty" category, but keenly capturing the niche scenario of "children getting heaty." The brand targeted the core purchasing group of "mothers," emphasizing the reassuring selling point of "clean ingredients, no additives," and combined it with children's daily consumption scenarios. Initially, it built word-of-mouth through private domain channels such as mother-and-baby communities and children's service institutions, gradually building brand trust, and finally achieved breakout from niche to mass market.
Image source: Xiaohongshu user @田飞
For distributors, opportunities come more from underdeveloped special channels, such as semi-enclosed consumption scenarios like billiard halls, sports venues, fruit shops, pharmacies, and internet cafes.
These channels have **stable customer groups, less competition, and clear consumption motives**. As long as the product matches the scenario, sustained sales can be achieved. For example, sports venues are suitable for electrolyte water and vitamin drinks; pharmacies are suitable for light health drinks like red bean and coix seed water, and functional prune juice; fruit shops can pair with freshly squeezed NFC juices.
But for distributors, to enter these channels, they need to proactively explore special channel points, establish dedicated expansion teams, understand the consumption logic of different scenarios, and strengthen product selection and scenario matching capabilities. They cannot just push any product in; it must fit the scenario attributes. They also need to provide light operational support, such as basic display materials and scenario-based promotion plans, to help terminals increase sales.
In addition, emerging channels like bulk snack stores, hard discount stores, instant retail, and membership stores still hold structural opportunities. But companies and distributors should not enter blindly; they must assess whether they have the corresponding operational capabilities.
Taking instant retail as an example, companies entering need to focus on controlling the price system, ensuring terminal inventory visibility, and designing specifications and packaging suitable for online bestsellers; distributors need to strengthen local warehousing and delivery capabilities, build online promotion teams, and learn to use platform tools to empower store sales.
In the author's view, in the current market environment, **there is no longer a universal channel dividend; only channel strategies that match one's own capabilities.**
**Survival is a reconstruction of systemic capabilities**
In summary, **the survival logic for 2026 has completely changed: from "distribution equals sales" to "precise reach drives sales," from "chasing trends" to "deep cultivation of scenarios."**
Whether brand or distributor, only by returning to the real consumption scene, positioning products in scenarios, building connections through trust, and optimizing operations through efficiency, can they find a sustainable path to survival in the stock market.
In the author's view, **survival is not about waiting for the market to recover, but actively reshaping every contact with consumers and channels.**
**【Moving Toward the C-End】The 11th China FMCG Conference**
**Time: March 16-18, 2026**
**Location: Chengdu, China**


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## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: Aaron
- Published: 2026-01-04
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/in-2026-companies-and-distributors-must-first-think-about-how-to-survive-d3d415ab/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yBcu_9tGWjlKDgpwgVAeNA

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