---
title: "Baijiu Sales from 61.26 Billion in 2016 to 56.54 Billion in 2017: What the National Bureau of Statistics Says: Growth of 14.42%"
description: "The data changes reveal the truth behind 'squeezing water' from the baijiu economy? According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2017, the baijiu industry saw a 14.42% increase in sales revenue, but compared with 2016 data, there are apparent contradictions in production and sales figures, suggesting possible data adjustments."
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published: "2018-03-14"
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# Baijiu Sales from 61.26 Billion in 2016 to 56.54 Billion in 2017: What the National Bureau of Statistics Says: Growth of 14.42%

> The data changes reveal the truth behind 'squeezing water' from the baijiu economy? According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2017, the baijiu industry saw a 14.42% increase in sales revenue, but compared with 2016 data, there are apparent contradictions in production and sales figures, suggesting possible data adjustments.

**Data changes: Is the truth about 'squeezing water' from the baijiu economy?**
Text | Yunjiu Toutiao (ID: YJTT2016)
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released production and operation data for the national alcohol industry in 2017. Among them, there were 1,593 baijiu enterprises above designated size, completing a total liquor production of 11,980.6 million liters, a year-on-year increase of 6.86%; sales revenue of 565.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.42%; and total profits of 102.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.79%.
However, comparing with the previous year's data reveals a "self-contradiction."
According to the 2016 alcohol industry statistics released by the statistical department, there were 1,578 baijiu enterprises above designated size, with cumulative production of 13,583.6 million liters, cumulative sales revenue of 612.574 billion yuan, and cumulative total profits of 79.715 billion yuan.
It is not difficult to see that among the main economic indicators of the baijiu industry above, the two figures of production and sales revenue have declined significantly, but the statistical results given by the statistical department are increases of 6.86% and 14.42% respectively, and the profit growth amount and growth rate do not correspond either.
Is this a statistical "own goal" incident, or is there a deeper meaning behind it?
**1**
**Baijiu data "contradiction"**
**Beer and wine growth rates are accurate**
In addition to the above baijiu industry data, the statistical department also released data showing that in 2017, national beer enterprises above designated size produced 44,014.9 million liters of beer, a year-on-year decrease of 0.66%; national wine production above designated size was 1,001.1 million liters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.25%.
As can be seen from the figure, among the three major alcoholic beverages, the production and growth rates of beer and wine correspond accurately, but the baijiu production and growth rate data "conflict" significantly.
From the table above, compared with 2016, the total baijiu production and sales revenue in 2017 decreased by 1,603 million liters and 47.132 billion yuan respectively. The profit growth rate derived from the figures is 29.02%, but the announced growth rates are 6.86%, 14.42%, and 35.79%, respectively, indicating that the data are no longer consistent.
**2**
**Is the truth about 'squeezing water' from the baijiu economy?**
If the 2017 statistical data are closer to reality (which is logical), it means that the 2016 baijiu data have been adjusted, with significant downward revisions in production, sales, and profits. Calculated backward based on the 2017 data, the 2016 baijiu production was approximately 11,211.5 million liters, sales were approximately 494.181 billion yuan, and net profit was 75.740 billion yuan.
From the industry performance perspective, over the past two years, baijiu has generally recovered, especially the listed baijiu companies, which have seen comprehensive growth in total production, sales revenue, and total profits. But why do the industry data show inconsistent rises and falls?
Some industry insiders analyze that this may be due to inconsistent statistical calibers before and after, but we note that in beer and wine, no such "contradiction" phenomenon has appeared, so the explanation of inconsistent statistical calibers alone may not hold water.
This may be related to the macroeconomic trend of "squeezing water" from economic data.
At the beginning of 2017, the economic data fraud incident in Liaoning Province attracted widespread attention and strong repercussions. At the beginning of 2018, at least 13 provinces lowered their GDP growth targets for 2018, which was also seen by the outside world as a result of the "squeezing water" factor in the economy.
Not long ago, Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview with the media that China implements a hierarchical accounting system, and previously there were results where local data summed up exceeded the national total. For example, in 2016, the sum of local GDP exceeded the national data by 3.6 trillion yuan. "The Party Central Committee and the State Council have made it very clear that the important direction of accounting system reform is to implement unified accounting of regional GDP. The timetable and task book have been determined, and it is to be implemented by 2019."
Ning Jizhe also said that for the few localities, enterprises, and units that engage in fraud and statistical fraud, statistical violations, whether they are over-reporting, under-reporting, or refusing to report, they should be dealt with according to law and regulations.
In the context of the alcohol industry, according to the national and local hierarchical accounting system, data "water" may indeed occur. For example, when a distillery brews one ton of base liquor and bottles it for sale, it is possible that the base liquor and bottled liquor are measured separately, and then included in statistical data at the county and city levels. The liquor is still 10,000 liters, but the numbers may have changed significantly.
For listed alcohol companies, their economic indicator data statistics are generally rigorous and accurate, but among the numerous small and medium-sized baijiu enterprises, due to various reasons, the phenomenon of data "inflation" cannot be ruled out. Some local governments may also actively require "inflation" to pursue political achievements.
In regional markets, some liquor companies with limited market scope "brush up" production data of tens of thousands of tons or even more, and sales data as high as over one billion or even several billion yuan, comparable to national baijiu brands. This situation has existed for a long time and is regarded as an "open secret" in the industry.
Against the backdrop of the "squeezing water" from economic data being included in the timetable, it is not difficult to understand the "new changes" in baijiu data statistics.
**3**
**Data "coming down" is beneficial to industry development**
The newly released baijiu data may not look so good, but it is beneficial to the healthy development of the industry.
Taking the liquor industry revitalization plans implemented in provinces such as Shandong and Henan as an example, if enterprises set overly high development goals due to political achievements or "face" considerations, rush to expand, and even inject "water" into the data, it is very likely to lead to various risks.
In particular, these regional liquor enterprises face severe competition from first-tier brands that are aggressively penetrating downward. If they ignore the construction of market foundations and tighten market investment due to overly high "data" expectations, it is actually detrimental to their development.
In this sense, the "contradiction" in baijiu production and sales revenue data in this alcohol industry data not only exposes possible problems in the industry but also serves as a warning to liquor companies.
The reason for the "contradiction" in baijiu data is still unknown. If it is really "squeezing water," then we should give a big thumbs up to the statistical department.
What do you think about the "squeezing water" from statistical data? Leave a comment at the end of the article to share!
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