---
title: "5 Major Trends in the New Tea Drink Industry in 2025: Who Will Survive?"
description: "The tea drink industry in the first half of 2025 has been turbulent, with financial reports showing Mixue Bingcheng's revenue nearing 15 billion yuan, comparable to the total of the 2nd to 6th ranked companies combined, while Guming's growth soared to 41.2%, and Naixue became the only brand with negative growth. The industry has moved from 'a hundred schools of thought' to 'the strong get stronger' in an ultimate elimination round. This article analyzes five major trends: supply chain, product, sinking market, franchising, and going overseas, and how they are reshaping the industry landscape."
author: "周半仙"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2025-09-22"
categories: "Consumer & Categories, Industry Trends"
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original_source: "https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U0evKFu3zVBXzQYPOnVrCg"
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citation: "周半仙. “5 Major Trends in the New Tea Drink Industry in 2025: Who Will Survive?.” New Distribution, 2025-09-22. https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/5-major-trends-in-the-new-tea-drink-industry-in-2025-who-will-survive-ed8e5cdc/"
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# 5 Major Trends in the New Tea Drink Industry in 2025: Who Will Survive?

> The tea drink industry in the first half of 2025 has been turbulent, with financial reports showing Mixue Bingcheng's revenue nearing 15 billion yuan, comparable to the total of the 2nd to 6th ranked companies combined, while Guming's growth soared to 41.2%, and Naixue became the only brand with negative growth. The industry has moved from 'a hundred schools of thought' to 'the strong get stronger' in an ultimate elimination round. This article analyzes five major trends: supply chain, product, sinking market, franchising, and going overseas, and how they are reshaping the industry landscape.

### **Source** | Lianshang.com **ID** | lingshouzixun Author | Zhou Banxian

The tea drink industry in the first half of 2025 has been turbulent, with the latest financial data astonishing: Mixue Bingcheng's revenue neared 15 billion yuan, with its scale comparable to the total of the 2nd to 6th ranked companies combined; Guming's growth rate soared to 41.2%, while Naixue became the only 'laggard' with negative growth.

Now, the tea drink industry has completely bid farewell to 'a hundred schools of thought' and entered the ultimate elimination round of 'the strong get stronger'. Next, let's delve into how the five major trends of supply chain, product, sinking market, franchising, and going overseas are reshaping the industry landscape.

This war without gunpowder will determine who can laugh last in this fierce competition.

**Supply Chain Decisive Battle:**
**From 'Front-end Price War' to 'Back-end Efficiency War'**

The financial reports for the first half of 2025 clearly reveal: whoever can make their supply chain 'heavier', 'deeper', and 'more efficient' will hold the pricing power and growth power at the table. Major brands are building their competitive barriers through distinctly different paths.

Mixue Bingcheng has taken cost control to the extreme, with its core strategy being 'self-reliance'. Mixue has achieved 100% self-production of core beverage ingredients, establishing 5 major production bases and over 70 intelligent production lines nationwide. Its 'end-to-end' supply chain has established over 20 standardized planting bases in core raw material production areas, signing guaranteed purchase agreements with farmers and cooperatives. In the first half of 2025, Mixue's fresh fruit procurement covered 17 provinces in China, driving income growth for approximately 144,000 fruit farmers.

Guming and Chabaidao do not pursue full-chain self-production but instead bet on efficiency through a warehousing and distribution network 'closer to stores', competing on freshness and delivery speed. For example, 98% of Guming's stores achieve 'two-day delivery' with cold chain direct delivery, 76% of stores are within a 150-kilometer radius of warehouses, and 85% of produce is sourced directly from origins, building an efficient network through 22 logistics warehouses nationwide. This 'short, flat, fast' model ensures the 'breathability' of fresh ingredients like fruits while significantly reducing logistics losses and costs.

Chabaidao has created a unique 'trunk + city + express' three-tier distribution model, building 26 warehousing and distribution centers, with 93.8% of stores able to achieve 'next-day delivery' for replenishment, and 95% of stores receiving deliveries more than twice a week. Its fruit unified distribution rate is as high as 80%, and this 'invisible moat' ensures product stability and flavor consistency.

Bawang Chaji's supply chain strategy is highly consistent with its brand tone: it does not pursue full-chain coverage but focuses on the quality of core raw materials. For example, its products are mainly original-leaf fresh milk tea, requiring high tea quality, and its supply chain management emphasizes traceability and quality control; in tea procurement, it establishes long-term cooperation with high-quality tea gardens to ensure the quality of original-leaf tea.

Unlike the above tea drink brands, Aunty Shanghai and Naixue's Tea belong to the model exploration faction, with some brands still in the optimization and exploration phase of their supply chains, and their efficiency is directly reflected in profit levels.

Although Aunty Shanghai has established a '13+7+14' warehousing and logistics network, its supply chain efficiency remains weak. Its net profit margin of 11.2% in the first half of 2025 is below the industry average, clearly indicating that its supply chain still has significant room for optimization and cost reduction.

Naixue's Tea is constrained by its direct-operated model, making its supply chain costs naturally higher. However, in the first half of 2025, by optimizing inventory and logistics, its losses have narrowed significantly. It is actively exploring asset-light models, improving efficiency through cooperation with third parties, and seeking a new balance between cost and experience.

Competition in the tea drink industry has entered the 'supply chain finals'. The financial reports clearly reveal two dominant paths and one differentiated path:

**'Heavy asset' cost reduction:** Represented by Mixue Bingcheng, achieving extreme cost advantages through full-chain self-control, dominating the sinking market.

**'Agile network' efficiency:** Represented by Guming and Chabaidao, building efficient warehousing and distribution logistics networks to find the best balance between freshness and cost, achieving rapid scale expansion.

**'Core focus' differentiation:** Represented by Bawang Chaji, not pursuing comprehensiveness but focusing on core raw material quality to establish a high-end brand image.

Aunty Shanghai and Naixue's Tea represent the efficiency bottlenecks and model challenges encountered during exploration. In the future, the quality of supply chain capabilities will directly determine how long a brand can sit at the table.

**Product Landscape:**
**From 'Free-for-All' to 'Strategic Focus'**

In the first half of 2025, the product strategies of tea drink brands have moved from 'free-for-all' to the 'strategic positioning' stage. Each brand has chosen a different track based on its own genes and resources, presenting three core paths: 'classic cost-effectiveness', 'seasonal fresh fruit battle', and 'cultural value', as well as 'breakout players' exploring new directions.

Mixue Bingcheng's strategy is to consolidate its base, using classic products to achieve unlimited repurchase. In the first half of 2025, Mixue's product innovation pace slowed, launching only 5 new products, but its classic products have long lifecycles and high market recognition.

Guming and Chabaidao have both launched a 'fresh fruit battle' and taken it to the extreme, but with different focuses. Guming uses high-frequency new product launches as its core strategy, simultaneously advancing new product iterations and coffee track expansion. In the first half of 2025, it launched a total of 52 new products covering milk tea, coffee, and other categories. Among them, the coffee business continued to strengthen as a core growth engine—by June, over 8,000 stores were equipped with professional coffee machines, 16 new coffee drinks were launched, and the coffee business covered over 80% of stores and became standard.

Chabaidao chose a heavier but more effective model: using 'visible' real ingredients and ultimate taste to create hit products, focusing on 'super hits, quality breakthrough'.

Chabaidao focuses on signature products like Mango Pomelo Sago and Soy Milk Yu Qilin, with a high proportion of innovative flavor products. In the second quarter of 2025, Chabaidao's average daily GMV per store reached the highest quarterly level in nearly a year, with a sequential increase of about 15%. Its hit product 'Lychee Ice Milk' sold over 12 million cups within 44 days of launch, all made with freshly peeled fruit in stores, without added pre-packaged juice, which is very rare in the industry.

Bawang Chaji and Aunty Shanghai 'take a different path', avoiding the bloody 'fruit tea price war' by enhancing product added value to attract specific customer groups.

Bawang Chaji adheres to its original-leaf fresh milk tea base, with innovation centered around tea culture. In the first half of 2025, Bawang Chaji launched 'Qianlong No.1' salted milk tea, based on yellow tea, paired with light cream made from butter, cleverly blending the seemingly opposing flavors of salty and sweet, giving consumers a new taste impact.

After competing on taste and culture, Aunty Shanghai seized the definite trend of 'healthification', injecting functional attributes into products to directly address the health needs of urban white-collar workers, seeking differentiated breakthroughs.

Thus, while stabilizing with classic five-grain tea drinks, its innovation direction has shifted towards health. During the 2025 National Nutrition Week, Aunty Shanghai launched a newly upgraded 'Super Fruit and Vegetable Tea Series', meeting 20%-35% of adults' daily dietary fiber needs, directly addressing the new health demands of national beverages.

As for Naixue's Tea, under the pressure of its direct-operated model, it is undergoing an important transformation, aiming to raise average order value through 'tea drinks + light meals' and explore a new profit model.

On one hand, it is testing multiple categories, increasing the frequency of new product launches, trying to find new growth points through diversification. In the second quarter of 2025, Naixue launched 17 new products, including 2 milk drinks, 4 fruit teas, 6 yogurt smoothies, 1 coconut juice, and 4 tea wines. Its 'Baqi Yangmei' series returned, selling 3 million cups in half a month, with a single-day peak of 450,000 cups.

On the other hand, it is vigorously promoting 'Naixue Green' light drink and light food stores, indicating that its strategic focus has shifted from 'pure tea drinks' to 'dining composite experience'. In March this year, it launched the world's first light drink and light food store—'Naixue Green'—and to date, it has successfully opened over 30 stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other cities.

The product battlefield in 2025 shows that tea drink brands no longer pursue 'comprehensiveness' but have chosen to deeply focus on tracks that best match their brand genes and resources. Whether it's Mixue's 'classics', Guming's 'seasonal', Chabaidao's 'hits', Bawang Chaji's 'culture', Aunty Shanghai's 'health', or Naixue's 'transformation', it all indicates that the industry is moving towards a more mature and segmented new stage.

**Sinking Market and Franchising:**
**From 'Scale Expansion' to 'Model Differentiation'**

In the first half of 2025, the battle in the new Chinese tea drink market continues to burn fiercely in the sinking market and the franchising battlefield. This is no longer an option but a must-fight ground that determines the survival of brands.

The sinking market has turned from a 'blue ocean' to a 'red ocean'. Mixue Bingcheng has 57.6% of its stores in third-tier and below cities, establishing a solid advantage in the sinking market through an 'extreme low price + high-density store opening' strategy. Guming increased its store proportion in second-tier and below cities to 81%, achieving efficient distribution and stable supply in the sinking market through 'regional deep cultivation + cold chain logistics'; Chabaidao is actively expanding into East and Central China, especially with steady growth in store numbers in second- and third-tier cities.

Therefore, 'those who win the sinking market win the world' remains the main theme, but the gameplay has upgraded: Mixue relies on 'low prices', Guming on 'fresh fruit supply chain'.

Franchising is the only solution for rapid expansion, and the rapid growth of Mixue, Guming, and Bawang Chaji all benefit from it.

For example, Mixue has 53,014 stores globally, with franchise stores accounting for 99%; Bawang Chaji has 7,038 stores globally (up 40.9% year-on-year), with franchises accounting for 85%; Chabaidao has 8,444 stores nationwide, with franchises accounting for 90%; Guming has only 6 direct-operated stores, with franchise stores accounting for over 99%.

Franchising has accelerated store expansion for these brands while also driving their revenue growth. For example, as of the first half of 2025, Guming's revenue structure shows that revenue from franchise stores accounts for 95.8% of total revenue, with sales of goods and equipment at 4.496 billion yuan, accounting for 79.4% of total revenue, and franchise management service revenue at 1.159 billion yuan, accounting for 20.5%.

Mixue Bingcheng is closer to the role of a 'commodity supplier', almost entirely relying on goods and equipment sales, with franchise services accounting for only a minimal proportion. In terms of revenue structure, its growth mainly comes from two segments: goods and equipment sales and franchise-related services. Among them, goods and equipment sales revenue accounts for 97.4% of total revenue, and franchise and related service revenue accounts for 2.6%.

The battle in the first half of 2025 shows that the sinking market is a must-fight ground, but only Mixue's low-price barrier or Guming's supply chain efficiency can establish absolute advantages there.

Franchising is the wings of expansion, but how high it can fly ultimately depends on the core of the brand's business model—whether to become an 'arms dealer' like Mixue or an 'empowerment platform' like Guming.

Mixue and Guming have each represented the pinnacle of these two paths, and other brands must find their own differentiated ecological niche, otherwise they will inevitably face marginalization.

**Pattern Initially Set:**
**From 'A Hundred Schools of Thought' to 'The Strong Get Stronger'**

In the first half of 2025, the earnings season for China's new tea drink market came to an end, with six major brands delivering a report card of 'ice and fire'. The industry pattern has moved from 'a hundred schools of thought' to a deep differentiation stage of 'the strong get stronger', with the gap in revenue and profits sharply widening.

From the perspective of revenue scale, the market has formed three distinct tiers with a fault line:

> First tier (over 10 billion yuan): Mixue Bingcheng leads alone, with revenue of 14.875 billion yuan, firmly holding the top position, with a scale nearly 1.5 times the total of the 2nd to 6th ranked companies combined, an unshakable dominance;
>
> Second tier (5-7 billion yuan): Bawang Chaji (6.725 billion yuan) and Guming (5.663 billion yuan) are in close combat, with a gap of only about 1 billion yuan, indicating fierce competition;
>
> Third tier (1-2.5 billion yuan): Chabaidao (2.5 billion yuan), Naixue's Tea (2.178 billion yuan), and Aunty Shanghai (1.818 billion yuan) form the third camp, with a huge gap from the top players, highlighting survival pressure.

From the perspective of growth momentum, Guming ranks first with a growth rate of 41.2%, showing the strongest growth explosiveness. Even with its huge size, Mixue Bingcheng maintains a high growth rate of 39.3%, combining scale and speed, leaving competitors far behind. Naixue's Tea is the only brand with negative growth (-14.4%), and the risk of falling behind is sharply increasing.

This differentiation is directly related to the business models of each brand:

First, **franchising is king.** Except for Naixue, the other five brands are dominated by franchising. The expansion of store networks directly drives revenue growth. Guming added a net 1,570 stores in the first half of the year, which is the core engine of its high growth.

Second, **direct-operated stores face pressure.** Naixue is mainly direct-operated, with a net decrease of 132 stores in the first half of the year, directly leading to a decline in revenue. The heavy-asset model appears sluggish in the current cycle.

**Accelerating Overseas Expansion:**
**Three Factions, Different Paths**

In 2025, the overseas expansion of Chinese tea drink brands has clearly presented three distinct strategic paradigms and ambition blueprints.

**Mixue Bingcheng has entered the 'no-man's land', expanding globally in a near 'physical coverage' manner.** Its core strategy is 'use low prices to test all blank markets', forming regional monopolies through high-density store openings, leaving no room for competitors. For example, Mixue's global store count increased to 53,014, adding 9,796 stores in half a year, with astonishing expansion speed. Its store network covers 12 countries globally, with 57.6% of stores in third-tier and below cities, showing strong penetration in the sinking market.

**Bawang Chaji's strategic focus is clearly biased towards 'bringing Chinese tea culture overseas'**, using Malaysia as a springboard to quickly replicate to Singapore, Indonesia, and other Chinese communities. Domestically, it is steady; internationally, it is aggressive, using franchising to quickly test and learn, which is key to its high growth. For example, Bawang Chaji's global store count reached 7,038, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%, making it the most aggressive in expansion speed. Its overseas stores expanded to 208, covering five markets: Malaysia (178), Singapore (16), Indonesia (8), Thailand (5), and the United States (1), with significant overseas expansion results.

In contrast to Bawang Chaji's aggressiveness, **Chabaidao is a 'license-first' steady player, with its core strategy being 'deep cultivation domestically, pilot overseas'.** While penetrating East and Central China domestically, its overseas expansion is extremely cautious: it must first obtain local market franchise qualifications (e.g., in South Korea), ensuring compliance before steadily opening stores.

Chabaidao's national store count increased to 8,444, with overseas stores landing in 8 countries and regions including South Korea, Spain, and Singapore, with over 40 signed stores. Among them, it obtained franchise qualifications in the South Korean market, possessing the capability for large-scale chain operations. Currently, the number of stores in South Korea has reached 18, and overseas market expansion has begun to show results.

Therefore, the overseas expansion paths of Chinese tea drink brands have clearly presented three distinct strategic paradigms:

  * Mixue Bingcheng represents 'scale crushing' globalization, sweeping markets with absolute low prices and density;
  * Bawang Chaji represents 'culture breaking through circles' globalization, leveraging cultural identity for rapid entry;
  * Chabaidao represents 'compliance-first' globalization, placing risk control above expansion speed.

Three strategies, three futures. Time will tell which model can better withstand the test of localization, but the global competition of Chinese tea drink brands has already entered a more three-dimensional and diversified new stage.

**Final Thoughts**

In 2025, China's tea drink industry has moved from 'a hundred schools of thought' to a deep differentiation stage of 'the strong get stronger', with supply chain efficiency, product strategy, sinking market, and franchising model becoming the core battlefields for brand survival and growth.

Whether it's Mixue Bingcheng building a low-price barrier with a 'heavy asset' supply chain, Guming and Chabaidao achieving scale expansion through agile warehousing and distribution networks, or Bawang Chaji seizing the high-end market through cultural differentiation, each leading brand has found its own competitive path.

In the future, as the supply chain decisive battle intensifies, overseas strategies diversify, and product tracks further focus, only brands that continuously polish their 'internal skills', accurately grasp consumer needs, and build differentiated barriers will be able to stay at the table in this ultimate elimination round, leading the industry towards a more mature and segmented new stage.


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## Citation metadata

- Publisher: New Distribution
- Author: 周半仙
- Published: 2025-09-22
- Canonical: https://xinjignxiao.com/en/articles/5-major-trends-in-the-new-tea-drink-industry-in-2025-who-will-survive-ed8e5cdc/
- Original source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U0evKFu3zVBXzQYPOnVrCg

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