---
title: "2021, Crossing the Single-Plank Bridge: 21 Thoughts on the Consumer Goods Industry"
description: "New consumption became a hot topic in business last year, but some views need to be expressed. Crossing the single-plank bridge means success, but will it be you? This article offers 21 reflections on the consumer goods industry, covering topics from brand building and market trends to the importance of product quality and the challenges of innovation."
author: "沈帅波"
publisher: "New Distribution"
email: "zhaobo258@gmail.com"
telephone: "+8615854817671"
published: "2021-03-01"
language: "en"
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# 2021, Crossing the Single-Plank Bridge: 21 Thoughts on the Consumer Goods Industry

> New consumption became a hot topic in business last year, but some views need to be expressed. Crossing the single-plank bridge means success, but will it be you? This article offers 21 reflections on the consumer goods industry, covering topics from brand building and market trends to the importance of product quality and the challenges of innovation.

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New consumption became a major business trend last year. But some viewpoints need to be expressed.
Some things are not as rosy as they seem.
Crossing the single-plank bridge means success. But will that person be you?
**-01-**
In 2021, Genki Forest plans to go overseas, launch vending machines, and build a brand matrix. In short, it aims to break through resistance and enter the next stage—in stock market jargon, "break out of the box."
Consumer goods follow a traceable path because they likely iterate along the routes taken by past giants.
Almost every international consumer goods giant was born during a phase of industrialization in its country.
Their growth periods coincided with the rise of the middle class in their home markets. In maturity, they achieved globalization, found the greatest common denominator of markets, and completed numerous mergers, acquisitions, and integrations.
They experience every necessary stage. Thanks to China's rapid changes, we have many opportunities to open new battlefields.
**But don't blindly believe in exponential growth—I don't think it exists in the consumer goods field. It's ultimately based on a real-economy model, and if it appears, it's only at a certain stage.**
What's evident is that major beverage groups have powerful channels: Coca-Cola, Wahaha, Uni-President, and Nongfu Spring each have no fewer than 600,000 freezers. They are like capillaries, and you can't break through with a single point. Besides, they're not stupid; they're also innovating.
**-02-**
Jiangxiaobai emphasizes its scenarios: small drinks, small gatherings. Alcohol is either a social currency in the mind or scenario-oriented.
As a parent company, Jiangxiaobai has incubated more independent brands, cutting across different categories, scenarios, and demographics.
This means that representative companies among China's first generation of internet-famous new consumer brands have entered the formal establishment.
**-03-**
**Ultimately, consensus is the origin of a brand.**
Advertising is just one form and means of creating consensus.
As long as 1% (or maybe 0.1%) of people worldwide continue to believe that diamonds are forever and that marriage requires a diamond ring, this business will be endless.
Whether you collaborate with top celebrities, control production to create scarcity, auction at sky-high prices for event marketing to establish the peak, or advertise to brainwash the masses and educate the next generation—all work toward this consensus.
**So, does your advertising create consensus for you?**
Category controllers continuously create consensus about their category. New entrants carve out a corner, like my diamond ring can only be bought once with an ID card. That's also a consensus in a specific field.
**-04-**
**"XX's XX can be redone all over again."** This phrase has been overused and lost its meaning.
In fact, most of the time, the opportunity to redo things still belongs to the leading companies that have been at it for years. They have decades of experience, resources, work harder than us, and can bear the cost of mistakes. Isn't that frustrating?
**But I'm not saying new players can't succeed; these two are neither sufficient nor necessary conditions.**
**I just want to remind everyone not to be fooled by certain things.**
Like "big organizations don't notice new changes," "big organizations are hard to turn around," "big organizations lack crisis awareness," with examples usually citing the decline of Nokia and Kodak. That's another form of self-congratulation and narrow-mindedness.
**-05-**
Many people like to advise others on love because they think they've experienced it and understand.
Similarly, many people think consumer goods investment is easy simply because they consider themselves consumers and thus understand.
**But this is a constantly changing matter; most likely, we only understand parts of it.**
However, ordinary people rarely challenge technical matters because sometimes we don't even know the terms. So we're more reverent.
In fact, those who understand don't believe in those messy projects, and those who don't understand aren't interested either, and may be more reverent and thus more rational. Only those in between are most easily deceived.
**-06-**
In 2021, VC investment in consumer goods will likely cool down at some inflection point. The reason is simple: things turn when they reach extremes.
Maybe it's because valuations are too high and no one takes over, or because they realize it's a zero-sum game and can't beat old giants with new projects. Or maybe they finally discover their products aren't attractive. Of course, it could simply be a new trend emerging.
**-07-**
People of one era do the things of that era. It's not about whether you understand afterward, but whether you can perceive it faster. It's about sensing one step ahead and acting half a step ahead.
**-08-**
Today I saw a new hair dye brand targeting post-00s. I think it's better to target middle-aged and elderly people with gray hair. That demographic has a larger market. If they could position it as a gift from children to parents, it would have even more market potential.
Note: I'm not sure I'm right. I might be proven wrong soon. I'm just sharing my reasoning.
In my view, new consumption doesn't equal making products for young people. Making newer things for the elderly is also new consumption. When pandering to youth becomes politically correct, I think it's meaningless.
**-09-**
Japan has a brand over 100 years old called Hacci. It started with honey, known as the Hermès of honey. Its stores are all in top malls with the finest decor and displays, not at all like a honey seller.
Now it has expanded into high-end skincare products made with top-grade honey as an ingredient. A single bar of soap sells for nearly 500 RMB.
Perhaps it's the third repetition: an era centered on scenario and brand has arrived. Future category ownership will be determined in the mind first, not just by physical attributes.
**-10-**
It's been many years since countless products slapped the word "craftsmanship" on themselves, a term that has nothing to do with them. But have truly great products emerged? Not many.
People just think the word can harvest leeks; they don't believe craftsmanship can bring commercial success.
Only when a craftsman achieves huge success will this concept truly be accepted in China. Let's look forward to that day.
**-11-**
Beauty is productivity. High quality is productivity.
The other day, I asked female colleagues to recommend a hand cream, and they recommended the brand BYREDO. If you know it, congratulations, you're trendy.
A single tube costs around 200 RMB. I thought, are you crazy? Then my colleague said she uses it, and it suits your status as boss. At that moment, I realized that this generation's consumption (non-investment) is no longer defined by disposable income but by their level of approval. They'll pay a little for something that just works, but a lot for self-satisfaction, dignity, and even elevation.
Later, I looked up the brand story. Founder Ben regards perfume works as emotional expressions of important memories. Compared to intuitive art forms like literature, painting, sculpture, and photography, Ben prefers scent—a more abstract medium closer to his artistic realm—to present memories.
**-12-**
CMOs and CEOs of consumer goods companies with annual revenues of several billion are often more pessimistic, pragmatic, and humble than some bosses who just had a small burst of success. Maybe they've seen tens of millions in accounts daily and are no longer floating. They know the road is long, the mean will regress, and no pit can be bypassed.
**-13-**
In the consumer goods industry now, if you encounter a downturn, it's not gradual; it collapses in big strides, like a limit-down in stocks. So, it's like sailing against the current: if you don't advance, you retreat.
**-14-**
If you're lucky in life and earn 10 million RMB in China (according to Hurun's latest data, 5 million households have this, assuming parents didn't pass down material wealth), you might spend 80% on a house, 10% on funds and stocks, and the rest on food, travel, etc.
In fact, if you earn 20 million or more, that might drop to less than 10%. For billionaires, it's 0.1%.
Under big data, China's consumption as a share of GDP is still below 40%, while the US has been around 75%. When will we truly consume? I think it requires a more gently rising monetary cycle.
**-15-**
You always magnify what you care about. What you don't care about might be bigger. So a professional perspective can cause huge deviations in your understanding of consumers.
Consumers don't think it's important that your elderly chairman appears in a livestream. Only the chairman and senior management think so. Consumers care about discounts and whether there are attractive hosts.
Consumers won't count whether your beef noodles have exactly 49 scallions.
**-16-**
I'm very optimistic about the development trend of semi-finished (food) products in China. I think it's at a tipping point. As the generation that enjoys grocery shopping and cooking (the 50s, 60s, 70s) ages, many people now don't like to cook (lazy, can't, busy—all reasons). But Chinese people mentally feel that eating takeout every day is miserable.
In the past, from the supply side, semi-finished products were poorly made—not tasty and expensive. Now they're getting better and cheaper.
Ten years ago, I bought my first air fryer, a new Philips model for 2,999 RMB.
Last week, I saw the cheapest on Tmall at 99 RMB, with average prices between 299-399 RMB.
**This means many high-tech cooking products have become completely affordable. This might be a basic condition for a boom in semi-finished products.**
Leading kitchen appliance company Robam Appliances incubated a new brand called "Dàchú" (Chef), positioned as an expert in Chinese cooking. By using technology to achieve "steaming," the core method of Chinese cooking, it can highly replicate a real chef or mother's cooking.
In the past, kitchen appliances were mainly dominated by Western product concepts; in the future, Chinese concepts will lead.
Leading poultry company Sunner Development, which mainly raised chickens and was a major supplier to KFC and McDonald's in China, is now developing its C-end product line. Cutting from the back end to the front end will be a common situation across various sectors in China in the next decade.
Buy an air fryer, get a pack of KFC-style popcorn chicken or chicken strips from a fresh food platform, and it's ready in five or six minutes. How convenient! In comparison, most Singaporean households don't cook. I think this will soon become a reality in China, driving development for many companies along the chain.
**-17-**
Ultimately, whether it's an old tree sprouting new branches or planting a new tree, the most important thing is whether the branch is good—that is, whether the product is good.
Brand aging starts with the product.
Brand rejuvenation must also start with the product. More advertising is just a beauty shot; it won't work after a few days.
**Brand aging, in the final analysis, starts with the team and the boss.**
Boss aging might be due to age and wealth, leading to detachment from the front line and the masses. It could also be because they're surrounded by sycophants who praise everything they say.
Or it might simply be a lack of higher vision and loss of motivation.
Team aging might start with a shift from uniting against external threats to internal infighting, or from narrow-mindedness.
In short, aging is academically called "entropy increase." Any organization can experience entropy increase at any time. How to counter it is an eternal topic. The first step is to acknowledge its existence.
**-18-**
I'm very optimistic about selling "non-standard products" through livestreaming. Take Jianzhan (a type of tea bowl) as an example.
Tea ware has a fixed group of enthusiasts. In the past, they built sales channels through physical stores, offline expos, or Taobao shops.
Today, short videos can use algorithms to find interested people for the craftsmanship and appreciation of Jianzhan, and livestreaming builds trust to sell directly. Moreover, for enthusiasts and casual fans, this increases purchase frequency.
Similar is smoked goose. A friend strongly recommended smoked goose he bought on Douyin. He even contacted the owner, who had bought all the geese in the town. This is more efficient and powerful than past image-text malls.
In a sense, this is "goods finding people"—goods find those who need them. Friends in related fields should seize this opportunity to at least move up a notch. The strategy is to flexibly demonstrate professionalism and authenticity (different from channel product strategies).
**-19-**
Remove the factor of being a cheap alternative—do you dare say you have brand power? Are you a national trend? The difference between a brand and a label is whether people are willing to pay a premium. The essence of premium is "thickening" the brand.
**-20-**
The old, low-tech trick of "buy one get one free" for new products really works.
Yesterday I went to the supermarket, planning to buy a new internet-famous brand. Then right above it was a new product from Yili, wrapped in yellow tape with big letters saying "Buy One Get One Free."
Then I, full of style, of course bought the buy-one-get-one-free one.
**-21-**
As of the last trading day, Procter & Gamble's P/E ratio was 24. Unilever's was 23.89. Surprisingly consistent.
LVMH, Kering, and other luxury giants' P/E ratios have climbed to about 40 after the pandemic, compared to an average of 23 over the past decade.
Google's parent Alphabet Inc. has a P/E of about 27, Apple Inc. 33, and Facebook Inc. 24.
From this data, we can't simply draw any conclusions because capital market dynamics and unpredictability are the norm. I'm just listing it for your reference.
**-22-**
# Extra:
# **There is only one heroism in the world: to see the world as it is and to love it.**
Source: 进击波财经 (id: jinbubo)


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